Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

The Performance and Calibration of the CRAFT Fly's Eye Fast Radio Burst Survey

Since January 2017, the Commensal Real-time ASKAP Fast Transients survey (CRAFT) has been utilising commissioning antennas of the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) to survey for fast radio bursts (FRBs) in fly's eye mode. This is the first extensive astronomical survey using phased array feeds (PAFs), and a total of 20 FRBs have been reported. Here we present a calculation of the sensitivity and total exposure of this survey, using the pulsars B1641-45 (J1644-4559) and B0833-45 (J0835-4510, i.e.\ Vela) as calibrators. The design of the survey allows us to benchmark effects due to PAF beamshape, antenna-dependent system noise, radio-frequency interference, and fluctuations during commissioning on timescales from one hour to a year. Observation time, solid-angle, and search efficiency are calculated as a function of FRB fluence threshold. Using this metric, effective survey exposures and sensitivities are calculated as a function of the source counts distribution. The implied FRB rate is significantly lower than the $37$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ calculated using nominal exposures and sensitivities for this same sample by \citet{craft_nature}. At the Euclidean power-law index of $-1.5$, the rate is $10.7_{-1.8}^{+2.7}\,{\rm (sys)} \, \pm \, 3\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $57\pm6\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms, while for the best-fit index for this sample of $-2.1$, it is $16.6_{-1.5}^{+1.9} \,{\rm (sys)}\, \pm 4.7\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $41.6\pm1.5\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms. This strongly suggests that these calculations be performed for other FRB-hunting experiments, allowing meaningful comparisons to be made between them.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in PAS

Embedding Four-directional Paths on Convex Point Sets

A directed path whose edges are assigned labels "up", "down", "right", or "left" is called \emph{four-directional}, and \emph{three-directional} if at most three out of the four labels are used. A \emph{direction-consistent embedding} of an \mbox{$n$-vertex} four-directional path $P$ on a set $S$ of $n$ points in the plane is a straight-line drawing of $P$ where each vertex of $P$ is mapped to a distinct point of $S$ and every edge points to the direction specified by its label. We study planar direction-consistent embeddings of three- and four-directional paths and provide a complete picture of the problem for convex point sets.Comment: 11 pages, full conference version including all proof

Single nucleotide polymorphisms reveal a genetic cline across the north-east Atlantic and enable powerful population assignment in the European lobster

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement:: Data for this study are available at the Dryad Digital Repository: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2v1kr38Resolving stock structure is crucial for fisheries conservation to ensure that the spatial implementation of management is commensurate with that of biological population units. To address this in the economically important European lobster (Homarus gammarus), genetic structure was explored across the species' range using a small panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously isolated from restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing; these SNPs were selected to maximize differentiation at a range of both broad and fine scales. After quality control and filtering, 1,278 lobsters from 38 sampling sites were genotyped at 79 SNPs. The results revealed a pronounced phylogeographic break between the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, while structure within the Mediterranean was also apparent, partitioned between lobsters from the central Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. In addition, a genetic cline across the north-east Atlantic was revealed using both putatively neutral and outlier SNPs, but the precise driver(s) of this clinal pattern—isolation by distance, secondary contact, selection across an environmental gradient, or a combination of these factors—remains undetermined. Putatively neutral markers differentiated lobsters from Oosterschelde, an estuary on the Dutch coast, a finding likely explained by past bottlenecks and limited gene flow with adjacent North Sea populations. Building on the findings of our spatial genetic analysis, we were able to test the accuracy of assigning lobsters at various spatial scales, including to basin of origin (Atlantic or Mediterranean), region of origin and sampling location. The predictive model assembled using 79 SNPs correctly assigned 99.7% of lobsters not used to build the model to their basin of origin, but accuracy decreased to region of origin and again to sampling location. These results are of direct relevance to managers of lobster fisheries and hatcheries, and provide the basis for a genetic tool for tracing the origin of European lobsters in the food supply chain.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Natural EnglandUniversity of Exete

High-velocity OH megamasers in IRAS 20100-4156: Evidence for a Supermassive Black Hole

We report the discovery of new, high-velocity narrow-line components of the OH megamaser in IRAS 20100-4156. Results from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP)'s Boolardy Engineering Test Array (BETA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) provide two independent measurements of the OH megamaser spectrum. We found evidence for OH megamaser clumps at $-$409 and $-$562 km/s (blue-shifted) from the systemic velocity of the galaxy, in addition to the lines previously known. The presence of such high velocities in the molecular emission from IRAS 20100$-$4156 could be explained by a ~50 pc molecular ring enclosing an approximately 3.8 billion solar mass black hole. We also discuss two alternatives, i.e. that the narrow-line masers are dynamically coupled to the wind driven by the active galactic nucleus or they are associated with two separate galactic nuclei. The comparison between the BETA and ATCA spectra provides another scientific verification of ASKAP's BETA. Our data, combined with previous measurements of the source enabled us to study the variability of the source over a twenty-six year period. The flux density of the brightest OH maser components has reduced by more than a factor of two between 1988 and 2015, whereas a secondary narrow-line component has more than doubled in the same time. Plans for high-resolution VLBI follow-up of this source are discussed, as are prospects for discovering new OH megamasers during the ASKAP early science program.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. Seven pages, three figure

The early and late-time spectral and temporal evolution of GRB 050716

We report on a comprehensive set of observations of Gamma Ray Burst 050716, detected by the Swift satellite and subsequently followed-up rapidly in X-ray, optical and near infra-red wavebands. The prompt emission is typical of long-duration bursts, with two peaks in a time interval of T90 = 68 seconds (15 - 350 keV). The prompt emission continues at lower flux levels in the X-ray band, where several smaller flares can be seen, on top of a decaying light curve that exhibits an apparent break around 220 seconds post trigger. This temporal break is roughly coincident with a spectral break. The latter can be related to the extrapolated evolution of the break energy in the prompt gamma-ray emission, and is possibly the manifestation of the peak flux break frequency of the internal shock passing through the observing band. A possible 3 sigma change in the X-ray absorption column is also seen during this time. The late-time afterglow behaviour is relatively standard, with an electron distribution power-law index of p = 2 there is no noticable temporal break out to at least 10 days. The broad-band optical/nIR to X-ray spectrum indicates a redshift of z ~> 2 for this burst, with a host-galaxy extinction value of E(B-V) ~ 0.7 that prefers an SMC-like extinction curve.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 8 pages, 5 figure

A Sample of Very Young Field L Dwarfs and Implications for the Brown Dwarf "Lithium Test" at Early Ages

Using a large sample of optical spectra of late-type dwarfs, we identify a subset of late-M through L field dwarfs that, because of the presence of low-gravity features in their spectra, are believed to be unusually young. From a combined sample of 303 field L dwarfs, we find observationally that 7.6+/-1.6% are younger than 100 Myr. This percentage is in agreement with theoretical predictions once observing biases are taken into account. We find that these young L dwarfs tend to fall in the southern hemisphere (Dec < 0 deg) and may be previously unrecognized, low-mass members of nearby, young associations like Tucana-Horologium, TW Hydrae, beta Pictoris, and AB Doradus. We use a homogeneously observed sample of roughly one hundred and fifty 6300-10000 Angstrom spectra of L and T dwarfs taken with the Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer at the W. M. Keck Observatory to examine the strength of the 6708-A Li I line as a function of spectral type and further corroborate the trends noted by Kirkpatrick et al. (2000). We use our low-gravity spectra to investigate the strength of the Li I line as a function of age. The data weakly suggest that for early- to mid-L dwarfs the line strength reaches a maximum for a few 100 Myr, whereas for much older (few Gyr) and much younger (<100 Myr) L dwarfs the line is weaker or undetectable. We show that a weakening of lithium at lower gravities is predicted by model atmosphere calculations, an effect partially corroborated by existing observational data. Larger samples containing L dwarfs of well determined ages are needed to further test this empirically. If verified, this result would reinforce the caveat first cited in Kirkpatrick et al. (2006) that the lithium test should be used with caution when attempting to confirm the substellar nature of the youngest brown dwarfs.Comment: 73 pages with 22 figures; to appear in ApJ (Dec 20, 2008, v689n2 issue

A Dominant, Recombination-Defective Allele of Dmc1 Causing Male-Specific Sterility

DMC1 is a meiosis-specific homolog of bacterial RecA and eukaryotic RAD51 that can catalyze homologous DNA strand invasion and D-loop formation in vitro. DMC1-deficient mice and yeast are sterile due to defective meiotic recombination and chromosome synapsis. The authors identified a male dominant sterile allele of Dmc1, Dmc1(Mei11), encoding a missense mutation in the L2 DNA binding domain that abolishes strand invasion activity. Meiosis in male heterozygotes arrests in pachynema, characterized by incomplete chromosome synapsis and no crossing-over. Young heterozygous females have normal litter sizes despite having a decreased oocyte pool, a high incidence of meiosis I abnormalities, and susceptibility to premature ovarian failure. Dmc1(Mei11) exposes a sex difference in recombination in that a significant portion of female oocytes can compensate for DMC1 deficiency to undergo crossing-over and complete gametogenesis. Importantly, these data demonstrate that dominant alleles of meiosis genes can arise and propagate in populations, causing infertility and other reproductive consequences due to meiotic prophase I defects