Living Law, Legal Pluralism, and Corruption in Post-Soviet Uzbekistan

This paper aims to explore the multifaceted meaning, logic, and morality of informal transactions in order to better understand the social context that informs the meaning of corruption and bribery in post-Soviet Uzbekistan. It will be argued that the informal transactions in Uzbek society reflect different cultural and functional meanings from those in most of the Western world, and hence transactions that from a Western-centric perspective would be labelled as bribes can be morally accepted transactions in the Uzbek cultural context. If this is true, there may be reasons to re-evaluate the relevance of the Western-centric interpretations of corruption in the context of Uzbekistan, and possibly other Central Asian countries. These issues will be investigated with reference to observations and informal interviews from post-Soviet Uzbekistan. This study is based on three periods of ethnographic field research between 2009 and 2012 in the Ferghana Province of Uzbekistan. It draws on concepts of ‘living law’ and legal pluralism to provide a theoretical framework

Long term records of erosional change from marine ferromanganese crusts

Ferromanganese crusts from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans record the Nd and Pb isotope compositions of the water masses from which they form as hydrogenous precipitates. The10Be/9Be-calibrated time series for crusts are compared to estimates based on Co-contents, from which the equatorial Pacific crusts studied are inferred to have recorded ca. 60 Ma of Pacific deep water history. Time series of ɛNd show that the oceans have maintained a strong provinciality in Nd isotopic composition, determined by terrigenous inputs, over periods of up to 60 Ma. Superimposed on the distinct basin-specific signatures are variations in Nd and Pb isotope time series which have been particularly marked over the last 5 Ma. It is shown that changes in erosional inputs, particularly associated with Himalayan uplift and the northern hemisphere glaciation have influenced Indian and Atlantic Ocean deep water isotopic compositions respectively. There is no evidence so far for an imprint of the final closure of the Panama Isthmus on the Pb and Nd isotopic composition in either Atlantic or Pacific deep water masses

Using combined diagnostic test results to hindcast trends of infection from cross-sectional data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Interhemispheric controls on deep ocean circulation and carbon chemistry during the last two glacial cycles

Changes in ocean circulation structure, together with biological cycling, have been proposed for trapping carbon in the deep ocean during glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, but uncertainty remains in the nature and timing of deep ocean circulation changes through glacial cycles. In this study, we use neodymium (Nd) and carbon isotopes from a deep Indian Ocean sediment core to reconstruct water mass mixing and carbon cycling in Circumpolar Deep Water over the past 250 thousand years, a period encompassing two full glacial cycles and including a range of orbital forcing. Building on recent studies, we use reductive sediment leaching supported by measurements on isolated phases (foraminifera and fish teeth) in order to obtain a robust seawater Nd isotope reconstruction. Neodymium isotopes record a changing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) component in the deep Indian Ocean that bears a striking resemblance to Northern Hemisphere climate records. In particular, we identify both an approximately in-phase link to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation in the precession band and a longer term reduction of NADW contributions over the course of glacial cycles. The orbital timescale changes may record the influence of insolation forcing, via NADW temperature, on deep stratification and mixing in the Southern Ocean, leading to isolation of the global deep oceans from an NADW source during times of low Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. That evidence could support an active role for changing deep ocean circulation in carbon storage during glacial inceptions. However, mid-depth water mass mixing and deep ocean carbon storage were largely decoupled within glacial periods, and a return to an interglacial-like circulation state during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6.5 was accompanied by only minor changes in atmospheric CO2. Although a gradual reduction of NADW export through glacial periods may have produced slow climate feedbacks linked to the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, carbon cycling in the glacial ocean was more strongly linked to Southern Ocean processes