LINEAR AND NONLINEAR MIXED-EFFECTS MODELS

Recent developments in computational methods for maximum likelihood (ML) or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation of parameters in general linear mixed-effects models have made the analysis of data in typical agricultural settings much easier. With software such as SAS PROC MIXED we are able to handle data from random-effects one-way classifications, from blocked designs including incomplete blocked designs, from hierarchical designs such as splitplot designs, and other types of data that may be described as repeated measures or longitudinal data or growth-curve data. It is especially helpful that the new computational methods do not depend on balance in the data so we are able to deal more easily with observational studies or with randomly missing data in a designed experiment . We describe some of the new computational approaches and how they are implemented in the nlme3.0 library for the S-PLUS language. One of the most powerful features of this language is the graphics capabilities, especially the trellis graphics facilities developed by Bill Cleveland and his coworkers at Bell Labs. Although most participants in this conference may be more familiar with SAS, and most of the models described here can be fit with PROC MIXED or the NLiNMIX macro or new PROC NLM IXED in SAS version 7, some exposure to the combination of graphical display and model-fitting approaches from S-PLUS may be informative . We show how data exploration with trellis graphics, followed by fitting and comparing mixedeffects models, followed by graphical assessment of the fitted model can be used in a variety of situations. On some occasions, such as modeling growth curves, a linear trend or polynomial trend or other types of linear statistical models for the within-subject time dependence are just not going to do an adequate job of representing the data. In those cases, a nonlinear model is more appropriate. We show how the concept of a random coefficient model can be extended to nonlinear models so as to fit nonlinear mixed-effects models

Exact solutions for supersymmetric stationary black hole composites

Four dimensional N=2 supergravity has regular, stationary, asymptotically flat BPS solutions with intrinsic angular momentum, describing bound states of separate extremal black holes with mutually nonlocal charges. Though the existence and some properties of these solutions were established some time ago, fully explicit analytic solutions were lacking thus far. In this note, we fill this gap. We show in general that explicit solutions can be constructed whenever an explicit formula is known in the theory at hand for the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy of a single black hole as a function of its charges, and illustrate this with some simple examples. We also give an example of moduli-dependent black hole entropy.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figur

The Value of Information Technology-Enabled Diabetes Management

Reviews different technologies used in diabetes disease management, as well as the costs, benefits, and quality implications of technology-enabled diabetes management programs in the United States

The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system

Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established “percolation paradigm” to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia solani grows through a population of discrete nutrient sites on a lattice, with nutrient sites representing hosts. The degree of host heterogeneity within different populations is adjusted by changing the proportion and the nutrient concentration of nutrient sites. The experimental data are analysed via Bayesian inference methods, estimating pathogen transmission parameters for each individual population. We find a significant, negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion, thereby validating the theory. The value of the correlation is also in remarkably good agreement with the theoretical predictions. We briefly discuss how our results can be exploited in the design and implementation of disease control strategies

Peculiar scaling of self-avoiding walk contacts

The nearest neighbor contacts between the two halves of an N-site lattice self-avoiding walk offer an unusual example of scaling random geometry: for N going to infinity they are strictly finite in number but their radius of gyration Rc is power law distributed, ~ Rc^{-\tau}, where \tau>1 is a novel exponent characterizing universal behavior. A continuum of diverging lengths scales is associated to the Rc distribution. A possibly super-universal \tau=2 is also expected for the contacts of a self-avoiding or random walk with a confining wall.Comment: 4 pages, 5 Postscript figures, uses psfig.sty; some sentences clarifie

Comparison of honey bee queens overwintered individually and in groups

Productivity of honey bee queens, as measured by area of sealed worker brood and net weight of colonies, was generally higher with queens overwintered in 2-frame nuclei, than with queens overwintered in a group. Poor acceptance and supercedure of group overwintered queens suggest that this method of storage is not yet acceptable for commercial use. Survival of the nucleus queens was low in outdoor 2-frame units during the winter, but improved with an indoor system. Overwintering queens indoors in 2-frame nuclei and outdoors in 3-5 frame nuclei with supplemental feeding of carbohydrate in late winter should provide a source of queens which could partially fulfill market demands in spring

OPENMENDEL: A Cooperative Programming Project for Statistical Genetics

Statistical methods for genomewide association studies (GWAS) continue to improve. However, the increasing volume and variety of genetic and genomic data make computational speed and ease of data manipulation mandatory in future software. In our view, a collaborative effort of statistical geneticists is required to develop open source software targeted to genetic epidemiology. Our attempt to meet this need is called the OPENMENDELproject (https://openmendel.github.io). It aims to (1) enable interactive and reproducible analyses with informative intermediate results, (2) scale to big data analytics, (3) embrace parallel and distributed computing, (4) adapt to rapid hardware evolution, (5) allow cloud computing, (6) allow integration of varied genetic data types, and (7) foster easy communication between clinicians, geneticists, statisticians, and computer scientists. This article reviews and makes recommendations to the genetic epidemiology community in the context of the OPENMENDEL project.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

BPS Spectrum, Indices and Wall Crossing in N=4 Supersymmetric Yang-Mills Theories

BPS states in N=4 supersymmetric SU(N) gauge theories in four dimensions can be represented as planar string networks with ends lying on D3-branes. We introduce several protected indices which capture information on the spectrum and various quantum numbers of these states, give their wall crossing formula and describe how using the wall crossing formula we can compute all the indices at all points in the moduli space.Comment: LaTeX file, 33 pages, 15 figure

A Perspective on Economic Impact

The institutions responsible for water resources management in the United States have originated as political responses to major social issues. Each agency institutionalized a procedure for structuring and comparing alternatives in the formulation of its total program. Each agency originally sought to promote effective resolution of its social issue (flood control, development of arid lands, soil erosion, etc.), but more recent efforts have sought better coordination among agency practices through a common procedure largely derived from economic theory. Any procedure, however, varies in application with the interpretation and judgment of individual planners. Today, public pressures have brought political directives requiring consideration of the local and nationwide impacts of projects that occur through direct, indirect, and secondary means in the spheres of economic, social and environmental effects. The body of the study reviews fourteen specific impact issues with the goals of providing planners a methodology for dealing with each one and of providing the theoretically inclined a basis for improving each methodology. The issues are reservoir effects on local property values, reservoir effects on the economy of the local county, changes in income and employment patterns around large reservoirs, patterns of land use change around reservoirs, reservoir effects on revenues and expenditures of local government, reservoir recreation benefits, application of marginal economic analysis to reservoir recreation planning, economic value of natural areas for recreational hunting, for stream fishing, the personal value of real property to its owner, reservoir project caused income redistribution, achievement of more flexible procedures for reservoir operation in order to match changes in demand for project output with time, estimation of flood damages by the time pattern in which they occur, and operation of reservoir systems for flood control. Each study ls presented in detail in a referenced report, and this report discusses the significance of the findings of the studies, individually and as a group