Integrating Decision Heuristics And Behavioural Refinements Into Travel Choice Models

Discrete choice modelling has become the preferred empirical context to study individuals’ preferences and willingness to pay. Although the outcome is important in decision making, so is the process that individuals adopt to assist them in reaching a decision. Both should be considered when analysing individual behaviour as they represent jointly the endogeneity of choice. Traditional choice studies assume, in the main, a linear in the parameters additive in the attributes (LPAA) approach, where individuals are rational, take into account all the attributes and alternatives presented to them when reaching a decision, and value the attribute levels exactly as were presented in the popular choice experiment paradigm. This has not always been shown to be a behaviourally valid representation of choice response, and there is a growing literature on the role of a number of alternative decision process strategies that individuals use when facing a decision, which are often referred to as heuristics, or simply as process rules. The majority of choice studies also assume that respondents have a risk attitude that is risk neutral (i.e., a risky alternative is indifferent to a sure alternative of equal expected value) and that they perceive the levels of attributes in choice experiments in a way that suggests the absence of perceptual conditioning. Considering each in turn, there are people who are risk adverse, risk taking or risk neutral, and this heterogeneity in risk attitude does influence individuals’ decisions when faced with different choice scenarios. Heterogeneity is also present for perceptual conditioning in cases where there is variability in the outcomes of an attribute(s), which allows for differences between the stated probability of occurrence (in a choice experiment) and the perceived probability used when evaluating the prospect. Finally, the (accumulated) experience that individuals’ have with each alternative might also influence their decisions. The objective of this research is to integrate multiple decision process strategies, Value Learning (VL) and Relative Advantage Maximisation (RAM) in particular, alongside the traditional LPAA ‘process rule’ with behavioural refinements (i.e., risk attitudes, perceptual conditioning and overt experience), to take into account process endogeneity in choice responses. A novel approach is used to include process heterogeneity, referred to as conditioning of random process heterogeneity, where the mean and standard deviation of the parameters normally defined under an LPAA heuristic are conditioned by process strategies. This approach takes into account the relationship between process heterogeneity and preference heterogeneity, of particular interest in studies that integrate random parameters and process strategies. The model performance results and willingness to pay estimates are compared to those obtained when using a probabilistic decision process method, increasingly used in the choice literature to accommodate process heterogeneity

Essor et restructuration du vignoble chilien : l'exemple du Maule (VIIè région) : 1995-2005

National audienceDepuis le milieu des années 1990 la mondialisation du secteur viticole est une réalité avec l'apparition de pays dits de " nouveaux producteurs ", tels que les USA, Le Chili... Selon l'OIV, les 3 plus grands producteurs européens (France, Italie, Espagne) produisent chacun 2 fois plus que les USA (1er nouveau producteur). Le Chili qui ne pèse que pour 2,4% dans la surface mondiale des vignes à vin, est devenu le 5ème exportateur mondial de vin. Le Chili est l'exemple même d'une viticulture restructurée en tant que culture agricole capitaliste et exportatrice produisant des vins de marque et répondant à une demande croissante de consommateurs venant des pays anglo-saxons ou de l'Asie. La mise en place du programme territorial intégré de l'industrie vitivinicole du Maule " vinos de Chile 2010 " souligne l'émergence d'une véritable politique vitivinicole régionale. Il s'agit d'un plan associant les principaux acteurs régionaux de la filière : industries, organismes publics et universités. L'objectif est d'améliorer la compétitivité de l'industrie vitivinicole et positionner la région comme producteur de vins de qualité. Pour cela, le programme prévoit des fonds pour promouvoir les innovations technologiques dans l'industrie, des moyens marketing et favoriser le tourisme

Firm-specific and location-specific drivers of business location and relocation decisions

Decisions made by businesses on where to locate or relocate are typically given less consideration than residential location in integrated transport and land use modelling systems. This is surprising given the important role that businesses play in defining employment opportunities, and hence the travel patterns of workers and any travel associated with accessing firms. As part of a larger study on giving firm location choices an endogenous representation in an integrated model system, this paper reviews the existing literature on the drivers of location and relocation decisions in various geographical jurisdictions. The findings provide a starting position in the design of future firm-specific surveys and especially the attributes that are candidates for stated choice experiments and for inclusion in firm location utility equations embedded in integrated strategic model systems

¿Qué es la identidad indígena? La importancia simbólica del territorio natural en la lucha mapuche

This essay has as context the violent aggravation of the current conflict between Mapuche communities and the State, in the regions of Araucanía and Los Ríos, with regard to the exploitation of natural resources such as forests, water and coasts. This accounts for a lack of a theoretical framework for an adequate reading of this conflict which allows the State to elaborate adequate public policies that allow finding a peaceful and legitimate solution to the conflict. From the above, this essay attempts a dialogue between philosophy and anthropology in order to determine how the constitution of indigenous identity is structured, and how, this identity is organized from a relationship with the surrounding nature.El presente ensayo tiene como contexto la agudización de la violencia en el actual conflicto entre comunidades mapuche y el Estado, en las regiones de la Araucanía y Los Ríos de Chile, a propósito de la explotación de recursos naturales como bosques, agua y costas, lo que da cuenta de una falta de marco teórico de lectura adecuada de este conflicto que permita al Estado elaborar políticas públicas que posibilite encontrar una vía de solución pacífica y legítima al conflicto. A partir de lo anterior, este ensayo intenta un diálogo entre la filosofía y la antropología a fin de reflexionar sobre la constitución de la identidad indígena, y cómo -a diferencia de la identidad abstracta del hombre moderno- dicha identidad se organiza a partir de relación con la naturaleza circundante

How to better represent preferences in choice models: the contributions to preference heterogeneity attributable to the presence of process heterogeneity

Discrete choice studies, with rare exception, assume that agents act as if sources of observed utility are captured through a linear in parameters and additive in attributes (LPAA) form, with some interactions. A growing number of transport (and other) choice studies have investigated one or more alternative processing rules adopted by agents in arriving at a choice, raising interest in how best to represent the utility expressions in a joint process and outcome choice model. Given the popular and appealing random parameter treatment of LPAA in mixed logit as a way of identifying non-systematic preference heterogeneity in a sample, this paper considers the possibility that we might be able to interact specific process heuristics with LPAA to uncover sources of systematic preference heterogeneity hidden in the standard LPAA form, and hence establish a link between the LPAA form and candidate process heuristics, offering a way to embellish and hence clarify the contributions to preference heterogeneity attributable to the presence of process heterogeneity. Specifically, we are interested in the extent to which there is a systematic relationship between the simple LPAA form and the more complex (albeit behaviourally realistic) process heuristics emerging in the transport literature which we call conditioning by random process heterogeneity (CRPH). In this paper, in addition to LPAA, we consider two process heuristics - Value Learning, and Relative Advantage Maximisation - with an overlay to account for risk attitudes, perceptual conditioning, and overt experience. The findings, using two data sets, suggest that empirically there exists a significant attribute-specific relationship between preference heterogeneity identified through specific process heuristics and through the LPAA assumption

“Justicia global, impuesto a la ciudadanía y fronteras abiertas” Daniel Loewe, Revista Filosofía, 2018, pp. 243-273

Resnción: Loewe, Daniel (2018). “Justicia global, impuesto a la ciudadanía y fronteras abiertas” en: HYBRIS: Revista de Filosofía, vol.9 Nº Especial: Debates contemporáneos sobre Justicia Social,julio 2018, pp.243-273

Heterogeneity in decision processes: Embedding extremeness aversion, risk attitude and perceptual conditioning in multiple heuristics choice making

There is an increasing interest, in the discrete choice modelling literature, in alternative behavioural paradigms that represent ways in which individuals make choices when faced with a choice set of alternatives, under conditions defined by revealed preference, stated choice or a mixture of both data sources. Attribute processing has come of age, and we see many studies using process heuristics such as attribute non-attendance (ANA), relative advantage maximisation (RAM), extremeness aversion (EA) and value learning (VL). With some exceptions (e.g., papers by Hensher, Hess, Scarpa, Campbell and colleagues, and Balbontin et el. 2017, 2017a), the study of each heuristic has been undertaken in isolation from other candidate heuristics; the exceptions being a joint investigation into a fully compensatory model defined by a linear additive in attributes and parameters specification and one process heuristic, commonly using latent class models (reinterpreted as probabilistic decision processing). Within the set of more than one candidate heuristic, limited account has been taken of the possibility that attributes are being processed under varying levels of risk attitude (instead assuming risk neutrality), and where multiple levels of an attribute might be observed in real markets (such as travel time over repeated trips with associated occurrences) and/or designed into stated choice experiments, no account is taken of perceptual conditioning. This paper investigates the role that two behaviourally appealing heuristics or decision rules play jointly in explaining choice making, both of which reflect risk attitude in different ways, where each heuristic contributes up to a probability within a sampled population both within and between respondents’ selection of a relevant multiple-heuristic utility expression. We jointly estimate a model that accounts for (i) extremeness aversion and (ii) an extended expected utility transformation for an attribute that accounts for risk attitude and perceptual conditioning. We use a stated choice experiment associated with a commuter car choice between tolled and nontolled roads in Australia, and compare the key behavioural output, the value of travel time savings (VTTS), obtained from the joint model and two stand-alone models. The findings suggest, after accounting for the probability of choosing each heuristic by each individual, in their construction of an empirical utility expression representing each alternative tolled road, that the mean VTTS from the multiple-heuristic model ($24.32/person hour) lies between the mean estimates obtained from the stand alone models ($21.45/person hour under extremeness aversion, and $29.19 when accounting for risk attitude and perceptual conditioning). The extremeness aversion heuristic has, on average, a 0.63 probability of relevance compared to a 0.27 probability of relevance for the other heuristic. Extremeness aversion (or seeking) is an appealing way of handling degrees of attribute risk that are not explicitly conditioned on the more traditionally identified risk parameter

Do preferences for BRT and LRT change as a voter, citizen, tax payer, or self- interested resident?

Interest in modal preferences remains a topic of high interest as governments make infrastructure decisions that often favour one mode over the other. An informative input into the infrastructure selection process should be the preferences of residents, since they can guide buy in to support political and bureaucratic choice making. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses the self-interest preferences of individuals as the relevant interpretation of ‘individual preferences count’, which in aggregate represent the benefit to society of candidate investments. However, the CBA benefit calculations can be rather restrictive with other preference metrics often being identified and used in various ways to inform the debate on infrastructure support. In this paper we assess how the preferences for bus rapid transit (BRT) and light rail transit (LRT) change with different roles the residents may play: a citizen or altruistic resident, a self-interested resident, a tax-payer, and as a voter. We use data collected in five countries to investigate preference differences and also to establish whether there is replicability of the findings across geographical jurisdictions. The findings suggest that there are, in general, noticeable differences in preference revelation across the metrics; however there are also both similarities and differences in the role of specific attribute drivers (as represented by willingness to pay, and magnitude of support for a specific mode) within and between preference metrics across countries

Analyse de la détérioration de la forêt de la Cordillère de la Costa dans le sud chilien : géomatique et modélisation prospective appliquée sur une forêt patrimoniale de la province d'Osorno (41º 15’ - 41º 00’ latitude Sud)

SAn area of the Cordillera de la Costa is studied in southern Chile (41°15'S - 41°00'S), inhabited by ethnic Mapuche. There are still valuable temperate forests that have high conservation priority worldwide. But it is found, a continuous process of transformation related to the extraction of firewood, ranching, disruption of habitat conifer Fitzroya cupressoides, and deployment of forest plantations. Based on a multi-temporal satellite images classification, a spatial-temporal modeling was implemented to understand and predict the dynamics of the deterioration of the forest. Retrospective analysis revealed that between 1976 and 2008, the forest has been reduced 12,400 ha, a deforestation rate of 0.25% per annum. 20 models of deforestation are calibrated, 4 of them are selected to construct scenarios. The simulation predicted that reductions of forest between 2008 and 2040 could reach 13,000 ha. Two other models implemented simulate changes in habitat quality F. cupressoides. Scenarios predict an increase in the damaged surface; extrapolating from the learning period 2001-2008 during which the largest share of indigenous lands was legalized, compared with the previous period to 2001, predicts a significant increase in the damaged surface. In this way, it provides a tool to enhance the local management of environmental systems still not incorporated into the Chilean planning. Finally, the thesis also makes interesting comparisons between models that differ with respect to the calibration parameters.On étudie une zone de la Cordillère de la Costa au sud du Chili (41°15'S-41°00'S), habitée par l'ethnie Mapuche. Là, il y a encore des précieuses forêts tempérées, qui ont une haute priorité de conservation au plan mondial. Mais, il est constaté, un processus continu de transformation lié à l'extraction de bois de chauffe, l'élevage extensif, la perturbation de l'habitat du conifère Fitzroya cupressoides, et le déploiement des plantations forestières. Sur la base d'une classification multi-temporelle d'images satellite, une modélisation spatio-temporelle a été mise en œuvre pour comprendre et anticiper la dynamique de la détérioration de la forêt. L'analyse rétrospective révèle qu'entre 1976 et 2008, la forêt a été réduite 12400 ha, soit un taux de déforestation 0,25% par an. 20 modèles de déforestation sont calibrés, 4 d'entre eux sont sélectionnés pour construire des scénarios prospectifs. La simulation prévoit que la diminution de forêt entre 2008 et 2040 pourrait atteindre 13000 ha. Deux autres modèles mis en œuvre simulent l'évolution de la qualité de l'habitat de F. cupressoides. Les scénarios prévoient une augmentation de la surface détériorée ; l’extrapolation à partir de la période d’apprentissage 2001-2008 pendant laquelle la plus grande part de terres indigènes a été légalisée, par rapport à la période précédente à 2001, prédit une augmentation plus significative de la surface détériorée. On fournit un outil pour amplifier la gestion territoriale des systèmes environnementaux toujours non incorporée dans la planification chilienne. Enfin, la thèse met également d'intéressantes comparaisons entre modèles qui diffèrent par rapport aux paramètres de calibration

Fichte/Levinas. Un rendez-vous manqué autour de l'altérité

As it is known, Levinas proposes a thought of the otherness that, as absolute or infinite, invites the subjectivity to a relationship without common measure, constitutive of the freedom of the subjectivity. Now, not only in Levinas but also in Fichte it is possible to find this figure of otherness. In fact, he develops it concretely in his 1794 Doctrine of Science, regarding his theory of recognition. The purpose of this article then is to return to these two thinkers to outline both the points of approach and the differences that measure the distance and the fracture between them. On le sait bien, Levinas propose une pensée de l’autre, qui comme absolu ou infini invite à la subjectivité à une relation sans commune mesure qui est constitutive de la liberté du sujet. Or on peut aussi rencontrer chez Fichte cette figure de la priorité de l’Autre dans sa Doctrine de la Science en 1794 où –à propos de la théorie de la reconnaissance intersubjective- il développe cette priorité de l’altérité d’autrui dans le processus de constitution sociale de la subjectivité. Ainsi le propos de cet article est de revenir sur les deux penseurs pour esquisser les points de rapprochements ainsi que les différences qui mesurent la distance aussi bien que les fractures entre Levinas et Fichte