Systematic Overestimation of Machine Learning Performance in Neuroimaging Studies of Depression

We currently observe a disconcerting phenomenon in machine learning studies in psychiatry: While we would expect larger samples to yield better results due to the availability of more data, larger machine learning studies consistently show much weaker performance than the numerous small-scale studies. Here, we systematically investigated this effect focusing on one of the most heavily studied questions in the field, namely the classification of patients suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and healthy controls. Drawing upon a balanced sample of $N = 1,868$ MDD patients and healthy controls from our recent international Predictive Analytics Competition (PAC), we first trained and tested a classification model on the full dataset which yielded an accuracy of 61%. Next, we mimicked the process by which researchers would draw samples of various sizes ($N=4$ to $N=150$) from the population and showed a strong risk of overestimation. Specifically, for small sample sizes ($N=20$), we observe accuracies of up to 95%. For medium sample sizes ($N=100$) accuracies up to 75% were found. Importantly, further investigation showed that sufficiently large test sets effectively protect against performance overestimation whereas larger datasets per se do not. While these results question the validity of a substantial part of the current literature, we outline the relatively low-cost remedy of larger test sets

Interleukin-6 gene (IL-6): a possible role in brain morphology in the healthy adult brain

Background: Cytokines such as interleukin 6 (IL-6) have been implicated in dual functions in neuropsychiatric disorders. Little is known about the genetic predisposition to neurodegenerative and neuroproliferative properties of cytokine genes. In this study the potential dual role of several IL-6 polymorphisms in brain morphology is investigated. Methodology: In a large sample of healthy individuals (N = 303), associations between genetic variants of IL-6 (rs1800795; rs1800796, rs2069833, rs2069840) and brain volume (gray matter volume) were analyzed using voxel-based morphometry (VBM). Selection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) followed a tagging SNP approach (e.g., Stampa algorigthm), yielding a capture 97.08% of the variation in the IL-6 gene using four tagging SNPs. Principal findings/results: In a whole-brain analysis, the polymorphism rs1800795 (−174 C/G) showed a strong main effect of genotype (43 CC vs. 150 CG vs. 100 GG; x = 24, y = −10, z = −15; F(2,286) = 8.54, puncorrected = 0.0002; pAlphaSim-corrected = 0.002; cluster size k = 577) within the right hippocampus head. Homozygous carriers of the G-allele had significantly larger hippocampus gray matter volumes compared to heterozygous subjects. None of the other investigated SNPs showed a significant association with grey matter volume in whole-brain analyses. Conclusions/significance: These findings suggest a possible neuroprotective role of the G-allele of the SNP rs1800795 on hippocampal volumes. Studies on the role of this SNP in psychiatric populations and especially in those with an affected hippocampus (e.g., by maltreatment, stress) are warranted.Bernhard T Baune, Carsten Konrad, Dominik Grotegerd, Thomas Suslow, Eva Birosova, Patricia Ohrmann, Jochen Bauer, Volker Arolt, Walter Heindel, Katharina Domschke, Sonja Schöning, Astrid V Rauch, Christina Uhlmann, Harald Kugel and Udo Dannlowsk

Interaction testing and polygenic risk scoring to estimate the association of common genetic variants with treatment resistance in schizophrenia

Importance About 20% to 30% of people with schizophrenia have psychotic symptoms that do not respond adequately to first-line antipsychotic treatment. This clinical presentation, chronic and highly disabling, is known as treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). The causes of treatment resistance and their relationships with causes underlying schizophrenia are largely unknown. Adequately powered genetic studies of TRS are scarce because of the difficulty in collecting data from well-characterized TRS cohorts. Objective To examine the genetic architecture of TRS through the reassessment of genetic data from schizophrenia studies and its validation in carefully ascertained clinical samples. Design, Setting, and Participants Two case-control genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of schizophrenia were performed in which the case samples were defined as individuals with TRS (n=10 501) and individuals with non-TRS (n=20 325). The differences in effect sizes for allelic associations were then determined between both studies, the reasoning being such differences reflect treatment resistance instead of schizophrenia. Genotype data were retrieved from the CLOZUK and Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) schizophrenia studies. The output was validated using polygenic risk score (PRS) profiling of 2 independent schizophrenia cohorts with TRS and non-TRS: a prevalence sample with 817 individuals (Cardiff Cognition in Schizophrenia [CardiffCOGS]) and an incidence sample with 563 individuals (Genetics Workstream of the Schizophrenia Treatment Resistance and Therapeutic Advances [STRATA-G]). Main Outcomes and Measures GWAS of treatment resistance in schizophrenia. The results of the GWAS were compared with complex polygenic traits through a genetic correlation approach and were used for PRS analysis on the independent validation cohorts using the same TRS definition. Results The study included a total of 85 490 participants (48 635 [56.9%] male) in its GWAS stage and 1380 participants (859 [62.2%] male) in its PRS validation stage. Treatment resistance in schizophrenia emerged as a polygenic trait with detectable heritability (1% to 4%), and several traits related to intelligence and cognition were found to be genetically correlated with it (genetic correlation, 0.41-0.69). PRS analysis in the CardiffCOGS prevalence sample showed a positive association between TRS and a history of taking clozapine (r² = 2.03%; P = .001), which was replicated in the STRATA-G incidence sample (r² = 1.09%; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance In this GWAS, common genetic variants were differentially associated with TRS, and these associations may have been obscured through the amalgamation of large GWAS samples in previous studies of broadly defined schizophrenia. Findings of this study suggest the validity of meta-analytic approaches for studies on patient outcomes, including treatment resistance.Funding/Support: This work was supported by Medical Research Council Centre grant MR/ L010305/1, Medical Research Council Program grant MR/P005748/1, and Medical Research Council Project grants MR/L011794/1 and MC_PC_17212 to Cardiff University and by the National Centre for Mental Health, funded by the Welsh Government through Health and Care Research Wales. This work acknowledges the support of the Supercomputing Wales project, which is partially funded by the European Regional Development Fund via the Welsh Government. Dr Pardiñas was supported by an Academy of Medical Sciences Springboard Award (SBF005\1083). Dr Andreassen was supported by the Research Council of Norway (grants 283798, 262656, 248980, 273291, 248828, 248778, and 223273); KG Jebsen Stiftelsen, South-East Norway Health Authority, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant 847776). Dr Ajnakina was supported by an National Institute for Health Research postdoctoral fellowship (PDF-2018-11-ST2-020). Dr Joyce was supported by the University College London Hospitals/UCL University College London Biomedical Research Centre. Dr Kowalec received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement (793530) from the government of Canada Banting postdoctoral fellowship programme and the University of Manitoba. Dr Sullivan was supported by the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, D0886501), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme (COSYN, 610307) and the US National Institute of Mental Health (U01 MH109528 and R01 MH077139). The Psychiatric Genomics Consortium was partly supported by the National Institute Of Mental Health (grants R01MH124873). The Sweden Schizophrenia Study was supported by the National Institute Of Mental Health (grant R01MH077139). The STRATA consortium was supported by a Stratified Medicine Programme grant to Dr MacCabe from the Medical Research Council (grant MR/L011794/1), which funded the research and supported Drs Pardiñas, Smart, Kassoumeri, Murray, Walters, and MacCabe. Dr Smart was supported by a Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South London at King’s College Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust. The AESOP (US) cohort was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (grant G0500817). The Belfast (UK) cohort was funded by the Research and Development Office of Northern Ireland. The Bologna (Italy) cohort was funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, project EU-GEI). The Genetics and Psychosis project (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research Specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Mental Health Foundation Trust (SLAM) and the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King’s College London; Psychiatry Research Trust; Maudsley Charity Research Fund; and the European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2009-241909, project EU-GEI). The Lausanne (Switzerland) cohort was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 320030_135736/1, 320030-120686, 324730-144064, 320030-173211, and 171804); the National Center of Competence in Research Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases from the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 51AU40_125759); and Fondation Alamaya. The Oslo (Norway) cohort was funded by the Research Council of Norway (grant 223273/F50, under the Centers of Excellence funding scheme, 300309, 283798) and the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (grants 2006233, 2006258, 2011085, 2014102, 2015088, and 2017-112). The Paris (France) cohort was funded by European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, project EU-GEI). The Prague (Czech Republic) cohort was funded by the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic (grant NU20-04-00393). The Santander (Spain) cohort was funded by the following grants to Dr Crespo-Facorro: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants FIS00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, and PI060507), Plan Nacional de Drogas Research (grant 2005-Orden sco/3246/2004), SENY Fundatio Research (grant 2005-0308007), Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla (grant A/02/07, API07/011) and Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Fund for Regional Development (grants SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R). The West London (UK) cohort was funded by The Wellcome Trust (grants 042025, 052247, and 064607)

Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Patients with Aortic Aneurysms

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that vascular disease confers vulnerability to a late-onset of depressive illness and the impairment of specific cognitive functions, most notably in the domains of memory storage and retrieval. Lower limb athero-thrombosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) have both been previously associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms possibly due to associated intracerebral vascular disease or systemic inflammation, hence suggesting that these illnesses may be regarded as models to investigate the vascular genesis of neuropsychiatric symptoms. The aim of this study was to compare neuropsychiatric symptoms such as depression, anxiety and a variety of cognitive domains in patients who had symptoms of peripheral athero-thrombosis (intermittent claudication) and those who had an asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm AAA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a cross-sectional study, 26 participants with either intermittent claudication or AAA were assessed using a detailed neuropsychiatric assessment battery for various cognitive domains and depression and anxiety symptoms (Hamilton Depression and Anxiety Scales). Student t test and linear regression analyses were applied to compare neuropsychiatric symptoms between patient groups. AAA participants showed greater levels of cognitive impairment in the domains of immediate and delayed memory as compared to patients who had intermittent claudication. Cognitive dysfunction was best predicted by increasing aortic diameter. CRP was positively related to AAA diameter, but not to cognitive function. AAA and aortic diameter in particular were associated with cognitive dysfunction in this study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: AAA patients are at a higher risk for cognitive impairment than intermittent claudication patients. Validation of this finding is required in a larger study, but if confirmed could suggest that systemic factors peculiar to AAA may impact on cognitive function.Bernhard T. Baune, Steven J. Unwin, Frances Quirk and Jonathan Golledg

Obesity and nutrition behaviours in Western and Palestinian outpatients with severe mental illness

Extent: 7p.Background: While people with severe mental illness have been found to be more overweight and obese in Western nations, it is unknown to what extent this occurs in Middle Eastern nations and which eating behaviours contribute to obesity in Middle Eastern nations. Method: A total of 665 responses were obtained from patients with serious mental illness attending out-patient clinics in Western developed countries (Germany, UK and Australia; n = 518) and Palestine (n = 147). Patients were evaluated by ICD-10 clinical diagnosis, anthropometric measurements and completed a self-report measure of frequencies of consuming different food items and reasons for eating. Nutritional habits were compared against a Western normative group. Results: More participants from Palestine were overweight or obese (62%) compared to Western countries (47%). In the Western sample, obese patients reported consuming more low-fat products (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.02-6.33) but also greater eating due to negative emotions (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.31-2.60) than patients with a healthy body-mass index. In contrast, obese patients from Palestine reported increased consumption of unhealthy snacks (OR 3.73 95% CI 1.16-12.00). Conclusion: Patients with mental illness have poorer nutritional habits than the general population, particularly in Western nations. Separate interventions to improve nutritional habits and reduce obesity are warranted between Western nations and Palestine.David Jakabek, Frances Quirk, Martin Driessen, Yousef Aljeesh and Bernhard T Baun

Dopamine transporter (DAT1) and dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4) genotypes differentially impact on electrophysiological correlates of error processing

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Fats and Factors: Lipid Profiles Associate with Personality Factors and Suicidal History in Bipolar Subjects

Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) have shown efficacy in the treatment of bipolar disorder, however their specific role in treating the illness is unclear. Serum PUFA and dietary intakes of PUFA associate with suicidal behavior in epidemiological studies. The objective of this study was to assess serum n-3 and n-6 PUFA levels in bipolar subjects and determine possible associations with suicidal risk, including suicidal history and relevant personality factors that have been associated with suicidality. We studied 27 bipolar subjects using the NEO-PI to assess the big five personality factors, structured interviews to verify diagnosis and assess suicidal history, and lipomics to quantify n-3 and n-6 PUFA in serum. We found positive associations between personality factors and ratios of n-3 PUFA, suggesting that conversion of short chain to long chain n-3s and the activity of enzymes in this pathway may associate with measures of personality. Thus, ratios of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) to alpha linolenic acid (ALA) and the activity of fatty acid desaturase 2 (FADS2) involved in the conversion of ALA to DHA were positively associated with openness factor scores. Ratios of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to ALA and ratios of EPA to DHA were positively associated with agreeableness factor scores. Finally, serum concentrations of the n-6, arachidonic acid (AA), were significantly lower in subjects with a history of suicide attempt compared to non-attempters. The data suggest that specific lipid profiles, which are controlled by an interaction between diet and genetics, correlate with suicidal history and personality factors related to suicidal risk. This study provides preliminary data for future studies to determine whether manipulation of PUFA profiles (through diet or supplementation) can affect personality measures and disease outcome in bipolar subjects and supports the need for further investigations into individualized specific modulations of lipid profiles to add adjunctive value to treatment paradigms

Computer Therapy for the Anxiety and Depressive Disorders Is Effective, Acceptable and Practical Health Care: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Depression and anxiety disorders are common and treatable with cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), but access to this therapy is limited. Objective: Review evidence that computerized CBT for the anxiety and depressive disorders is acceptable to patients and effective in the short and longer term. Method: Systematic reviews and data bases were searched for randomized controlled trials of computerized cognitive behavior therapy versus a treatment or control condition in people who met diagnostic criteria for major depression, panic disorder, social phobia or generalized anxiety disorder. Number randomized, superiority of treatment versus control (Hedges g) on primary outcome measure, risk of bias, length of follow up, patient adherence and satisfaction were extracted. Principal Findings: 22 studies of comparisons with a control group were identified. The mean effect size superiority was 0.88 (NNT 2.13), and the benefit was evident across all four disorders. Improvement from computerized CBT was maintained for a median of 26 weeks follow-up. Acceptability, as indicated by adherence and satisfaction, was good. Research probity was good and bias risk low. Effect sizes were non-significantly higher in comparisons with waitlist than with active treatment control conditions. Five studies comparing computerized CBT with traditional face-to-face CBT were identified, and both modes of treatment appeared equally beneficial. Conclusions: Computerized CBT for anxiety and depressive disorders, especially via the internet, has the capacity to provide effective acceptable and practical health care for those who might otherwise remain untreated.10 page(s

The association between genetically determined ABO blood types and major depressive disorder

ABO blood types and their corresponding antigens have long been assumed to be related to different human diseases. So far, smaller studies on the relationship between mental disorders and blood types yielded contra-dicting results. In this study we analyzed the association between ABO blood types and lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD). We performed a pooled analysis with data from 26 cohorts that are part of the MDD working group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC). The dataset included 37,208 individuals of largely Eu-ropean ancestry of which 41.6% were diagnosed with lifetime MDD. ABO blood types were identified using three single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ABO gene: rs505922, rs8176746 and rs8176747. Regression analyses were performed to assess associations between the individual ABO blood types and MDD diagnosis as well as putative interaction effects with sex. The models were adjusted for sex, cohort and the first ten genetic principal components. The percentage of blood type A was slightly lower in cases than controls while blood type O was more prominent in cases. However, these differences were not statistically significant. Our analyses found no evidence of an association between ABO blood types and major depressive disorder

Early Trauma and Increased Risk for Physical Aggression during Adulthood: The Moderating Role of MAOA Genotype

Previous research has reported that a functional polymorphism in the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene promoter can moderate the association between early life adversity and increased risk for violence and antisocial behavior. In this study of a combined population of psychiatric outpatients and healthy volunteers (N = 235), we tested the hypothesis that MAOA genotype moderates the association between early traumatic life events (ETLE) experienced during the first 15 years of life and the display of physical aggression during adulthood, as assessed by the Aggression Questionnaire. An ANOVA model including gender, exposure to early trauma, and MAOA genotype as between-subjects factors showed significant MAOA×ETLE (F1,227 = 8.20, P = 0.005) and gender×MAOA×ETLE (F1,227 = 7.04, P = 0.009) interaction effects. Physical aggression scores were higher in men who had experienced early traumatic life events and who carried the low MAOA activity allele (MAOA-L). We repeated the analysis in the subgroup of healthy volunteers (N = 145) to exclude that the observed G×E interactions were due to the inclusion of psychiatric patients in our sample and were not generalizable to the population at large. The results for the subgroup of healthy volunteers were identical to those for the entire sample. The cumulative variance in the physical aggression score explained by the ANOVA effects involving the MAOA polymorphism was 6.6% in the entire sample and 12.1% in the sub-sample of healthy volunteers. Our results support the hypothesis that, when combined with exposure to early traumatic life events, low MAOA activity is a significant risk factor for aggressive behavior during adulthood and suggest that the use of dimensional measures focusing on behavioral aspects of aggression may increase the likelihood of detecting significant gene-by-environment interactions in studies of MAOA-related aggression