Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election

In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observation for prediction in a multiple regression model under hierarchical priors for the vector parameter. The derived predictive density function is applied for prediction in a multiple regression model given in Fair (2002) to study the effect of fluctuations in economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. presidential election. Numerical illustrations suggest that the predictive performance of Fair’s model is good under hierarchical Bayes setup, except for the 1992 election. Fair’s model under hierarchical Bayes setup indicates that the forthcoming 2008 US presidential election is likely to be a very close election slightly tilted towards Republicans. It is likely that republicans will get 50.90% vote with probability for win 0.550 in the 2008 US Presidential Election.

Sensitivity of Bayes Estimates of Reliability and Reliable Life to a Non Standard Prior

Robustness of Bayes estimate of reliability function and the reliable life by employing Edgeworth-gamma class of priors for the unknown mean and precision of normal population of failure times, have been investigated. The effect of a moderately non-normal prior for Martz and Waller data has been noted to be insignificantly small

Unfolding the 33 years saga of DESIDOC Journal of Libraryand Information Technology

The article gives an historical account of the DESIDOC Journal of Library and Information Technology. It highlightsthat from a humble beginning as a newsletter, it has gone on to become one of India's leading journal in the field of libraryand information science

Waterlogging tolerance in black gram [Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper] is associated with chlorophyll content and membrane integrity

Black gram (Vigna mungo L.) is waterlogging sensitive legume crop. We studied the effect of waterlogging stress on membrane stability index (MSI), lipid peroxidation, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, chlorophyll content and chlorophyll fluorescence in four Vigna genotypes namely (Uttara, T-44, IC530491, IC519330). Stress was imposed for 10 days at vegetative stage (30 days after sowing). Thereafter, excess water was drained to allow recovery in stressed plants. Waterlogging treatment significantly increased lipid peroxidation and SOD activity in all the genotypes, which showed the oxidative injury posed by stress conditions. Chlorophyll content and fluorescence reduced under stress conditions. SOD activity, MSI and chlorophyll content was more in IC530491 and IC519330, T44 as compared to Uttara. Lipid peroxidation was high in Uttara. Though chlorophyll fluorescence reduced in all the genotypes under waterlogging, genotypic differences were non-significant. More efficient antioxidative scavenging to maintain membrane stability and chlorophyll content in black gram was found to be associated with tolerance to waterlogging

Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election

In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observation for prediction in a multiple regression model under hierarchical priors for the vector parameter. The derived predictive density function is applied for prediction in a multiple regression model given in Fair (2002) to study the effect of fluctuations in economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. presidential election. Numerical illustrations suggest that the predictive performance of Fair’s model is good under hierarchical Bayes setup, except for the 1992 election. Fair’s model under hierarchical Bayes setup indicates that the forthcoming 2008 US presidential election is likely to be a very close election slightly tilted towards Republicans. It is likely that republicans will get 50.90% vote with probability for win 0.550 in the 2008 US Presidential Election

Kitozan male molekulske mase kao nosač hidrodinamički uravnoteženog sustava za usporenu isporuku ciprofloksacin hidroklorida

Chitosan has become a focus of major interest in recent years due to its excellent biocompatibility, biodegradability and non-toxicity. Although this material has already been extensively investigated in the design of different types of drug delivery systems, it is still little explored for stomach specific drug delivery systems. The objective of the present investigation was to explore the potential of low molecular mass chitosan (LMCH) as carrier for a hydrodynamically balanced system (HBS) for sustained delivery of water soluble drug ciprofloxacin hydrochloride (CP). Various formulations were prepared by physical blending of drug and polymer(s) in varying ratios followed by encapsulation into hard gelatin capsules. All the formulations remained buoyant in 0.1mol L1 HCl (pH 1.2) throughout the experiment. Effect of addition of xanthan gum (XG) or ethyl cellulose (EC) on drug release was also investigated. Zero order drug release was obtained from the formulations containing LMCH alone or in combination with XG, and in one instance also with EC. Our results suggest that LMCH alone or in combination with XG is an excellent material for stomach specific sustained delivery of CP from hydrodynamically balanced single unit capsules.Zbog svoje biokompatibilnosti, biorazgradljivosti i netoksičnosti kitozan je vrlo interesantan istraživačima u području farmaceutske tehnologije. Najviše se upotrebljavao u dizajniranju različitih sustava za isporuku lijekova ali vrlo malo za sustave za specifičnu isporuku u želucu. Cilj ovog rada bio je ispitati mogućnost upotrebe kitozana male molekulske mase (LMCH) kao nosača u hidrodinamički balansiranom sustavu (HBS) za usporenu isporuku vodotopljivog lijeka ciprofloksacin hidroklorida (CP). Pripravljene su različite formulacije stvaranjem fizičke smjese lijeka i polimera u različitim omjerima, koje su potom kapsulirane u želatinske kapsule. Svi su pripravci za vrijeme cijelog eksperimenta ostali plutati u 0,01mol L1 HCl (pH 1,2). Ispitivan je i učinak ksantan gume (XG) ili etilceluloze (EC) na oslobađanje lijeka. Oslobađanje lijeka nultog reda postignuto je iz formulacija koje sadrže samo LMCH ili LMCH u kombinaciji sa XG i u jednom slučaju s EC. Dobiveni rezultati pokazuju da je LMCH, sam ili u kombinaciji sa XG, izvrstan materijal za sustave za specifičnu isporuku CP iz hidrodinamički balansiranih kapsula

Effect of letrozole 2.5 mg or 5.0 mg for ovulation induction in intrauterine insemination in case of unexplained infertility: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Aim was to compare effects of letrozole 2.5 mg or 5.0 mg for ovulation induction in patients with unexplained Infertility. Methods: A randomized controlled trial. 60 patients attending infertility clinic were randomly allocated into two groups-Group A received letrozole 2.5 mg and Group B received letrozole 5 mg orally for 5 days from 3rd day of cycle. The patients also received inj FSH 75 IU i/m on day 7 and 9 of the cycle and underwent follicular study on day 11, 13, 15. When the dominant follicle size reached 18 mm ovulation triggered with Inj hCG 5000 IU IM and Intrauterine insemination was done 24-36 hours later. Pregnancy rates were calculated. Results were analysed by statistical software. Results: Better ovulation rates were seen in patients receiving 5 mg letrozole. No difference in the pregnancy rates was found between the two groups. No multiple pregnancies and ovarian hyperstimulation seen. Conclusions: It appears that 5 mg daily for 5 days is a preferable letrozole dose for superovulation

Study of Vagendriya with its Related Structures - A Review

According to Ayurveda classic texts Indriyas are the apparatus to attain knowledge for Atma. Acharya Charaka described Indriya as basic instrument in differentiating the living and non-living matters. Whereas in contemporary science Indriyas are dealt only with structure i.e. sense organ where the actual transduction process takes place. Indriyas are composed of five elements still specific Mahabhuta dominates precise Indriya. This is the reason behind reception of specific sensation by its respective Indriya. Many sensory and motor functions are performed by Indriyas. Indriyas of human body plays a very vital role in carrying out day to day activites of human body. Modern science also accepts the same concept in the form of sensation and perception that allows the human to detect and understand the various stimuli and collect information from internal or external environment of an organism and send them to CNS. All Indriyas work will be meaningless if Vayu will not work hand to hand with these Indriyas. Vagendriya a motor organ which act as a passive partner on receiving command from its higher centre located in Shira, which is ultimately a site for location of control center of all motor as well as sense organs and thus it is said to be ‘Uttamaang.’ Ayurvedic approach towards speech production is reflected as Vak Pravrutti. Speech is multiphase unique phenomenon and is believed to be outcome of combined effort of Acoustic signals, Articulatory signals and Muscle coordination along with Nervous assistance viz. Wernicke’s area and Broca’s area

Clinico-morphological patterns of breast cancer including family history in a New Delhi hospital, India-A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the second most common malignancy among women, next to cervix cancer. Understanding its pathogenesis, morphological features and various risk-factors, including family history holds a great promise for the treatment, early detection and prevention of this cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In an attempt to evaluate the clinico-morphological patterns of breast cancer patients, including their family history of breast and/or other cancers, a detailed analysis of 569 breast cancer cases diagnosed during the years 1989–2003 was carried out. Mean and standard deviation and Odds ratios along with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. χ(2)/Fisher's exact test were employed to test for proportions. RESULTS: Mean age of the patient at presentation was 47.8 years, ranging from 13–82 years. Among the various histo-morphological types, Infiltrating duct carcinoma (IDC) was found to be commonest type i.e. in 502 cases (88.2%), followed by infiltrating lobular carcinoma (ILC) in 21 cases (3.7%) and other types forming 9(1%). Out of 369 cases where TNM staging was available, stage IIIB (35.2%) was the commonest. Lymph node positivity was observed in 296 cases (80.2%). Out of 226 cases evaluated for presence of family history, 47 cases (20.7%) revealed positive family history of cancer, among which breast or ovarian cancer were the commonest type (72.0%). Patients below 45 years of age had more frequent occurrence of family history as compared to above 45 years. Amongst familial cases, Infiltrating duct carcinoma was the commonest form accounting for 68.8% cases while ILC was found to be in a higher proportion (12.5%) as compared to non- familial cases (5.4%). CONCLUSION: Among the various determining factors for development of breast cancer and for its early detection, family history of cancer forms one of the major risk factor. It is important to take an appropriate history for eliciting information pertaining to occurrence of cancers amongst the patients' relatives there by identifying the high risk group. Educating the population about the risk factors would be helpful in early detection of breast cancer

Application of Artificial Neural Network for Analysis of Self-Excited Induction Generator

It is observed that conventional techniques to analyse the steady state analysis of Self-Excited Induction Generator (SEIG) involve cumbersome mathematical procedures. In this paper an Artificial Intelligence (AI) technique has been used to analyse the behaviour of Self-Excited Induction Generator, which does not require rigorous modelling as required in conventional techniques. Proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been implemented to predict the effect of speed, capacitance and load on generated voltage and frequency of SEIG. Experimental data is used for the training of ANN. Results obtained from the trained ANN are found to be in close agreement with the experimental results.Facultad de Informátic