Open macroeconomics in an open economy

There are three pillars of the new Labour Government''s approach to economic policy: delivering macroeconomic stability, tackling the supply-side barriers to growth and delivering employment and economic opportunities to all. This lecture focuses on the reforms the new government has introduced in order to deliver macroeconomic stability and why open and transparent institutions and procedures are central to those reforms. The lecture sets out four principles for macroeconomic policymaking which flow from changes in the world economy and the world of economic ideas over the past twenty or thirty years. These are:-- the principle of stability through constrained discretion -- the principle of credibility through sound, long-term policies -- the principle of credibility through maximum transparency -- the principle of credibility through pre-commitment. The lecture explains each principle in turn and shows how they are being translated into practice in the macroeconomic policy reforms that the new government is introducing at the Treasury and the Bank of reforms which add up to what is now probably one of the most open and accountable system of economic policymaking in the world

Mechanistic approaches and the development of alternative toxicity test methods.

A mechanism can be defined as an explanation of an observed phenomenon that explains the processes underlying the phenomenon in terms of events at lower levels of organization. A prerequisite for new, more mechanistic, approaches, which would use in vitro systems rather than conventional animal analogy models, is a strengthening of the underlying scientific basis of toxicity testing. This will require greater recognition of the differences between fidelity and discrimination models and between analogy and correlation models. The development of high-fidelity, high-discrimination tests with a sound mechanistic basis will also require greater appreciation of the interdependence of all the components of test systems and the development of new alternative (i.e., nonanimal) testing strategies that can provide the specific knowledge needed for making relevant and reliable predictions about the potential effects of chemicals and products in human beings. The optimal use of this new knowledge will require fundamental changes to current practices in risk assessment

Computer Simulation and Homogenization in Heating Design Optimization

The ability to ensure uniformity of temperature within a given finite physical region is an essential element in the success of many scientific processes, especially those that involve extreme fluctuation in temperature. Such a process is performed in an instrument called the LightTyper developed by Idaho Technology, Inc. of Salt Lake City Utah. This paper details the development and results of a scheme intended to obtain a heating design that ensures a high degree of temperature uniformity within the Idaho Technology instrument. Due to the experiments performed during this project, we were able to answer many questions that concerned finding an optimal design for a two-dimensional cross-section of the LightTyper

The Mechanism of Nuclear Division

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Nodal area evolution in the fur trade : 1768-1821

The fur trade has a long and complex history in which several different fur trade companies have participated. Initially, concentrations of fur trade posts developed in certain areas throughout western Canada. Subsequently the locations of these posts were shifted around within these areas. The formation of these fur trade post concentrations and the later movement of posts is examined in four specific areas in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A comparative analysis using geographical, historical and archaeological data is employed to determine why concentrations of posts developed where they did. Factors that contributed to the movement of posts within these areas are discussed. Competition was the main influencing factor in the formation of areas where concentrations of fur trade posts developed. Subsequently posts were moved within these areas due to competition and other factors that contributed to competition. These factors are discussed in relation to their relevance for future historical and archaeological investigations

Effect of topography on the risk of malaria in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

There has been a progressive rise in malaria in parts of the African highlands over the last 50 years. In this area of unstable malaria, devastating epidemics are experienced at irregular intervals. Altitude plays a very important role in determining malaria transmission and infection. However, other landscape features may also influence this relationship. This research investigates whether the risk of malaria is related to the shape of the surrounding land, at various altitudes. We hypothesized that households situated close to flat areas where water is expected to accumulate, and are thus potential mosquitoes breeding sites, are at greater risk from malaria than those further away. Cross-sectional clinical surveys were carried out in seven villages along an altitudinal transect rising from 300 m to 1650 m in the western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. Each village was mapped and incorporated within a geographical information system (GIS). Univariate analysis showed that the risk of an enlarged spleen was positively correlated with decreasing altitude. Other influential topographic variables identified were: water accumulation, flatness and swampiness. Logistic regression analysis produced two models and their equations were used in the GIS to map the risk of malaria infection within each village area. Model 1 included only altitude and correctly predicted the malaria status of 73% of households, whereas Model 2 incorporated altitude and the amount of swampiness within 400 m radius of each household to predict with 76% accuracy whether households were positive or not. We have identified that between 750 m and 1200 m, characteristics of the landscape play an important role in governing malaria risk. At these elevations malaria is highly unstable, and favourable meteorological conditions can cause malaria epidemics. This novel approach of exploring how topography affects the risk of malaria could be used to identify epidemic-prone areas m other African highland regions and help to improve the targeting of control activities in high-risk areas