Representing the effects of oligopolistic competition on risk-neutral prices in power markets

Forward transactions are becoming increasingly important in most of electricity markets. In this view, this paper develops a methodology able to capture the complexities of power markets and incorporate them into the framework of risk-neutral probabilities. This is done by the statement of a model that split up the power price dynamics into two different components: on the one hand, a component aimed at representing costs and market power, which will be based on a static, non-cooperative game; on the other,a component representing short-term deviations from the static model

A fundamental power price model with oligopolistic competition representation

Most popular approaches for modeling electricity prices rely at present on microeconomics rationale. They aim to study the interaction between decisions of agents in the market, and usually represent the impact of uncertainty in such decisions in a simplified way. The usual methodology of microeconomics models is the study of the interaction between the profit-maximization problems faced by each of the firms. On the other hand, there is a growing literature that describes the power price dynamics from the financial standpoint, through the statement of a more or less complex stochastic process. However, this theoretical framework is based on the assumption of perfect competition, and therefore the stochastic process may not capture important features of price dynamics. In this paper, we suggest a mixed approach, in the sense that the price is thought of as the composition of a long-term component, where the strategic behavior is represented, and a short-term source of uncertainty that agents cannot take into account when deciding their strategies. The complex distributional implications of the oligopolistic behavior of market players are then given by the long-term-component dynamics, whereas the short-term component captures the uncertainty related to the operation of power systems. In addition, this modeling approach allows for a direct description of the long-term volatility of power markets, which is usually hard to estimate through statistical models

A fundamental power price model with oligopolistic competition representation

Most popular approaches for modeling electricity prices rely at present on microeconomics rationale. They aim to study the interaction between decisions of agents in the market, and usually represent the impact of uncertainty in such decisions in a simplified way. The usual methodology of microeconomics models is the study of the interaction between the profit-maximization problems faced by each of the firms. On the other hand, there is a growing literature that describes the power price dynamics from the financial standpoint, through the statement of a more or less complex stochastic process. However, this theoretical framework is based on the assumption of perfect competition, and therefore the stochastic process may not capture important features of price dynamics. In this paper, we suggest a mixed approach, in the sense that the price is thought of as the composition of a long-term component, where the strategic behavior is represented, and a short-term source of uncertainty that agents cannot take into account when deciding their strategies. The complex distributional implications of the oligopolistic behavior of market players are then given by the long-term-component dynamics, whereas the short-term component captures the uncertainty related to the operation of power systems. In addition, this modeling approach allows for a direct description of the long-term volatility of power markets, which is usually hard to estimate through statistical models

Representing the effects of oligopolistic competition on risk-neutral prices in power markets

Forward transactions are becoming increasingly important in most of electricity markets. In this view, this paper develops a methodology able to capture the complexities of power markets and incorporate them into the framework of risk-neutral probabilities. This is done by the statement of a model that split up the power price dynamics into two different components: on the one hand, a component aimed at representing costs and market power, which will be based on a static, non-cooperative game; on the other,a component representing short-term deviations from the static model

Short-term evolution of forward curves and volatility in illiquid power market

We propose in this paper a model for the description of electricity spot prices, which we use to describe the dynamics of forward curves. The spot price model is based on a long-term/short-term decomposition, where the price is thought of as made up of two factors: A long-term equilibrium level and short-term movements around the equilibrium. We use a non-parametric approach to model the equilibrium level of power prices, and a mean-reverting process with GARCH volatility to describe the dynamics of the short-term component. Then, the model is used to derive the expression of the short-term dynamics of the forward curve implicit in spot prices. The rationale for the approach is that information concerning forward prices is not available in most of power markets, and the direct modeling of the forward curve is a difficult task. Moreover, power derivatives are typically written on forward contracts, and usually based on average prices of forward contracts. Then, it is difficult to obtain analytical expressions for the forward curves. The model of forward prices allows for the valuation of power derivatives, as well as the calculation of the volatilities and correlations required in risk management activities. Finally, the methodology is proven in the context of the Spanish wholesale marke

Los servicios de cercanías en Madrid y Barcelona. Una visión histórica

Este trabajo traza una breve historia comparada del transporte ferroviario de cercanías de Madrid y Barcelona, desde sus comienzos durante la dictadura de Franco hasta 2015. La justificación del estudio radica en que las dos ciudades absorben la inmensa mayor parte de esos servicios; pero también en que las diferencias en las inversiones realizadas han sido y son un argumento político relevante que cuestiona el papel de la Administración Central como gestor de las infraestructuras de transporte. Lo cierto es que Madrid y Barcelona son, desde la perspectiva del transporte periurbano, ciudades con problemas muy diferentes, que además partían de situaciones históricas no comparables. De ahí la necesidad de realizar una análisis histórico y geográfico que sobrepase las limitaciones impuestas por el empleo de herramientas económicas. La principal conclusión es que entre Madrid y Barcelona ha habido un proceso de convergencia en la dotación de servicios de transporte.; This paper draws a brief comparative history of suburban transport in Madrid and Barcelona, from its beginnings in the Franco’s dictatorship to 2015. The justification of this study is that the two cities absorb the vast majority of those services; but also that the differences in the investments have been and are a relevant political argument that questions the role of the Central Administration as manager of transport infrastructures. The truth is that Madrid and Barcelona are, from the perspective of periurban transport, cities with very different problems, which also started from historical situations not comparable. Hence the need to make a historical and geographical analysis that exceeds the limitations of economic tools. The main conclusion of this paper is that between Madrid and Barcelona there has been a process of convergence in the provision of transport services

Mapping the Runner’s Mind: A New Methodology for Real-Time Tracking of Cognitions

Recording cognitions in real-time while running has been identified as one of the major limitations in the field of sport psychology. In this study, a new methodology was developed to overcome this limitation. For this purpose, 17 competitive long distance runners participated voluntarily. The experimental session consisted in identifying and storing cognitions (thoughts, emotions, sensations and mental images) while performing a 30 minutes treadmill run. In addition, participants were asked to register which of these cognitions were perceived as unpleasant. The mapping task showed a total of 1154 cognitions recorded, mostly thoughts. In general, during the session, cognitions perceived as unpleasant represented 13.43% of the total recorded. These cognitions were mainly directed to physical sensations that resulted from stimulations derived from the physical effort of running. Consequently, it is possible to claim an interaction relationship between sensations and exercise workload. The results attempt to demonstrate that the study of cognitions in real-time is deemed suitable during running

Satisfacción con la vida y autoeficacia en jugadores de baloncesto en silla de ruedas

El objetivo del estudio fue analizar la relación entre satisfacción con la vida, y autoeficacia de movilidad en personas con discapacidad física que practican baloncesto en silla de ruedas. El estudio siguió un diseño ex post facto. La muestra fue de 103 participantes. Las mediciones se mostraron fiables, con altos coeficientes de consistencia interna. Los deportistas declararon altos niveles de satisfacción con la vida y de autoeficacia de movilidad en silla de ruedas. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en dichas variables en función del nivel de excelencia competitiva. Se concluye que la satisfacción con la vida está más relacionada con la percepción de autoeficacia de movilidad en silla de ruedas que con la edad o la clasificación funcional de los deportistas.The main aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between life satisfaction and mobility self-efficacy in wheelchair basketball players. The study was developed with an ex post facto design. 103 people with physical disabilities took part in this study. The measurements were reliable, with high internal consistency. Subjects showed high levels of satisfaction with life and self-efficacy of mobility in a wheelchair. There were no outstanding differences in these variables in relation to the level of sporting excellence. Satisfaction with life was more related to the perception of wheelchair mobility self efficacy than to age or functional classification as a sportsperson.O objectivo do estudo foi analisar a relação entre satisfação com a vida, e autoeficácia de mobilidade em pessoas com incapacidade física que praticam basquetebol em cadeira de rodas. O estudo seguiu um delineamento ex post facto. A amostra foi constituída por 103 participantes. As medidas revelaram ser fiáveis, com altos coeficientes de consistência interna. Os atletas revelaram altos níveis de satisfação com a vida e de autoeficácia de mobilidade em cadeira de rodas. Não se verificaram diferenças significativas nestas variáveis em função do nível de excelência competitiva. Conclui-se que a satisfação com a vida está mais relacionada com a percepção de autoeficácia de mobilidade em cadeira de rodas que com a idade ou a classificação funcional dos desportistas

Relación entre estados de ánimo y rendimiento en voleibol masculino de alto nivel

This paper presents an ex post facto study. The aim was to analyse the relationship between pre-competition mood states and sports performance in a team of twelve male players from the under 20 category during the Brazil 2011 World Volleyball Championship. The Profile of Mood States (POMS) was used to measure mood, while sports performance was measured using two instruments: on the one hand, a scale for the coach's perception of his players' sports performance and, on the other, Data Volley System software. The data was analysed using descriptive and non-parametric inferential statistics. The participants showed a high drive, moderate stress, and low anger, with minimal fatigue and depression. The paper outlines significant relationships among the variables under analysis. It is noted that when the team lost a match, thus losing out on the chance to win a medal, the players' moods changed: they felt less stressed and their drive fell, while their sense of depression and fatigue rose.El presente estudio, valiéndose de un diseño ex post facto retrospectivo, analizó la relación entre los estados de ánimo precompetitivos y el rendimiento deportivo de un equipo de doce jugadores de voleibol durante el campeonato del mundo de Brasil-2011, categoría masculina sub-20. Para la medición de los estados de ánimo se utilizó el instrumento Profile of Moods States (POMS). La medición del rendimiento deportivo se llevó a cabo a partir de dos instrumentos: por una parte, una escala de valoración o percepción de los entrenadores a propósito del rendimiento de sus jugadores y, por otra, el software Data Voley System. Se procedió con estadística descriptiva y estadística inferencial no paramétrica. Los participantes mostraron un perfil anímico de alto vigor, moderada tensión, baja cólera, y mínima fatiga y depresión. Se detalla la relación entre las variables estudiadas y se discute cómo el hecho de perder un partido que tuvo como consecuencia la exclusión del equipo a la opción de ganar medalla, influyó hacia una menor tensión y vigor de los jugadores, a la vez que aumentó la depresión y la fatiga.O presente estudo, utilizando um delineamento ex post facto retrospectivo, analisou a relação entre os estados de humor pré-competitivos e o rendimento desportivo de uma equipa de doze jogadores de voleibol durante o Campeonato do Mundo Brasil 2011, escalão sub-20 masculino. Para avaliação dos estados de humor foi utilizado o Profile of Moods States (POMS). A avaliação do rendimento desportivo foi levado a cabo através de dois instrumentos: um primeiro, uma escala de avaliação ou percepção dos treinadores a propósito do rendimento dos seus jogadores, e outro, o software Data Voley System. Procedeu-se a uma análise estatística descritiva e inferencial não paramétrica. Os participantes revelaram um perfil de alto vigor, moderada tensão, baixa cólera, fadiga e depressão mínimas. Explana-se a relação entre as variáveis estudadas e discute-se como o facto da derrota num jogo que teve como consequência a exclusão da equipa da luta pela medalha, influenciou uma menor tensão e vigor dos jogadores, aumentando por sua vez a depressão e fadiga nos mesmos