Using Field Data to Assess Model Predictions of Surface and Ground Fuel Consumption by Wildfire in Coniferous Forests of California

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests

The promise and peril of intensive-site-based ecological research: insights from the Hubbard Brook ecosystem study

Abstract. Ecological research is increasingly concentrated at particular locations or sites. This trend reflects a variety of advantages of intensive, site-based research, but also raises important questions about the nature of such spatially delimited research: how well does site based research represent broader areas, and does it constrain scientific discovery?We provide an overview of these issues with a particular focus on one prominent intensive research site: the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA. Among the key features of intensive sites are: long-term, archived data sets that provide a context for new discoveries and the elucidation of ecological mechanisms; the capacity to constrain inputs and parameters, and to validate models of complex ecological processes; and the intellectual cross-fertilization among disciplines in ecological and environmental sciences. The feasibility of scaling up ecological observations from intensive sites depends upon both the phenomenon of interest and the characteristics of the site. An evaluation of deviation metrics for the HBEF illustrates that, in some respects, including sensitivity and recovery of streams and trees from acid deposition, this site is representative of the Northern Forest region, of which HBEF is a part. However, the mountainous terrain and lack of significant agricultural legacy make the HBEF among the least disturbed sites in the Northern Forest region. Its relatively cool, wet climate contributes to high stream flow compared to other sites. These similarities and differences between the HBEF and the region can profoundly influence ecological patterns and processes and potentially limit the generality of observations at this and other intensive sites. Indeed, the difficulty of scaling up may be greatest for ecological phenomena that are sensitive to historical disturbance and that exhibit the greatest spatiotemporal variation, such as denitrification in soils and the dynamics of bird communities. Our research shows that end member sites for some processes often provide important insights into the behavior of inherently heterogeneous ecological processes. In the current era of rapid environmental and biological change, key ecological responses at intensive sites will reflect both specific local drivers and regional trends

Determinants of spread in an urban landscape by an introduced lizard

Context: Urban landscapes are a mixture of built structures, human-altered vegetation, and remnant semi-natural areas. The spatial arrangement of abiotic and biotic conditions resulting from urbanization doubtless influences the establishment and spread of non-native species in a city. Objectives: We investigated the effects of habitat structure, thermal microclimates, and species coexistence on the spread of a non-native lizard (Anolis cristatellus) in the Miami metropolitan area of South Florida (USA). Methods: We used transect surveys to estimate lizard occurrence and abundance on trees and to measure vegetation characteristics, and we assessed forest cover and impervious surface using GIS. We sampled lizard body temperatures, habitat use, and relative abundance at multiple sites. Results: At least one of five Anolis species occupied 79 % of the 1035 trees surveyed in primarily residential areas, and non-native A. cristatellus occupied 25 % of trees. Presence and abundance of A. cristatellus were strongly associated with forest patches, dense vegetation, and high canopy cover, which produced cooler microclimates suitable for this species. Presence of A. cristatellus was negatively associated with the ecologically similar non-native A. sagrei, resulting in reduced abundance and a shift in perch use of A. cristatellus. Conclusions: The limited spread of A. cristatellus in Miami over 35 years is due to the patchy, low-density distribution of wooded habitat, which limits dispersal by diffusion. The presence of congeners may also limit spread. Open habitats—some parks, yards and roadsides—contain few if any A. cristatellus, and colonization of isolated forest habitat appears to depend on human-mediated dispersal

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into theforeseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage

Immunogenetic studies of juvenile dermatomyositis

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66141/1/j.1399-0039.1983.tb00371.x.pd

Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

The rise and fall of methanotrophy following a deepwater oil-well blowout

The blowout of the Macondo oil well in the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010 injected up to 500,000 tonnes of natural gas, mainly methane, into the deep sea1. Most of the methane released was thought to have been consumed by marine microbes between July and August 20102, 3. Here, we report spatially extensive measurements of methane concentrations and oxidation rates in the nine months following the spill. We show that although gas-rich deepwater plumes were a short-lived feature, water column concentrations of methane remained above background levels throughout the rest of the year. Rates of microbial methane oxidation peaked in the deepwater plumes in May and early June, coincident with a rapid rise in the abundance of known and new methane-oxidizing microbes. At this time, rates of methane oxidation reached up to 5,900 nmol l−1 d−1—the highest rates documented in the global pelagic ocean before the blowout4. Rates of methane oxidation fell to less than 50 nmol l−1 d−1 in late June, and continued to decline throughout the remainder of the year. We suggest the precipitous drop in methane consumption in late June, despite the persistence of methane in the water column, underscores the important role that physiological and environmental factors play in constraining the activity of methane-oxidizing bacteria in the Gulf of Mexico

Do specialty registrars change their attitudes, intentions and behaviour towards reporting incidents following a patient safety course?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reporting incidents can contribute to safer health care, as an awareness of the weaknesses of a system could be considered as a starting point for improvements. It is believed that patient safety education for specialty registrars could improve their attitudes, intentions and behaviour towards incident reporting. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of a two-day patient safety course on the attitudes, intentions and behaviour concerning the voluntary reporting of incidents by specialty registrars.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A patient safety course was designed to increase specialty registrars' knowledge, attitudes and skills in order to recognize and cope with unintended events and unsafe situations at an early stage. Data were collected through an 11-item questionnaire before, immediately after and six months after the course was given.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The response rate at all three points in time assessed was 100% (n = 33). There were significant changes in incident reporting attitudes and intentions immediately after the course, as well as during follow-up. However, no significant changes were found in incident reporting behaviour.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is shown that patient safety education can have long-term positive effects on attitudes towards reporting incidents and the intentions of registrars. However, further efforts need to be undertaken to induce a real change in behaviour.</p

Developing agreement on never events in primary care dentistry:an international eDelphi study

Introduction: Never events (NEs) are a subset of serious patient safety incidents that should not occur if appropriate preventive measures are implemented. Although there is a consensus in medicine, there is no agreement on NEs in dentistry. Aim: To identify NEs in primary care dentistry. Method: We undertook an electronic Delphi exercise to develop an international agreement on NEs for primary care dentistry. Results: We initially identified candidate NEs through a scoping review of the literature and then analysed dentistry-related reports in a national incident reporting system. Next, we invited an international panel of 41 experts to complete two rounds of questionnaires; 32 agreed to participate (78%) and completed the first round and 29/41 (71%) members completed the second round. We provided anonymised controlled feedback between rounds and used a cut-off of 80% agreement to define consensus. Consensus was achieved for 23 out of 42 candidate NEs. These related to routine assessment, and pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative stages of dental procedures. Discussion and conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first international expert consensus-based approach that has identified NEs for primary care dentistry. We suggest that dental regulators consider these to support quality assessment and governance activities