The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study

Sea level budgets should account for ocean bottom deformation

The conventional sea level budget (SLB) equates changes in sea surface height with the sum of ocean mass and steric change, where solid-Earth movements are included as corrections but limited to the impact of glacial isostatic adjustment. However, changes in ocean mass load also deform the ocean bottom elastically. Until the early 2000s, ocean mass change was relatively small, translating into negligible elastic ocean bottom deformation (OBD), hence neglected in the SLB equation. However, recently ocean mass has increased rapidly; hence, OBD is no longer negligible and likely of similar magnitude to the deep steric sea level contribution. Here, we use a mass-volume framework, which allows the ocean bottom to respond to mass load, to derive a SLB equation that includes OBD. We discuss the theoretical appearance of OBD in the SLB equation and its implications for the global SLB.Physical and Space Geodes

Short-term impacts of enhanced Greenland freshwater fluxes in an eddy-permitting ocean model

In a sensitivity experiment, an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model is forced with realistic freshwater fluxes from the Greenland Ice Sheet, averaged for the period 1991–2000. The fluxes are obtained with a mass balance model for the ice sheet, forced with the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. The freshwater flux is distributed around Greenland as an additional term in prescribed runoff, representing seasonal melting of the ice sheet and a fixed year-round iceberg calving flux, for 8.5 model years. By adding Greenland freshwater fluxes with realistic geographical distribution and seasonality, the experiment is designed to investigate the oceanic response to a sudden and spatially/temporally uniform amplification of ice sheet melting and discharge, rather than localized or gradual changes in freshwater flux. The impacts on regional hydrography and circulation are investigated by comparing the sensitivity experiment to a control experiment, without additional fluxes. By the end of the sensitivity experiment, the majority of additional fresh water has accumulated in Baffin Bay, and only a small fraction has reached the interior of the Labrador Sea, where winter mixed layer depth is sensitive to small changes in salinity. As a consequence, the impact on large-scale circulation is very slight. An indirect impact of strong freshening off the west coast of Greenland is a small anti-cyclonic component to the circulation around Greenland, which opposes the wind-driven cyclonic circulation and reduces net southward flow through the Canadian Archipelago by ~10%. Implications for the post-2000 acceleration of Greenland mass loss are discussed

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Elevation Changes Derived from Satellite Altimetry for Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland

Estimation of ice sheet mass balance from satellite altimetry requires interpolation of point-scale elevation change (dHdt) data over the area of interest. The largest dHdt values occur over narrow, fast-flowing outlet glaciers, where data coverage of current satellite altimetry is poorest. In those areas, straightforward interpolation of data is unlikely to reflect the true patterns of dHdt. Here, four interpolation methods are compared and evaluated over Jakobshavn Isbr, an outlet glacier for which widespread airborne validation data are available from NASAs Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM). The four methods are ordinary kriging (OK), kriging with external drift (KED), where the spatial pattern of surface velocity is used as a proxy for that of dHdt, and their spatiotemporal equivalents (ST-OK and ST-KED)

Land Ice Freshwater Budget of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. Part I: Data, Methods and Results

peer reviewedThe freshwater budget of the Arctic and sub-polar North Atlantic Oceans has been changing due, primarily, to increased river runoff, declining sea ice and enhanced melting of Arctic land ice. Since the mid-1990s this latter component has experienced a pronounced increase. We use a combination of satellite observations of glacier flow speed and regional climate modeling to reconstruct the land ice freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic glaciers and ice caps for the period 1958-2016. The cumulative freshwater flux anomaly exceeded 6,300 ± 316 km3 by 2016. This is roughly twice the estimate of a previous analysis that did not include glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and which extended only to 2010. From 2010 onward, the total freshwater flux is about 1,300 km3/yr, equivalent to 0.04 Sv, which is roughly 40% of the estimated total runoff to the Arctic for the same time period. Not all of this flux will reach areas of deep convection or Arctic and Sub-Arctic seas. We note, however, that the largest freshwater flux anomalies, grouped by ocean basin, are located in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. The land ice freshwater flux displays a strong seasonal cycle with summer time values typically around five times larger than the annual mean. This will be important for understanding the impact of these fluxes on fjord circulation, stratification, and the biogeochemistry of, and nutrient delivery to, coastal waters

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets