Targeting Fatal Traffic Collision Risk from Prior Non-Fatal Collisions in Toronto

Funder: University of CambridgeAbstract Research question How accurately can all locations of 44 fatal collisions in 1 year be forecasted across 1403 micro-areas in Toronto, based upon locations of all 1482 non-fatal collisions in the preceding 4 years? Data All 1482 non-fatal traffic collisions from 2008 through 2011 and all 44 fatal traffic collisions in 2012 in the City of Toronto, Ontario, were geocoded from public records to 1403 micro-areas called ‘hexagonal tessellations’. Methods The total number of non-fatal traffic collisions in Period 1 (2008 through 2011) was summed within each micro-area. The areas were then classified into seven categories of frequency of non-fatal collisions: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 or more. We then divided the number of micro-areas in each category in Period 1 into the total number of fatal traffic collisions in each category in Period 2 (2012). The sensitivity and specificity of forecasting fatal collision risk based on prior non-fatal collisions were then calculated for five different targeting strategies. Findings The micro-locations of 70.5% of fatal collisions in Period 2 had experienced at least 1 non-fatal collision in Period 1. In micro-areas that had zero non-fatal collisions during Period 1, only 1.7% had a fatal collision in Period 2. Across all areas, the probability of a fatal collision in the area during Period 2 increased with the number of non-fatal collisions in Period 1, with 6 or more non-fatal collisions in Period 1 yielding a risk of fatal collision in Period 2 that was 8.7 times higher than in areas with no non-fatal collisions. This pattern is evidence that targeting 25% of micro-areas effectively could cut total traffic fatalities in a given year by up to 50%. Conclusion Highly elevated risks of traffic fatalities can be forecasted based on prior non-fatal collisions, targeting a smaller portion of the city for more concentrated investment in saving lives. </jats:sec

Regional Differences in Adult Body Height in Kosovo

Th is study aimed to test average body heights in both the male and females of Kosovo, as well as the diff erences in heights of both sexes in relation to the Kosovo administrative regions. A total of 1623 subjects participated in the research: 830 boys and 793 girls all attending their fi nal year of secondary school. Th e anthropometric measurements were taken for subjects of both sexes from fi ve diff erent administrative regions of Kosovo. Th e measurements of body heights were taken by trained measurers in conformity with the ISAK protocol. Means and standard deviations were calculated for ages and body heights, as were frequencies for the calculation of the density of very short and very tall subjects. Th e results indicated that the average height of the male population of Kosovo was 179.52±5.96 centimetres and of the female population 165.72±4.93 centimetres. Th ese results classify both the male and female populations of Kosovo among the tallest in the world. Regarding the regional diff erences, some variations have been observed, and the diff erences in body heights among specifi c regions clearly confi rm the assumption that the population living in the Dinaric Alps is taller in relation to the rest of the population, while the specifi c average height of the central region, where the capital city is located, refl ects the expected situation conditioned by continuous migrations from all other parts of Kosovo, as well as the fact that there is a growing secular trend towards the territory of the capital city, due to better economic and living conditions

Comparative study of anthropometric measurement and body composition between junior handball and basketball players from the Serbian national league

Background and Study Aim: The purpose of this study was to describe anthropometric characteristics and body composition of junior handball and basketball players from the Serbian National League, as well as to make a comparison between them. Material and Methods: Sixty male athletes were enrolled in the study and they were divided into three groups: fifteen handball players, thirteen basketball players and thirty-two healthy sedentary subjects. All subjects were assessed for the anthropometric measures required for calculation of body composition variables, using standardized procedures recommended by previous studies. Data were analyzed using SPSS software and descriptive statistics was expressed as a mean (SD) for each variable, while the ANOVA and LSD Post Hoc tests were carried out to detect the effects of each type of sport. Results: The results showed there was no significant difference in body weight, body mass index or in bone content, while a significant difference was found in body height as well as in muscle mass and body fat. Conclusions: These findings may give coaches from the region better working knowledge, and suggest to them to follow recent methods of selection techniques and to be more careful during the process of talent identification

Comparative Study of Anthropometric Measurement and Body Composition between Junior Soccer and Volleyball Players from the Serbian National League

The purpose of this study was to describe anthropometric characteristics and body composition of junior soccer and volleyball players from the Serbian National League as well as to make a comparison between them. Seventy-one male athletes were enrolled in this study, divided into three groups: twenty-five soccer players, fourteen volleyball players and thirty-two healthy sedentary subjects. All subjects were assessed for anthropometric measures required for the calculation of body composition variables, using standardized procedures recommended by previous studies. Data was analysed using SPSS and the descriptive statistics were expressed as a mean (SD) for each variable, while the ANOVA and the LSD Post Hoc tests were carried out to detect effects of each type of sport. The results showed that a significant difference was found in variables height, weight, and body fat, but no significant difference was found in the remaining three variables, body mass index, muscle mass or bone content. Volleyball players were significantly taller and heavier than soccer players or subjects from the control group, while there was no significant difference between height and weight of soccer players and subjects from the control group. Subjects from the control group had significantly higher percentage of body fat than both soccer and volleyball players. Soccer players had the lowest percentage of body fat, while subjects from the control group had the highest values of the same variable. Therefore, these findings may give coaches from the region better working knowledge and suggest to them to follow recent selection process methods and to be more careful during the process of talent identification

Spatial distribution and developmental trajectories of crime versus crime severity: do not abandon the count-based model just yet

Abstract Purpose/background A new body of research that focuses on crime harm scores rather than counts of crime incidents has emerged. Specifically in the context of spatial analysis of crime, focusing on crime harm suggests that harm is more concentrated than counts, at the level of crime hot spots. It remains presently unclear what drives the concentration distributions, and whether the count-based model should be abandoned. Methods Cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of 6 year of spatiotemporal crime data in Toronto, Canada, to compare patterns and concentration of crime harm (measured in terms of the Crime Severity Index (CSI) against crime counts. Conditional probabilities, trajectory analyses, power few concentrations, and spatial Global Moran’s I are used to infer generalised trends from the data. Findings Overall CSI and crime counts tend to exhibit similar concentrations at the spatial micro levels, except against-the-body crimes such as violence which seems to drive nearly all the variations between the two measurement types. Violence harm spots tend to be more dispersed citywide and often do not remain constant year-to-year, whereas overall crime hotspots are more stable over time. Nevertheless, variations in disproportionally high crime hot spots are associated with total variations in crime, with as little as 1% increase in crime levels in these hot spots translating into substantial overall gains in recorded crime citywide. Conclusions Abandoning count-based models in spatial analysis of crime can lead to an incomplete picture of crime concentrations. Both models are needed not just for understanding spatial crime distributions but also for cost-effective allocation of policing resources. </jats:sec