Uniform Hazard Response Spectra of Korea Considering Uncertainties in Ground Properties

The seismic site coefficients derived deterministically are often used with ground motion parameters determined by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in construction of the design response spectrum. There is, therefore, an inherent incompatibility between two approaches. New methods have been developed to resolve this incompatibility by developing probabilistic seismic site coefficients. In such approaches, the uncertainties in the properties of the ground were not systematically accounted for due to lack of measurements of the ground. In this study, an integrated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which can quantify the nonlinear seismic site effects and account for the uncertainties in soil properties is developed and used to generate the uniform hazard response spectra in Korea. The procedure used an extensive database of measured shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic curves, which included more than 114 shear wave velocity profiles and more than 15 dynamic curves. The calculated uniform hazard response spectra were compared to the design spectra. Comparisons show significant discrepancy between two spectra, and highlight the need to revise the current design guideline

Influence of the Choice of Lunar Gravity Model on Orbit Determination for Lunar Orbiters

We examine the influence of the lunar gravity model on the orbit determination (OD) of a lunar orbiter operating in a 100 km high, lunar polar orbit. Doppler and sequential range measurements by three Deep Space Network antennas and one Korea Deep Space Antenna were used. For measurement simulation and OD analysis, STK11 and ODTK6 were utilized. GLGM2, LP100K, LP150Q, GRAIL420A, and GRAIL660B were used for investigation of lunar gravity model selection effect. OD results were assessed by position and velocity uncertainties with error covariance and an external orbit comparison using simulated true orbit. The effect of the lunar gravity models on the long-term OD, degree and order level, measurement-acquisition condition, and lunar altitude was investigated. For efficiency verification, computational times for the five lunar gravity models were compared. Results showed that significant improvements to OD accuracy are observed by applying a GRAIL-based model; however, applying a full order and degree gravity modeling is not always the best strategy, owing to the computational burden. Consequently, we consider that OD using GRAIL660B with 70 × 70 degree and order is the most efficient strategy for mission preanalysis. This study provides useful guideline for KPLO OD analysis during nominal mission operation

Evolution of the Selenopotential Model and Its Effects on the Propagation Accuracy of Orbits around the Moon

The current work analyzes the effect of applying different selenopotential models to the propagation of a lunar orbiting spacecraft. A brief evolution history of the selenopotential model is first presented; then, four representative selenopotential models are selected for force modeling. Expected propagation errors are presented with respect to three different circular polar orbits around the Moon. As a result, an expected but rather significant number of orbit propagation errors are discovered. Compared to the solutions obtained using the GRAIL1500E model, the overall 3D propagation errors for a 4-day period could reach up to several tens of kilometers (50 km altitude case with the GLGM2 model) and up to several hundreds of meters (50, 100, and 200 km altitude cases even with the GRAIL660B model). For each different orbiter’s altitude, the appropriate ranges of the degree and order of the gravitational harmonic coefficients are also suggested to yield the best propagation performances with respect to the performance obtained with the full harmonic coefficients using the GRAIL1500E model. The results of the current work are expected to serve as practical guidelines for the field of system budget analysis, mission design, mission operations, and the analysis of scientific results

Two Cases of Acute Leukopenia Induced by Colchicine with Concurrent Immunosuppressants Use in Behçet's Disease

Colchicine-induced leukopenia usually occurrs in intentional or accidental overdoses or inappropriate use in combination with intravenous and oral colchine; however, there have been several reports of hematologic toxicity in short-term and small-dose colchicine medication courses. We present two cases of leukopenia induced by colchicine use concurrent with immunosuppressants in Behçet's disease. We postulate that the mechanism of colchicine-induced leukopenia might be the destruction of circulating leukocytes and an inhibition of leukocyte production by the immediate and direct toxic effect of colchicine on idiosyncrasies unique to each patient. The concurrently administered immunosuppressant might decrease the threshold for hematologic toxicity of colchicine in the leukocytes and their precursor cells

Micafungin prophylaxis for acute leukemia patients undergoing induction chemotherapy

Background Micafungin is a well-tolerated and effective prophylactic antifungal agent used in hematologic diseases. In this prospective trial, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of prophylactic micafungin during first induction chemotherapy in patients with acute leukemia. We also compared outcomes of prophylactic micafungin with those of prophylactic posaconazole in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Methods Medically fit patients with newly diagnosed acute leukemia received 50 mg micafungin intravenously once daily from the initiation of first induction chemotherapy to recovery of neutrophil count, suspected fungal infection, or unacceptable drug-related toxicity (Clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT02440178). The primary end point was incidence of invasive fungal infection, and the secondary end points were adverse events of prophylactic micafungin and mortality during induction therapy. Results The 65 patients (median age = 51 years, male:female = 34:31) enrolled in this study had diagnoses of AML (33, 50.8%), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (31, 47.7%), and acute biphenotypic leukemia (1, 1.5%). Median duration of micafungin treatment was 24 days (range 1–68), with proven invasive fungal disease in one patient (1.5%) and possible fungal infection in two patients (3.1%). Three of the patients (4.6%) experienced the following adverse events, but all events were tolerable: liver function abnormality (Grade 2, n = 1; Grade 3, n = 1) and allergic reaction (Grade 2, n = 1). Three patients died during induction therapy, and invasive aspergillosis pneumonia was the cause of death for one of those patients. Overall, 19 patients (29.2%) discontinued prophylactic micafungin, and 18 (27.7%) patients switched to another antifungal agent. We observed no fungal infections caused by amphotericin B-resistant organisms. In AML patients, outcomes of prophylactic micafungin during induction chemotherapy did not differ significantly with those of prophylactic posaconazole with regard to incidence of fungal infections, rate of discontinuation, or safety. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that prophylactic micafungin is safe and effective in patients with acute leukemia undergoing induction chemotherapy. Outcomes in patients with AML were similar to those of prophylactic posaconazole, indicating the usefulness of micafungin as a prophylactic antifungal agent during induction chemotherapy for AML. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02440178, registered May 12th 2015.This study was funded by Astellas Pharma Korea, Inc. Funding source had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis or data interpretation

A test of the submentalizing hypothesis : apes' performance in a false belief task inanimate control

Financial support came from Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (K-CONNEX to FK), Japan Society for Promotion of Science (KAKENHI 26885040, 16K21108 to FK), JSPS (KAKENHI 26245069, 24000001 to SH), and European Research Council (Synergy grant 609819 SOMICS to JC).Much debate concerns whether any nonhuman animals share with humans the ability to infer others' mental states, such as desires and beliefs. In a recent eye-tracking false-belief task, we showed that great apes correctly anticipated that a human actor would search for a goal object where he had last seen it, even though the apes themselves knew that it was no longer there. In response, Heyes proposed that apes' looking behavior was guided not by social cognitive mechanisms but rather domain-general cueing effects, and suggested the use of inanimate controls to test this alternative submentalizing hypothesis. In the present study, we implemented the suggested inanimate control of our previous false-belief task. Apes attended well to key events but showed markedly fewer anticipatory looks and no significant tendency to look to the correct location. We thus found no evidence that submentalizing was responsible for apes' anticipatory looks in our false-belief task.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Development of Simulation Tool for Orbital Motion of Meteoroid Stream Particles

This paper presents the preliminary survey and simulation results of the prediction of Leonid stream's orbital motion. Based on the model survey on eject velocity and perturbation of meteoroid particles, a simulation program was developed and applied to orbital motion of Leonid stream. The Jones ejection distribution model was used to describe the particle's eject velocity and the orbital dynamics model includes perturbations of major planet's gravity. DE405 ephemeris file generated by Solar System Dynamics Group at Jet Propulsion Laboratory in NASA was used for the planet's ephemeris calculations. Solar radiation pressure were also considered in the simulation and 8th order Runge-Kutta algorithm was used as a numerical integration method

Evaluating High-Degree-and-Order Gravitational Harmonics and its Application to the State Predictions of a Lunar Orbiting Satellite

In this work, an efficient method with which to evaluate the high-degree-and-order gravitational harmonics of the nonsphericity of a central body is described and applied to state predictions of a lunar orbiter. Unlike the work of Song et al. (2010), which used a conventional computation method to process gravitational harmonic coefficients, the current work adapted a well-known recursion formula that directly uses fully normalized associated Legendre functions to compute the acceleration due to the non-sphericity of the moon. With the formulated algorithms, the states of a lunar orbiting satellite are predicted and its performance is validated in comparisons with solutions obtained from STK/Astrogator. The predicted differences in the orbital states between STK/Astrogator and the current work all remain at a position of less than 1 m with velocity accuracy levels of less than 1 mm/s, even with different orbital inclinations. The effectiveness of the current algorithm, in terms of both the computation time and the degree of accuracy degradation, is also shown in comparisons with results obtained from earlier work. It is expected that the proposed algorithm can be used as a foundation for the development of an operational flight dynamics subsystem for future lunar exploration missions by Korea. It can also be used to analyze missions which require very close operations to the moon

Evaluating High-Degree-and-Order Gravitational Harmonics and its Application to the State Predictions of a Lunar Orbiting Satellite

In this work, an efficient method with which to evaluate the high-degree-and-order gravitational harmonics of the nonsphericity of a central body is described and applied to state predictions of a lunar orbiter. Unlike the work of Song et al. (2010), which used a conventional computation method to process gravitational harmonic coefficients, the current work adapted a well-known recursion formula that directly uses fully normalized associated Legendre functions to compute the acceleration due to the non-sphericity of the moon. With the formulated algorithms, the states of a lunar orbiting satellite are predicted and its performance is validated in comparisons with solutions obtained from STK/Astrogator. The predicted differences in the orbital states between STK/Astrogator and the current work all remain at a position of less than 1 m with velocity accuracy levels of less than 1 mm/s, even with different orbital inclinations. The effectiveness of the current algorithm, in terms of both the computation time and the degree of accuracy degradation, is also shown in comparisons with results obtained from earlier work. It is expected that the proposed algorithm can be used as a foundation for the development of an operational flight dynamics subsystem for future lunar exploration missions by Korea. It can also be used to analyze missions which require very close operations to the moon

Alternating Sunspot Area and Hilbert Transform Analysis

We investigate the sunspot area data spanning from solar cycles 1 (March 1755) to 23 (December 2010) in time domain. For this purpose, we employ the Hilbert transform analysis method, which is used in the field of information theory. One of the most important advantages of this method is that it enables the simultaneous study of associations between the amplitude and the phase in various timescales. In this pilot study, we adopt the alternating sunspot area as a function of time, known as Bracewell transformation. We first calculate the instantaneous amplitude and the instantaneous phase. As a result, we confirm a ~22-year periodic behavior in the instantaneous amplitude. We also find that a behavior of the instantaneous amplitude with longer periodicities than the ~22-year periodicity can also be seen, though it is not as straightforward as the obvious ~22-year periodic behavior revealed by the method currently proposed. In addition to these, we note that the phase difference apparently correlates with the instantaneous amplitude. On the other hand, however, we cannot see any obvious association of the instantaneous frequency and the instantaneous amplitude. We conclude by briefly discussing the current status of development of an algorithm for the solar activity forecast based on the method presented, as this work is a part of that larger project