«Репетиции смерти» в стихотворениях “Блюз беженцев» У.Х. Одена и «Беженцы» Р. Джаррелла (к вопросу осмысления проблемы беженцев в американской поззии о второй мировой войне)

The article deals with the best American poems devoted to refugees of the world war II. The comparative analyses based on the thematic and stylistic similarity was carried out. Various forms of the main artistic device – repetition – were studied

Intra-seasonal rainfall variability and herbivory affect the interaction outcome of two dryland plant species

Increases in drought frequency in combination with overgrazing may result in degradation of (semi-) arid ecosystems. Facilitative interactions between plants are a key mechanism in preventing degradation, but it is poorly understood how they respond to increased stress by combined drought and herbivory. In this study, we used an ecohydrological model, to simulate the plant growth of two plant species interacting with each other under different rainfall and herbivory pressure scenarios. The functional traits of the two modeled plants were based on a prior field experiment in southeastern Spain, in which an unpalatable “nurse” species protected a palatable protégé’ species from herbivory. Moreover, the nurse species was more drought-resistant; that is, it had a lower wilting point, whereas the protégé species had a higher optimal growth rate. Firstly, we investigated the coexistence of the two plant species growing under a single limiting resource, focusing on the effect of intra-seasonal rainfall variability. We found that longer periods without rainfall within the wet season resulted in stable coexistence, whereas nearly constant rainfall led to competitive exclusion of the protégé by the nurse species. Secondly, we investigated how plant interactions varied along our studied gradients. Using the neighbor effect intensity and importance indices, we found that competitive effects increased with more constant rainfall. Moreover, higher herbivory rates resulted in increased facilitative effects of the nurse on the protégé species, but facilitative effects could only prevail over competitive effects under currently observed or higher intra-seasonal rainfall variability. This study highlights the relevance of intra-seasonal rainfall variability in explaining coexistence of species in dryland ecosystems and shows that increasing intra-seasonal rainfall variability or herbivory pressure can result in more facilitative effects from a nurse species. This information is crucial to obtain a better insight into the long-term coexistence of species, and the resulting stability of dryland ecosystems in response to future climate change

Гоголевские традиции в творчестве М. Булгакова

Model studies suggest that semiarid ecosystems with patterned vegetation can respond in a nonlinear way to climate change. This means that gradual changes can result in a rapid transition to a desertified state. Previous model studies focused on the response of patterned semiarid ecosystems to changes in mean annual rainfall. The intensity of rain events, however, is projected to change as well in the coming decades. In this paper, we study the effect of changes in rainfall intensity on the functioning of patterned semiarid ecosystems with a spatially explicit model that captures rainwater partitioning and runoff-runon processes with simple event-based process descriptions. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model revealed that rainfall intensity is a key parameter in explaining patterning of vegetation in semiarid ecosystems as low mean rainfall intensities do not allow for vegetation patterning to occur. Surprisingly, we found that, for a constant annual rainfall rate, both an increase and a decrease in mean rainfall intensity can trigger desertification. An increase negatively affects productivity as a greater fraction of the rainwater is lost as runoff. This can result in a shift to a bare desert state only if the mean rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of bare soil. On the other hand, a decrease in mean rainfall intensity leads to an increased fraction of rainwater infiltrating in bare soils, remaining unavailable to plants. Our findings suggest that considering rainfall intensity as a variable may help in assessing the proximity to regime shifts in patterned semiarid ecosystems and that monitoring losses of resource through runoff and bare soil infiltration could be used to determine ecosystem resilience. Key Points Rainfall intensity controls patterning and the resilience of arid ecosystems Both an increase and decrease in rainfall intensity can trigger desertification In line with observations, three types of rain events were identified in our mode

Linking Vegetation-Climate-Fire Relationships in Sub-Saharan Africa to Key Ecological Processes in Two Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Africa is largely influenced by fires, which play an important ecological role influencing the distribution and structure of grassland, savanna and forest biomes. Here vegetation strongly interacts with climate and other environmental factors, such as herbivory and humans. Fire-enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) display high uncertainty in predicting the distribution of current tropical biomes and the associated transitions, mainly due to the way they represent the main ecological processes and feedbacks related to water and fire. The aim of this study is to evaluate the outcomes of two state-of-the–art DGVMs, LPJ-GUESS and JSBACH, also currently used in two Earth System Models (ESMs), in order to assess which key ecological processes need to be included or improved to represent realistic interactions between vegetation cover, precipitation and fires in sub-Saharan Africa. To this end, we compare models and remote-sensing data, analyzing the relationships between tree and grass cover, mean annual rainfall, average rainfall seasonality and average fire intervals, using generalized linear models, and we compare the patterns of grasslands, savannas, and forests in sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that LPJ-GUESS (with a simple fire-model and complex vegetation description) performs well in regions of low precipitation, while in humid and mesic areas the representation of the fire process should probably be improved to obtain more open savannas. JSBACH (with a complex fire-model and a simple vegetation description) can simulate a vegetation-fire feedback that can maintain open savannas at intermediate and high precipitation, although this feedback seems to have stronger effects than observed, while at low precipitation JSBACH needs improvements in the representation of tree-grass competition and drought effects. This comparative process-based analysis permits to highlight the main factors that determine the tropical vegetation distribution in models and observations in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting possible improvements in DGVMs and, consequently, in ESM simulations for future projections. Given the need to use carbon storage in vegetation as a climate mitigation measure, these models represent a valuable tool to improve our understanding of the sustainability of vegetation carbon pools as a carbon sink and the vulnerability to disturbances such as fire

Revealing patterns of local species richness along environmental gradients with a novel network tool

How species richness relates to environmental gradients at large extents is commonly investigatedaggregating local site data to coarser grains. However, such relationships often change with the grainof analysis, potentially hiding the local signal. Here we show that a novel network technique, the"method of reflections", could unveil the relationships between species richness and climate withoutsuch drawbacks. We introduced a new index related to potential species richness, which revealedlarge scale patterns by including at the local community level information about species distributionthroughout the dataset (i.e., the network). The method effectively removed noise, identifying howfar site richness was from potential. When applying it to study woody species richness patterns inSpain, we observed that annual precipitation and mean annual temperature explained large parts ofthe variance of the newly defined species richness, highlighting that, at the local scale, communitiesin drier and warmer areas were potentially the species richest. Our method went far beyond whatgeographical upscaling of the data could unfold, and the insights obtained strongly suggested that itis a powerful instrument to detect key factors underlying species richness patterns, and that it couldhave numerous applications in ecology and other fields.Comunidad de MadridMinisterio de Economía y Competitivida

Long-term transients help explain regime shifts in consumer-renewable resource systems

As planetary boundaries loom, there is an urgent need to develop sustainable equilibriums between societies and the resources they consume, thereby avoiding regime shifts to undesired states. Transient system trajectories to a stable state may differ substantially, posing significant challenges to distinguishing sustainable from unsustainable trajectories. We use stylized models to show how feedbacks between anthropogenic harvest regimes and resource availability drive transient dynamics. We show how substantial time lags may occur between interventions and social-ecological outcomes, and that sudden system collapses need not be linked to recent environmental changes. Historical reconstructions of island state populations show a variety of transient dynamics that closely corresponds to model expectations based on island differences in productivity and harvesting regime. We conclude that vulnerable social-ecological systems may persist when the population:resource ratio remains within a viable range of intermediate (rather than small) values, which implies that averting environmental crises may require counter-intuitive measures

Post-fire Regeneration Traits of Understorey Shrub Species Modulate Successional Responses to High Severity Fire in Mediterranean Pine Forests

Recurrent fires can impede the spontaneous recruitment capacity of pine forests. Empirical studies have suggested that this can lead to a prolonged replacement of pine forest by shrubland, especially if shrub species are pyrophytic. Model-based studies, however, have suggested that post-fire succession of pine forest under current climatic conditions will eventually tend towards the dominance of oaks under high fire severity and recurrence. These previous modelling studies did not address the role of the various post-fire regeneration traits of the understory shrub species. Considering the dichotomy of obligate seeder vs. resprouter species, either obligate or facultative resprouter, we hypothesized that when the shrubs present are post-fire seeders, the oaks steadily occupy the forest, whereas resprouter shrub species might compete with oaks and delay or arrest post-fire succession. To test this hypothesis, we developed a dynamic, cellular automaton model for simulating post-fire successional transitions in pine forests, including shrubs, pines and oaks, and stochastic fires of regular frequency. Our results showed a strong tendency towards oak dominance as final model state and a very reduced role of fire recurrence in this final state, with low yearly acorn input delaying oak dominance. Most relevantly, and in line with our hypothesis, the trend towards oak dominance depended markedly on the two types of shrub species, being delayed by resprouter species, which extended the shrub-dominated succession stage for several centuries. Our simulation results supported the view that the type of understorey species should be a key consideration in post-fire restoration strategies aiming to enhance fire resilience.This research has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement no. 283068 (CASCADE project). Thanks are due to FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020), through national funds and the post-doctoral research contract of Jacob Keizer (FCT-IF/01465/2015), and to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for financial support (CGL2017-89804-R) of the work of Susana Bautista. The work of Paula Maia was partially supported by the project SuSPiRe (PTDC/ASP-SIL/30983/2017) funded by FCT, through COMPETE2020—Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização (POCI)

The role of ecosystem transpiration in creating alternate moisture regimes by influencing atmospheric moisture convergence

The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vegetation cover remains a challenge. Recently, changes in plant transpiration across the Amazon basin were shown to be associated disproportionately with changes in rainfall, suggesting that even small declines in transpiration (e.g., from deforestation) would lead to much larger declines in rainfall. Here, constraining these results by the law of mass conservation, we show that in a sufficiently wet atmosphere, forest transpiration can control atmospheric moisture convergence such that increased transpiration enhances atmospheric moisture import and resulting water yield. Conversely, in a sufficiently dry atmosphere increased transpiration reduces atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. This previously unrecognized dichotomy can explain the otherwise mixed observations of how water yield responds to re-greening, as we illustrate with examples from China's Loess Plateau. Our analysis indicates that any additional precipitation recycling by additional vegetation increases precipitation but decreases local water yield and steady-state runoff. Therefore, in the drier regions and early stages of ecological restoration, the role of vegetation can be confined to precipitation recycling, while once a wetter stage is achieved, additional vegetation enhances atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. Evaluating the transition between regimes, and recognizing the potential of vegetation for enhancing moisture convergence, are crucial for characterizing the consequences of deforestation and for motivating and guiding ecological restoration.Comment: Revised version; response to the reviewers can be found in Appendix A, 39 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Increased aridity drives post‐fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

Recent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest. A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire‐responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France. The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post‐fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity. Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post‐fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post‐fire recovery. Including plant fire‐responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean‐type vegetation under climate‐change scenarios

Музично-етнографічні польові дослідження (на прикладі обстеження історичної Хотинщини)

The author of the article researches the approaches of musical-ethnographic work, its methods and goals, as well as the choice of the specific territory and its exploration defined by them. The author comments on his intention to examine the area of Khotyn, which now is a part of Chernivtsy region; explains the methods of examining the territory. Pluses and minuses of the existing song collections dedicated to the given district are under consideration in this article. In conclusion short information about Northern Bessarabia and its population is given