Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity

Interest rates

Low frequency movements in stock prices: a state space decomposition

Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log price-dividend ratio along with long-term and short term interest rates, real dividend growth, and inflation. The advantage of the state space approach is that we can parsimoniously model the low frequency movements present in the data. We find that if one allows permanent changes, even though very small, in real dividend growth, real interest rates, inflation but not excess stock returns then expectations of real dividend growth and real interest rates become significant contributors to fluctuations in stock prices. However, we also show that stock price decompositions are very sensitive to assumptions about which unobserved market fundamentals have a permanent component. When we allow excess stock returns to have a permanent component but not real dividend growth, then excess stock returns becomes an important contributor to stock price movements while real dividend growth is not. Unfortunately, the data is not particularly informative about which of these alternative models is more likely.Dividends ; Stock market ; Stocks ; Inflation (Finance)

Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?

Some observers have argued that the run-up in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock price index during the 1990s was due to irrational exuberance rather than market fundamentals. This article presents evidence that the case for market fundamentals is stronger than it appears on the surface. Nathan Balke and Mark Wohar show that movements in the price-dividend and price-earnings rations have exhibited substantial persistence, particularly since World War II. Hence, using the long-run historical average value of the price/earnings or price/dividend ratio as the "normal" valuation ratio is misleading. The authors also show that plausible combinations of lower expected future real discount rates and higher expected real dividend (earnings) growth could rationalize current broad market stock values, raising the possibility that changes in market fundamentals have made a major contribution to the run-up in stock prices. Even if market fundamentals were responsible for the increase in stock prices during the 1990s, we should not necessarily expect future stock returns to be as high as the returns seen in the latter half of the 1990s.Stock - Prices ; Stock market

Materiality of Writing in Early Mesopotamia

This volume presents recent research on the relationship between the material format of text-bearing artefacts, the texts they carry, and their genre. The essays cover a vast period, from the counting stones of the late 4th millennium BCE to the time of the Great Hittite Kingdom in the 2nd millennium BCE. The breadth of substantive focus allows new insights of relevance to scholars in both Ancient Middle Eastern studies and the humanities

Properties of the quaternary half-metal-type Heusler alloy Co2_2Mn1−x_{1-x}Fex_xSi

This work reports on the bulk properties of the quaternary Heusler alloy Co$_2$Mn$_{1-x}$Fe$_x$Si with the Fe concentration $x=$. All samples, which were prepared by arc melting, exhibit $L2_1$ long range order over the complete range of Fe concentration. Structural and magnetic properties of Co$_2$Mn$_{1-x}$Fe$_x$Si Heusler alloys were investigated by means of X-ray diffraction, high and low temperature magnetometry, M{\"o\ss}bauer spectroscopy, and differential scanning calorimetry. The electronic structure was explored by means of high energy photo emission spectroscopy at about 8 keV photon energy. This ensures true bulk sensitivity of the measurements. The magnetization of the Fe doped Heusler alloys is in agreement with the values of the magnetic moments expected for a Slater-Pauling like behavior of half-metallic ferromagnets. The experimental findings are discussed on the hand of self-consistent calculations of the electronic and magnetic structure. To achieve good agreement with experiment, the calculations indicate that on-site electron-electron correlation must be taken into account, even at low Fe concentration. The present investigation focuses on searching for the quaternary compound where the half-metallic behavior is stable against outside influences. Overall, the results suggest that the best candidate may be found at an iron concentration of about 50%.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures Phys. Rev. B accepte

Hall effect in laser ablated Co_2(Mn,Fe)Si thin films

Pulsed laser deposition was employed to grow thin films of the Heusler compounds Co_2MnSi and Co_2FeSi. Epitaxial growth was realized both directly on MgO (100) and on a Cr or Fe buffer layer. Structural analysis by x-ray and electron diffraction shows for both materials the ordered L2_1 structure. Bulk magnetization was determined with a SQUID magnetometer. The values agree with the Slater-Pauling rule for half-metallic Heusler compounds. On the films grown directly on the substrate measurements of the Hall effect have been performed. The normal Hall effect is nearly temperature independent and points towards a compensated Fermi surface. The anomalous contribution is found to be dominated by skew scattering. A remarkable sign change of both normal and anomalous Hall coefficients is observed on changing the valence electron count from 29 (Mn) to 30 (Fe).Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures submitted to J Phys

Eine Fāra-zeitliche Urkunde aus dem Völkerkundemuseum in Werl

The article presents a hitherto unpublished ED IIIa tablet with a two-column inscription on its obverse housed in the Ethnological Museum in Werl, Germany. Based on its physical features, contextual structure and prosopography it is in all likelihood datable to the Fāra-period and probably comes from the site of Fāra itself, ancient Šuruppak. In spite of its obvious brevity, the content proves to be quite intricate. It seems rather probable that the text should be considered as a kind of draft for a legal record possibly dealing with a matter of inheritance

Nitric oxide regulates skeletal muscle fatigue, fiber type, microtubule organization, and mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency through cGMP-dependent mechanisms

Aim: Skeletal muscle nitric oxide–cyclic guanosine monophosphate (NO-cGMP) pathways are impaired in Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy partly because of reduced nNOSμ and soluble guanylate cyclase (GC) activity. However, GC function and the consequences of reduced GC activity in skeletal muscle are unknown. In this study, we explore the functions of GC and NO-cGMP signaling in skeletal muscle. Results: GC1, but not GC2, expression was higher in oxidative than glycolytic muscles. GC1 was found in a complex with nNOSμ and targeted to nNOS compartments at the Golgi complex and neuromuscular junction. Baseline GC activity and GC agonist responsiveness was reduced in the absence of nNOS. Structural analyses revealed aberrant microtubule directionality in GC1−/− muscle. Functional analyses of GC1−/− muscles revealed reduced fatigue resistance and postexercise force recovery that were not due to shifts in type IIA–IIX fiber balance. Force deficits in GC1−/− muscles were also not driven by defects in resting mitochondrial adenosine triphosphate (ATP) synthesis. However, increasing muscle cGMP with sildenafil decreased ATP synthesis efficiency and capacity, without impacting mitochondrial content or ultrastructure. Innovation: GC may represent a new target for alleviating muscle fatigue and that NO-cGMP signaling may play important roles in muscle structure, contractility, and bioenergetics. Conclusions: These findings suggest that GC activity is nNOS dependent and that muscle-specific control of GC expression and differential GC targeting may facilitate NO-cGMP signaling diversity. They suggest that nNOS regulates muscle fiber type, microtubule organization, fatigability, and postexercise force recovery partly through GC1 and suggest that NO-cGMP pathways may modulate mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency