Modeling impacts of climate change scenario over Turkey

Bu çalışmada izlenen yöntem, Türkiye ve çevresi üzerinde, günümüz ve gelecek için NASA-Sonlu Hacim Genel Dolaşım Modeli (fvGCM) tarafından üretilen projeksiyonların, ICTP-Bölgesel İklim Modeli (RegCM3) kullanılarak dinamik olarak ölçek küçültülmesidir. Günümüz (1961-1990, RF) ve gelecek (2071-2100, A2) simülasyonları için, Hükümetlerarası İklim Değşikliği Paneli (IPCC) tarafından belirlenmiş sera gazları emisyon senaryoları dikkate alınmıştır. A2 ve RF simülasyonlarının sıcaklık ve yağış için yapılan mevsimsel analizleri Türkiye’nin iklimsel bölgeleri üzerinde alansal ortalama alınarak ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. A2 simülasyonuna göre, Türkiye üzerinde sıcaklıklardaki en dramatik değişim yaz mevsiminde Ege Bölgesi üzerindeki 5 ila 6 °C’ler arasındaki artıştır. Kış ayları dışındaki mevsimlerde artış, 3-4 °C arasında değişmektedir. Gelecek simülasyonundaki minimum artış, kış mevsiminden 2-3 °C olarak hesaplanmıştır. Yine A2 simülasyonunda, Doğu Karadeniz dağları boyunca uzanan bölgede kış yağışlarıdaki artış, rüzgar paterninin değişmesiyle orografik etkinin güçlenmesine bağlıdır. Türkiye’nin güneyi üzerinde de rüzgar paterninin güneyli değişimine bağlı olarak kış yağışlarında çok ciddi azalmalar (% 34) model sonuçlarında ortaya çıkmıştır. Sonbahar meviminde ise Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesinde yağışlarda % 50’lere varan artışlar görülmüştür. Bu artışların ana nedeni değişen rüzgar akımlarının taşıdığı nem olabilir. Gelecek iklim senaryosunda Fırat ve Dicle su havzalarını kapsayan alandaki kış yağışlarında yaşanan azalmalarla, küresel ısınmaya paralel sıcaklık artışının buharlaşmaya etkisiyle birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, model sonuçlarının hidrolojik analizlerinin önemi daha çok ortaya çıkmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: İklim değişimi, bölgesel iklim modellemesi, ölçek küçültme.The Earth's climate has changed many times and fluctuated between the glacial and the interglacial periods since its formed. These changes related to natural forcings like volcanic eruptions, intense tectonic activity, solar activity and variation of Earth's orbital parameters, were sometimes very dramatic. Today, the global change we face to is different than the natural changes occurred in the past. Human-induced climate change has been taken into consideration extensively within the last decade more than ever. Recent advances in both climate observing systems and methodologies to detect the climate change, as well as broader global coverage of observations help scientists to better understand the climate system. Scientific studies which are led by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) showed that dominance of anthropogenic effect on global warming is indisputable (IPCC, 2007). Regional climate change modeling has been applied to many different areas such as agriculture, seasonal forecasting, hydrology applications, paleoclimate and climate projections. Because of its ability to resolve sharp gradients and contrasts in the surface conditions, the regional climate modeling approach yields more accurate and spatially detailed information. In this study,  the ICTP-Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) has been used to downscale present and future scenario simulations generated by the NASA-Finite Volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) over Turkey and its surroundings. The present-day (1961-1990, RF) and the future climate change simulations (2071-2100, A2) are based on the IPCC Greenhouse Gases emissions, which are CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFC11- CFC12. Emission scenarios for these gases have been implemented into the radiation scheme for the simulations and, relatively high resolution of 30 km is adopted to resolve the complex topography of the domain. The role of the domain characteristics such as complex land-sea distribution determines the sub-regional climatic features and spatial climate variability. This diverse climatic structure of the region brings great challenge for regional climate modeling. Levantine Sea, Aegean Sea and Black Sea are main moisture sources of the Turkey and its surrounding regions. A2 simulation results which correspond future climate indicate that warming over Turkey's climatic zones is in the range of 2-5 °C. Summer temperature changes are more dominant in the A2 scenario. This pattern has also been observed for neighboring countries. Summer heat wave conditions over Aegean region (5 °C increase) are more obvious in the area averages than in the spatial pattern based model results. The difference between the summer and winter change is about 3 °C and it could play an important role in contributing to temporal shifts of the transition seasons. In addition, warming in winter over eastern and southeastern of Turkey which have higher altitudes are nearly 1 °C higher than for Marmara and Aegean regions which have lower altitudes. Autumn temperature changes for all regions are affected by the extension of the summer season extension due to the global warming. Most significant precipitation changes in A2 scenario have been occurred over the Mediterranean region of Turkey in winter and over the Southeastern of Turkey in autumn. Our analyses show a 34% decrease over Mediterranean region and it is related to the change in the atmospheric circulation which in turn causes reduced orographic forcing. The same circulation change also enhanced orographic forcing especially over the east of the Black Sea region and results in significant precipitation increase. Decreases over the Aegean and Southeastern regions are around 20% in winter. Autumn precipitation over Southeastern region increased as high as 48%. Flow pattern changes which also affected Iraq and Syria are consistent with enhanced moisture availability over this region which may account for the major precipitation increase. All precipitation changes in winter and autumn are also statistically significant. The amount of precipitation over Turkey in summer season is very little except eastern Black Sea region. Therefore, percent changes for summer precipitation over all of regions could not be meaningful to discuss. Analyses of A2 simulation show that combined effect of precipitation decrease and evapotranspiration increase related to temperature increase could play major role to reduce water resources over Turkey. Especially, there could be significant problems over Euphrates-Tigris basin because of the decreasing water availability in future scenario. Keywords: Climate change, regional climate modeling, downscaling scenarios

Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments

Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments. © 2020 by the authors

Exposure assessment of climate extremes over the Europe–mediterranean region

The use of a compact set of climate change indexes enhances our understanding of the combined impacts of extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we developed the modified Climate Extremes Index (mCEI) to obtain unified information about different types of extremes. For this purpose, we calculated 10 different climate change indexes considering the temperature extremes, extreme precipitation, and moisture surplus and drought over the Europe–Mediterranean (EURO– MED) region for the 1979–2016 period. As a holistic approach, mCEI provides spatiotemporal information, and the high-resolution grid-based data allow us to accomplish detailed country-based and city-based analyses. The analyses indicate that warm temperature extremes rise significantly over the EURO–MED region at a rate of 1.9% decade−1, whereas the cold temperature extremes decrease. Extreme drought has a significant increasing trend of 3.8% decade−1 . Although there are regional differences, extreme precipitation indexes have a significant increasing tendency. According to the mCEI, the major hotspots for the combined extremes are the Mediterranean coasts, the Balkan countries, Eastern Europe, Iceland, western Russia, western Turkey, and western Iraq. The decadal changes of mCEI for these regions are in the range of 3–5% decade−1 . The city-scale analysis based on urbanized locations reveals that Fes (Morocco), Izmir (Turkey), Marseille and Aix-en-Provence (France), and Tel Aviv (Israel) have the highest increasing trend of mCEI, which is greater than 3.5% decade−1 .ISSN:2073-443

Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas

International audienceThe collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to ­assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and ­activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)

Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Climate Change on Wheat Production in the Mediterranean Region

Global climate change could be harmful to agriculture. In particular, water availability and irrigation development under changed climatic conditions already pose a growing problem for crop production in the Mediterranean region. Wheat is the major significant crop in terms of food security. Therefore, in relation to these issues, this review gives an overview of climate change effects on wheat production in the Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Future climate data generated by a general circulation model (e.g., CGCM2) and regional climate models (e.g., RCM/MRI, CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS) have been used to quantify the wheat growth and the soil-water-balance around the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey. The effects of climate change on the water demand and yield of wheat were predicted using the detailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant). The Soil evaporation was estimated using the E-DiGOR (Evaporation and Drainage investigations at Ground of Ordinary Rainfed-areas) model. This review revealed that the changes in climatic conditions and CO2 concentration have caused parallel changes in the wheat yield. A close correspondence between measured and simulated yield data was obtained. The grain yield increased by about 24.7% (measured) and 21.9% (modelled) under a two-fold CO2 concentration and the current climatic conditions. However, this increase in the yield was counteracted by a temperature rise of 3 °C. Wheat biomass decreases under the future climatic conditions and the enhanced CO2 concentration,regardless of the model used. Without CO2 effects, grain yield also decreases for all the models. By contrast, the combined impact of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on grain yield of wheat was positive, but varied with the climatic models. Among the models, the CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS denote the highest (24.9%) and lowest (6.3%) increases in grain yield respectively. The duration of the regular crop-growing season for wheat was 24, 21, and 27 days shorter as calculated for the future, mainly caused by the projected air temperature rise of 2.2, 2.4, and 3 °C for a growing period by the 2070s for CGCM2, CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS respectively. The experimental results show large increases in the water use efficiency of wheat, due to the increases in CO2 concentration and air temperature. Despite the increased evaporative demand of the atmosphere, the increases in water use efficiency can be attributed to the shorter growing days and a reduction in the transpiration due to stomata closure. Unlike reference evapotranspiration and potential soil evaporation, actual evaporation from bare soils was estimated to reduce by 16.5% in response to a decrease in rainfall and consequently soil wetness in the future, regardless of the increases in the evaporative demand. It can be concluded that to maintain wheat production in the future, the water stress must be managed by proper irrigation management techniques.This research was conducted as part of the ICCAP (Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas) Project, a collaboration between the Research Institute of Humanity and Nature (RIHN) of Japan and the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). The authors would like to extend their thanks to the editors, S. Kapur, T. Watanabe, M. Aydın, E. Akça and R. Kanber