Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations

Commercial Incentives in Academia

This paper investigates the effects of monetary rewards from commercialisation on the pattern of research. We build a simple repeated model of a researcher capable to obtain innovative ideas. We analyse how academic and market incentives affect the allocation of the researcher’s time between research and development. We argue, however, that technology transfer objectives also affect the choice of research projects. Although commercialisation incentives reduce the time spent in research, they might also induce researchers to conduct research that is more basic in nature, contrary to what the “skewing problem” would presage. Monetary rewards induce a more intensive search for (ex-post) path-breaking innovations, which are more likely to be generated through (ex-ante) basic research programs. These results are shown to hold even if development delays publication

Merger failures

This paper proposes an explanation as to why some mergers fail, based on the interaction between the pre- and post-merger processes. We argue that failure may stem from informational asymmetries arising from the pre-merger period, and problems of cooperation and coordination within recently merged firms. We show that a partner may optimally agree to merge and abstain from putting forth any post-merger effort, counting on the other partner to make the necessary efforts. If both follow the same course of action, the merger goes ahead but fails. Our unique equilibrium allows us to make predictions on which mergers are more likely to fail.Mergers, Synergies, Asymmetric Information, Complementarities

Conglomeration with bankruptcy costs: Separate or joint financing?

The paper analyzes the determinants of the optimal scope of incorporation in the presence of bankruptcy costs. Bankruptcy costs alone generate a non-trivial tradeoff between the benefit of coinsurance and the cost of risk contamination associated to joint financing corporate projects through debt. This tradeoff is characterized for projects with binary returns, depending on the distributional characteristics of returns (mean, variability, skewness, heterogeneity, correlation, and number of projects), the bankruptcy recovery rate, and the tax rate advantage of debt relative to equity. Our testable predictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence on conglomerate mergers, spin-offs, project finance, and securitization.Bankruptcy, conglomeration, mergers, spin-offs, project finance

The Double-Edged Sword of Industry Collaboration: Evidence from Engineering Academics in the UK

This paper studies the impact of university-industry collaboration on academic research output. We report findings from a unique longitudinal dataset on all the researchers in all the engineering departments of 40 major universities in the UK for the last 20 years. We introduce a new measure of industry collaboration based on the fraction of research grants that include industry partners. Our results show that productivity increases with the intensity of industry collaboration, but only up to a certain point. Above a certain threshold, research productivity declines. Our results are robust to several econometric estimation methods, measures of research output, and for various subsamples of academics

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfolios influences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.Electricity, market power, simulations, technology diversification

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paper explores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailing wholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include several behavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theory predictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not under fictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.Agent-based computational economics, electricity, market design, experience-weighted attraction (EWA), learning, supply functions, demand aggregation, initial beliefs.

Capturing industrial CO2 emissions in Spain: Infrastructures, costs and break-even prices

This paper examines the conditions for the deployment of large-scale pipeline and storage infrastructure needed for the capture of CO2 in Spain by 2040. It details a modeling framework that allows us to determine the optimal infrastructure needed to connect a geographically disaggregated set of emitting and storage clusters, along with the threshold CO2 values necessary to ensure that the considered emitters will make the necessary investment decisions. This framework is used to assess the relevance of various policy scenarios, including (i) the perimeter of the targeted emitters for a CCS uptake, and (ii) the relevance of constructing several regional networks instead of a single grid to account for the spatial characteristics of the Spanish peninsula. We find that three networks naturally emerge in the north, center and south of Spain. Moreover, the necessary CO2 break-even price critically depends on the presence of power stations in the capture perimeter. Policy implications of these findings concern the elaboration of relevant, pragmatic recommendations to envisage CCS deployment locally, focusing on emitters with lower substitution options toward low-carbon alternatives

Blanc sota negre. Treballs des de l'imperceptible /5. Isabel Banal: Via Lactea

Podeu consultar la versió en castellà a: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/59785 i en anglès a: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/59784En aquesta exposició, mostra projectes oberts i de llarg recorregut disposats sobre cinc taules. La taula ha estat un dels elements centrals des dels inicis de la seva trajectòria escultòrica, un referent a l’espai de treball creatiu i domèstic i una metàfora de la terra –en la seva doble accepció semàntica de sòl i terra. En l’esperit dels calendaris, les obres registren el dia a dia a través de gestos comuns com: recollir, mirar al terra, caminar, apilonar, dibuixar, esborrar... Imatges que sumades fan una crònica dels nostres dies i enteses com a conjunt formen un univers amb múltiples capes de lectura

The Impact of Industry Collaboration on Academic Research Output: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of university knowledge and technology transfer activities on academic research output. Specifically, we study whether researchers with collaborative links with the private sector publish less than their peers without such links, once controlling for other sources of heterogeneity. We report findings from a longitudinal dataset on researchers from two engineering departments in the UK between 1985 until 2006. Our results indicate that researchers with industrial links publish significantly more than their peers. Academic productivity, though, is higher for low levels of industry involvement as compared to high levels