Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information

According to the United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, “natural hazards are processes or phenomena that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage”. They are at the interface between human and natural systems. From this perspective, natural hazards are a multidimensional domain including environmental issues, the private and public sector and citizens and governance ranging from local to supranational. The vast amount of information and data necessary for comprehensive hazard and risk assessment present many challenges regarding the lack of accessibility, comparability, quality, organisation and dissemination of natural hazards spatial data. In order to mitigate these limitations, an interoperability framework has been developed and published in the INSPIRE Data Specification on Natural Risk Zones—technical guidelines (DS) document. This framework provides means for facilitating access, integration, harmonisation and dissemination of natural hazard data from different domains and sources. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the paper highlights the key aspects of the interoperability to the various natural hazard communities and illustrates the applicability of the interoperability framework developed in the DS. And secondly, the paper “translates” into common language the main features and potentiality of the interoperability framework of the DS for a wider audience of scientists and practitioners in the natural hazard domain. In this paper, the four pillars of the interoperability framework will be presented. First, the adoption of a common terminology for the natural hazard domain will be addressed. A common data model to facilitate cross-domain data integration will then follow. Thirdly, the common methodology developed to express qualitative or quantitative assessments of natural hazards is presented. Fourthly, the extensible classification schema for natural hazards developed from a literature review and key reference documents from the contributing community of practice is discussed. Furthermore, the applicability of the interoperability framework for the various stakeholder groups is illustrated. This paper closes discussing main advantages, limitations and next steps regarding the sustainability and evolution of the interoperability framework

Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, forests are among the most complex systems and their interaction with the ongoing climate change – and the multifaceted chain of potential cascading consequences for European biodiversity, environment, society and economy – is not yet well understood. The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as a case study: a main European tree species often distributed in bioclimatically complex areas, spanning over various forest types and with multiple populations adapted to different conditions. The modular modelling architecture is based on relative distance similarity (RDS) estimates which link field observations with bioclimatic patterns, projecting their change under climate scenarios into the expected potential change of suitable habitat for tree species. Robust management of uncertainty is also examined. Both technical and interpretation core aspects are presented in an integrated overview. The semantics of the array of quantities under focus and the uneven sources of uncertainty at the continental scale are discussed (following the semantic array programming paradigm), with an effort to offer some minimal guidance on terminology, meaning and methodological limitations not only of the proposed approach, but also of the broad available literature – whose heterogeneity and partial ambiguity might potentially reverberate at the science-policy interface. ► How to cite: ◄ de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J, Barredo, J.I., 2017. Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species. Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. 58 pp. ISBN:978-92-79-66704-6 , https://doi.org/10.2760/29650

Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, forests are among the most complex systems and their interaction with the ongoing climate change – and the multifaceted chain of potential cascading consequences for European biodiversity, environment, society and economy – is not yet well understood. The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as a case study: a main European tree species often distributed in bioclimatically complex areas, spanning over various forest types and with multiple populations adapted to different conditions. The modular modelling architecture is based on relative distance similarity (RDS) estimates which link field observations with bioclimatic patterns, projecting their change under climate scenarios into the expected potential change of suitable habitat for tree species. Robust management of uncertainty is also examined. Both technical and interpretation core aspects are presented in an integrated overview. The semantics of the array of quantities under focus and the uneven sources of uncertainty at the continental scale are discussed (following the semantic array programming paradigm), with an effort to offer some minimal guidance on terminology, meaning and methodological limitations not only of the proposed approach, but also of the broad available literature – whose heterogeneity and partial ambiguity might potentially reverberate at the science-policy interface. ► How to cite: ◄ de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J, Barredo, J.I., 2017. Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species. Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. 58 pp. ISBN:978-92-79-66704-6 , https://doi.org/10.2760/29650

A multi-component flood risk assessment in the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean)

Coastal regions are the areas most threatened by natural hazards, with floods being the most frequent and significant threat in terms of their induced impacts, and therefore, any management scheme requires their evaluation. In coastal areas, flooding is a hazard associated with various processes acting at different scales: coastal storms, flash floods, and sea level rise (SLR). In order to address the problem as a whole, this study presents a methodology to undertake a preliminary integrated risk assessment that determines the magnitude of the different flood processes (flash flood, marine storm, SLR) and their associated consequences, taking into account their temporal and spatial scales. The risk is quantified using specific indicators to assess the magnitude of the hazard (for each component) and the consequences in a common scale. This allows for a robust comparison of the spatial risk distribution along the coast in order to identify both the areas at greatest risk and the risk components that have the greatest impact. This methodology is applied on the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), which can be considered representative of developed areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The results obtained characterise this coastline as an area of relatively low overall risk, although some hot spots have been identified with high-risk values, with flash flooding being the principal risk process

A georeferenced dataset of drought and heat-induced tree mortality in Europe

Global warming is altering climate patterns and the frequency and magnitude of heat and drought events affecting ecosystems worldwide. One of the effects of these changes is tree mortality driven by heat and drought, which have effects in forest ecosystem functions, services and biodiversity. Therefore, systematic observations and georeferenced data on tree mortality is a fundamental prerequisite for a more comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions between climate and forests. Tree mortality is a complex process for which literature presents major knowledge gaps, making predictions on the fate of climate change challenging. Some of the gaps are due to limited spatio-temporal data on tree mortality. Despite extensive tree mortality and forest dieback, associated with drought and temperature stress, have been reported in Europe, a publicly available systematic collection of georeferenced data reporting tree mortality is lacking. The dataset presented in this paper is a contribution to mitigate the lack of information on tree mortality. Our dataset builds on scientific and peer-reviewed literature and provides a georeferenced set of documented tree mortality occurrences in the period 1970-2017 in Europe. The aim of this study is to describe the creation of the dataset and to provide the data file to interested users

Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.land use modeling; flood risk; flood hazard; urban growth