Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle

Do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle? We answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm-level disturbances alone. We show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle, without appealing to aggregate shocks. We offer an analytical characterization of the law of motion of the aggregate state in this class of models – the firm size distribution – and show that aggregate output and productivity dynamics display: (i) persistence, (ii) volatility and (iii) time-varying second moments. We explore the key role of moments of the firm size distribution – and, in particular, the role of large firm dynamics – in shaping aggregate fluctuations, theoretically, quantitatively and in the data.ERC, Keynes Fun

Fluctuations in Hadronic and Nuclear Collisions

We investigate several fluctuation effects in high-energy hadronic and nuclear collisions through the analysis of different observables. To introduce fluctuations in the initial stage of collisions, we use the Interacting Gluon Model (IGM) modified by the inclusion of the impact parameter. The inelasticity and leading-particle distributions follow directly from this model. The fluctuation effects on rapidity distributions are then studied by using Landau's Hydrodynamic Model in one dimension. To investigate further the effects of the multiplicity fluctuation, we use the Longitudinal Phase-Space Model, with the multiplicity distribution calculated within the hydrodynamic model, and the initial conditions given by the IGM. Forward-backward correlation is obtained in this way.Comment: 22 pages, RevTex, 8 figures (included); Invited paper to the special issue of Foundation of Physics dedicated to Mikio Namiki's 70th. birthda

An Adaptive Thresholding Method for BTV Estimation Incorporating PET Reconstruction Parameters: A Multicenter Study of the Robustness and the Reliability

Objective. The aim of this work was to assess robustness and reliability of an adaptive thresholding algorithm for the biological target volume estimation incorporating reconstruction parameters. Method. In a multicenter study, a phantom with spheres of different diameters (6.5–57.4 mm) was filled with 18F-FDG at different target-to-background ratios (TBR: 2.5–70) and scanned for different acquisition periods (2–5 min). Image reconstruction algorithms were used varying number of iterations and postreconstruction transaxial smoothing. Optimal thresholds (TS) for volume estimation were determined as percentage of the maximum intensity in the cross section area of the spheres. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify relevant predictors of TS. Results. The goodness of the model fit was high (R2: 0.74–0.92). TBR was the most significant predictor of TS. For all scanners, except the Gemini scanners, FWHM was an independent predictor of TS. Significant differences were observed between scanners of different models, but not between different scanners of the same model. The shrinkage on cross validation was small and indicative of excellent reliability of model estimation. Conclusions. Incorporation of postreconstruction filtering FWHM in an adaptive thresholding algorithm for the BTV estimation allows obtaining a robust and reliable method to be applied to a variety of different scanners, without scanner-specific individual calibration

Beta-Blocker Use in Older Hospitalized Patients Affected by Heart Failure and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Italian Survey From the REPOSI Register

Beta (β)-blockers (BB) are useful in reducing morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) and concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Nevertheless, the use of BBs could induce bronchoconstriction due to β2-blockade. For this reason, both the ESC and GOLD guidelines strongly suggest the use of selective β1-BB in patients with HF and COPD. However, low adherence to guidelines was observed in multiple clinical settings. The aim of the study was to investigate the BBs use in older patients affected by HF and COPD, recorded in the REPOSI register. Of 942 patients affected by HF, 47.1% were treated with BBs. The use of BBs was significantly lower in patients with HF and COPD than in patients affected by HF alone, both at admission and at discharge (admission, 36.9% vs. 51.3%; discharge, 38.0% vs. 51.7%). In addition, no further BB users were found at discharge. The probability to being treated with a BB was significantly lower in patients with HF also affected by COPD (adj. OR, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.37-0.67), while the diagnosis of COPD was not associated with the choice of selective β1-BB (adj. OR, 95% CI: 1.33, 0.76-2.34). Despite clear recommendations by clinical guidelines, a significant underuse of BBs was also observed after hospital discharge. In COPD affected patients, physicians unreasonably reject BBs use, rather than choosing a β1-BB. The expected improvement of the BB prescriptions after hospitalization was not observed. A multidisciplinary approach among hospital physicians, general practitioners, and pharmacologists should be carried out for better drug management and adherence to guideline recommendations

Pain and Frailty in Hospitalized Older Adults

Introduction: Pain and frailty are prevalent conditions in the older population. Many chronic diseases are likely involved in their origin, and both have a negative impact on quality of life. However, few studies have analysed their association. Methods: In light of this knowledge gap, 3577 acutely hospitalized patients 65 years or older enrolled in the REPOSI register, an Italian network of internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards, were assessed to calculate the frailty index (FI). The impact of pain and some of its characteristics on the degree of frailty was evaluated using an ordinal logistic regression model after adjusting for age and gender. Results: The prevalence of pain was 24.7%, and among patients with pain, 42.9% was regarded as chronic pain. Chronic pain was associated with severe frailty (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.38–2.07). Somatic pain (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.23–2.07) and widespread pain (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 0.93–2.78) were associated with frailty. Osteoarthritis was the most common cause of chronic pain, diagnosed in 157 patients (33.5%). Polymyalgia, rheumatoid arthritis and other musculoskeletal diseases causing chronic pain were associated with a lower degree of frailty than osteoarthritis (OR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.28–0.85). Conclusions: Chronic and somatic pain negatively affect the degree of frailty. The duration and type of pain, as well as the underlying diseases associated with chronic pain, should be evaluated to improve the hospital management of frail older people

"Delirium Day": A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 \ub1 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys

The multifaceted spectrum of liver cirrhosis in older hospitalised patients: Analysis of the REPOSI registry

Background: Knowledge on the main clinical and prognostic characteristics of older multimorbid subjects with liver cirrhosis (LC) admitted to acute medical wards is scarce. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of LC among older patients admitted to acute medical wards and to assess the main clinical characteristics of LC along with its association with major clinical outcomes and to explore the possibility that well-distinguished phenotypic profiles of LC have classificatory and prognostic properties. Methods: A cohort of 6,193 older subjects hospitalised between 2010 and 2018 and included in the REPOSI registry was analysed. Results: LC was diagnosed in 315 patients (5%). LC was associated with rehospitalisation (age-sex adjusted hazard ratio, [aHR] 1.44; 95% CI, 1.10-1.88) and with mortality after discharge, independently of all confounders (multiple aHR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.37-3.22), but not with in-hospital mortality and incident disability. Three main clinical phenotypes of LC patients were recognised: relatively fit subjects (FIT, N = 150), subjects characterised by poor social support (PSS, N = 89) and, finally, subjects with disability and multimorbidity (D&M, N = 76). PSS subjects had an increased incident disability (35% vs 13%, P < 0.05) compared to FIT. D&M patients had a higher mortality (in-hospital: 12% vs 3%/1%, P < 0.01; post-discharge: 41% vs 12%/15%, P < 0.01) and less rehospitalisation (10% vs 32%/34%, P < 0.01) compared to PSS and FIT. Conclusions: LC has a relatively low prevalence in older hospitalised subjects but, when present, accounts for worse post-discharge outcomes. Phenotypic analysis unravelled the heterogeneity of LC older population and the association of selected phenotypes with different clinical and prognostic features

Antidiabetic Drug Prescription Pattern in Hospitalized Older Patients with Diabetes

Objective: To describe the prescription pattern of antidiabetic and cardiovascular drugs in a cohort of hospitalized older patients with diabetes. Methods: Patients with diabetes aged 65 years or older hospitalized in internal medicine and/or geriatric wards throughout Italy and enrolled in the REPOSI (REgistro POliterapuie SIMI—Società Italiana di Medicina Interna) registry from 2010 to 2019 and discharged alive were included. Results: Among 1703 patients with diabetes, 1433 (84.2%) were on treatment with at least one antidiabetic drug at hospital admission, mainly prescribed as monotherapy with insulin (28.3%) or metformin (19.2%). The proportion of treated patients decreased at discharge (N = 1309, 76.9%), with a significant reduction over time. Among those prescribed, the proportion of those with insulin alone increased over time (p = 0.0066), while the proportion of those prescribed sulfonylureas decreased (p < 0.0001). Among patients receiving antidiabetic therapy at discharge, 1063 (81.2%) were also prescribed cardiovascular drugs, mainly with an antihypertensive drug alone or in combination (N = 777, 73.1%). Conclusion: The management of older patients with diabetes in a hospital setting is often sub-optimal, as shown by the increasing trend in insulin at discharge, even if an overall improvement has been highlighted by the prevalent decrease in sulfonylureas prescription