Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation

Using HCAHPS data to model correlates of medication understanding at hospital discharge

Background: Hospitals are challenged to improve hospital transitions to home and are held accountable through public reporting. Design: This cross-sectional study used patients’ self-reported experience data from the publicly reported Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) survey to describe correlates of medication understanding at hospital discharge, using data collected from adult patients discharged from one Midwestern community hospital (N=154). Results: The final logistic regression model included four correlates of medication understanding: 1) nurse always communicates well, 2) physician always communicates well, 3) new prescriptions during hospital stay, and 4) very good or better mental health, and these classified 72.6% of the cases. Significant correlates of the patient strongly agreeing that they understood discharge medications were the “nurse always communicates well” (odds ratio =3.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 7.66) and “very good or better self-perceived mental health” (odds ratio =2.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 4.64). Conclusion: HCAHPS data can be used to model correlates of medication understanding, which are then useful for evaluating intervention effects following quality improvement

Attentional biases towards body expressions of pain in men and women

This study investigated whether there are gender differences in attention to bodily expressions of pain and core emotions. Three experiments are reported using the attentional dot probe task. Images of men and women displaying bodily expressions, including pain, were presented. The task was used to determine whether participants’ attention was drawn towards or away from target expressions. Inconsistent evidence was found for an attentional bias towards body expressions, including pain. While these biases were affected by gender, patterns varied across the Experiments. Experiment 1, which had a presentation duration of 500 ms, found a relative bias towards the location of male body expressions compared to female expressions. Experiments 2 and 3 varied stimulus exposure times by including both shorter and longer duration conditions (e.g., 100 vs. 500 vs. 1250 ms). In these experiments, a bias towards pain was confirmed. Gender differences were also found, especially in the longer presentation conditions. Expressive body postures captured the attention of women for longer compared to men. These results are discussed in light of their implications for why there are gender differences in attention to pain, and what impact this has on pain behaviour. Perspective:- We show that men and women might differ in how they direct their attention towards bodily expressions, including pain. These results have relevance to understanding how carers might attend to the pain of others, as well as highlighting the wider role that social-contextual factors have in pain

Infectious diarrhea in tourists staying in a resort hotel.

An outbreak of infectious diarrhea with 70 laboratory-confirmed cases (58 with Giardia lamblia) and 107 probable cases occurred in U.K. tourists who stayed in a hotel in Greece. After a cluster of six cases in persons who had stayed at the hotel was reported, the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre began active case ascertainment. This outbreak illustrates the value of an approach to surveillance that integrates routine surveillance data with active case ascertainment

Research-to-Practice Brief: Promising Evidence that Early Head Start Can Prevent Child Maltreatment

This brief addresses two main questions in a sample of Early Head Start eligible children: 1) the number and type of maltreatment episodes and 2) the impact of Early Head Start on child and family involvement in the child welfare system. These findings are especially important given the lack of scalable and effective preventive interventions. In addition, they are also timely given the recent interest in fostering collaborations between early care and education programs and child welfare agencies, agencies responsible for overseeing child protection from maltreatment (OHS & ACYF, 2010; ACYF & OHS, 2011; ACYF & OCC, 2011). The current study represents a first look at the impact of Early Head Start on child maltreatment. We are continuing to collect data and will have more information in the upcoming years

It’s Not as Simple as it Sounds: Problems and Solutions in Accessing and Using Administrative Child Welfare Data for Evaluating the Impact of Early Childhood Interventions

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in using administrative data collected by state child welfare agencies as a source of information for research and evaluation. The challenges of obtaining access to and using these data, however, have not been well documented. This study describes the processes used to access child welfare records in six different states and the approach to combining and using the information gathered to evaluate the impact of the Early Head Start program on children’s involvement with the child welfare system from birth through age eleven. We provide “lessons learned” for researchers who are attempting to use this information, including being prepared for long delays in access to information, the need for deep understanding of how child welfare agencies record and code information, and for considerable data management work for translating agency records into analysis-ready datasets. While accessing and using this information is not easy, and the data have a number of limitations, we suggest that the benefits can outweigh the challenges and that these records can be a useful source of information for policy-relevant child welfare research

Hypernormal science and its significance

‘Hypernormal science’ has minimal potential for contestation on matters of principle and practice so that information exchange can be unproblematic. Sciences comprise hypernormal domains and more contestable ‘normal’ domains where knowledge diffusion, like acquiring linguistic fluency, depends on face-to-face interaction. Hypernormal domains belonging to molecular biology are contrasted with normal domains in gravitational wave detection physics. Sciences as a whole should not be confused with their typical domains. The analysis has immediate implications for proposed transitions out of the Covid-19 lockdown, proposed solutions to the replication crisis, and, perhaps, our understanding of the early development of social studies of science

An analysis of glaucoma repeat measures assessment results: Are core competencies enough?

Purpose: The need to validate core competency skills in qualified optometrists wishing to take part in extended roles in glaucoma care has been questioned. This analysis examines the ability of qualified optometrists to perform relevant core competency skills under standardised objective assessment conditions to explore whether such validation is justified. It also investigates if there are associations between performance, gender and length of time since qualification. Methods: Anonymised data from the Cardiff University assessment programme for the Wales Optometry Postgraduate Education Centre (WOPEC) Local Optical Committee Support Unit glaucoma referral filtering and monitoring pathway delivered between January 2017 and March 2020 were analysed. Results were combined with demographic data from the General Optical Council register of optometrists in the UK to investigate associations between performance and practitioner characteristics, namely length of time since qualification and gender. Results: The assessment results of 2215 optometrists practising in England (approximately 15% of all UK registered optometrists and 30% of all optometrists registered in England) were analysed. Failure rates for first time assessment in each of five objective structured clinical examination style practical assessments were 8.5% (van Herick); 8.8% (slit lamp binocular indirect ophthalmoscopy); 10.1% (Goldmann applanation tonometry calibration); 21.9% (Goldmann applanation tonometry) and 23.3% (case scenario interpretation and management). There were either no associations or at most very weak associations between performance and practitioner characteristics. Conclusions: Our results suggest that these competencies are not universally present in optometrists practising in England and that ongoing training and assessment of these competencies is justified for entry into extended roles. There are no meaningful associations between performance in these assessments and gender or time since qualification

Mapping preictal and ictal haemodynamic networks using video-electroencephalography and functional imaging

Ictal patterns on scalp-electroencephalography are often visible only after propagation, therefore rendering localization of the seizure onset zone challenging. We hypothesized that mapping haemodynamic changes before and during seizures using simultaneous video-electroencephalography and functional imaging will improve the localization of the seizure onset zone. Fifty-five patients with ≥2 refractory focal seizures/day, and who had undergone long-term video-electroencephalography monitoring were included in the study. ‘Preictal' (30 s immediately preceding the electrographic seizure onset) and ictal phases, ‘ictal-onset'; ‘ictalestablished' and ‘late ictal', were defined based on the evolution of the electrographic pattern and clinical semiology. The functional imaging data were analysed using statistical parametric mapping to map ictal phase-related haemodynamic changes consistent across seizures. The resulting haemodynamic maps were overlaid on co-registered anatomical scans, and the spatial concordance with the presumed and invasively defined seizure onset zone was determined. Twenty patients had typical seizures during functional imaging. Seizures were identified on video-electroencephalography in 15 of 20, on electroencephalography alone in two and on video alone in three patients. All patients showed significant ictal-related haemodynamic changes. In the six cases that underwent invasive evaluation, the ictal-onset phase-related maps had a degree of concordance with the presumed seizure onset zone for all patients. The most statistically significant haemodynamic cluster within the presumed seizure onset zone was between 1.1 and 3.5 cm from the invasively defined seizure onset zone, which was resected in two of three patients undergoing surgery (Class I post-surgical outcome) and was not resected in one patient (Class III post-surgical outcome). In the remaining 14 cases, the ictal-onset phase-related maps had a degree of concordance with the presumed seizure onset zone in six of eight patients with structural-lesions and five of six non-lesional patients. The most statistically significant haemodynamic cluster was localizable at sub-lobar level within the presumed seizure onset zone in six patients. The degree of concordance of haemodynamic maps was significantly better (P < 0.05) for the ictal-onset phase [entirely concordant/concordant plus (13/20; 65%) + some concordance (4/20; 20%) = 17/20; 85%] than ictal-established [entirely concordant/concordant plus (5/13; 38%) + some concordance (4/13; 31%) = 9/13; 69%] and late ictal [concordant plus (1/9; 11%) + some concordance (4/9; 44%) = 5/9; 55%] phases. Ictal propagation-related haemodynamic changes were also seen in symptomatogenic areas (9/20; 45%) and the default mode network (13/20; 65%). A common pattern of preictal changes was seen in 15 patients, starting between 98 and 14 s before electrographic seizure onset, and the maps had a degree of concordance with the presumed seizure onset zone in 10 patients. In conclusion, preictal and ictal haemodynamic changes in refractory focal seizures can non-invasively localize seizure onset at sub-lobar/gyral level when ictal scalp-electroencephalography is not helpfu

Probing Feedback in Galaxy Formation with Millimeter-wave Observations

Achieving a precise understanding of galaxy formation in a cosmological context is one of the great challenges in theoretical astrophysics, due to the vast range of spatial scales involved in the relevant physical processes. Observations in the millimeter bands, particularly those using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation as a "backlight", provide a unique probe of the thermodynamics of these processes, with the capability to directly measure the density, pressure, and temperature of ionized gas. Moreover, these observations have uniquely high sensitivity into the outskirts of the halos of galaxies and clusters, including systems at high redshift. In the next decade, the combination of large spectroscopic and photometric optical galaxy surveys and wide-field, low-noise CMB surveys will transform our understanding of galaxy formation via these probes.Comment: Submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Surve