Decision-making under uncertainty: A Brehmerian approach

This article discusses the contributions of the late Professor Berndt Brehmer with an emphasis on dynamic decision making under uncertainty. This concept has a long history as ambiguity implied in selective attention, later emphasised by prospect theory, which incorporates a time dimension. Time may be a solution to problems of uncertainty, not least the timing of decisions with each other and with environmental developments. This approach sees  decision making, from a process perspective, ultimately asking whether it makes sense to frame decisions as specific events or as an expression of an ongoing design process where the possibility spaces are expanded rather than limited to decision making among pre-existing alternatives. A dynamic view of the time dimension also encourages decision making as learning through probing actions and negotiation and collaboration, as well as with the environment. As much as this may sound like a recipe for managing second-track processes, it is also a recipe for managing through direct interaction, albeit a less-than-objective one understood through the biased perception of boundedly rational actors

Multiteam Systems Handling Time-Sensitive Targets: Developing Situation Awareness in Distributed and Co-located Settings

There is an increasing interest in how to organize operations carried out by multiteam systems (MTS). Large MTS typically operate with a dedicated integration team, responsible for coordinating the operation. We report a study of a military multiteam system that prosecute time-sensitive targets. We asked whether and how the integration team’s efficiency depends on its communication setting. Specifically, we studied how a co-located vs. a distributed communications setting influenced the shared situation awareness and whether the shared situation awareness again influenced the outcome of the decision processes. We found that performance fell when the integration team shifted from a co-located to a distributed setting. The fall in performance seemed to be mediated by a corresponding fall in situation awareness. Moreover, while the performance improved for each run in the co-located setting, we did not see such learning in the distributed setting. Qualitative observations revealed that misunderstandings lasted longer in a distributed configuration than in a co-located setting. We found that situation awareness at level 3 was the only level of situation awareness significant for predicting all dimensions of performance. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.publishedVersio

Hummingbirds arrest their kidneys at night: diel variation in glomerular filtration rate in Selasphorus platycercus

© The Company of Biologists Ltd 2004Small nectarivorous vertebrates face a quandary. When feeding, they must eliminate prodigious quantities of water; however, when they are not feeding, they are susceptible to dehydration. We examined the role of the kidney in the resolution of this osmoregulatory dilemma. Broad-tailed hummingbirds (Selasphorus platycercus) displayed diurnal variation in glomerular filtration rate (GFR). During the morning, midday and evening, GFRs were 0.9±0.6, 1.8±0.4 and 2.3±0.5 ml h–1, respectively. At midday, GFR increased linearly with increased water intake. During the evening, hummingbirds decreased renal fractional water reabsorption linearly with increased water intake. Broad-tailed hummingbirds appeared to cease GFR at night (–0.1±0.2 ml h–1) and decreased GFR in response to short-term (~1.5 h) water deprivation. GFR seems to be very responsive to water deprivation in hummingbirds. Although hummingbirds and other nectarivorous birds can consume astounding amounts of water, a phylogenetically explicit allometric analysis revealed that their diurnal GFRs are not different from the expectation based on body mass.Bradley Hartman Bakken, Todd J. McWhorter, Ella Tsahar and Carlos Martínez del Ri

China’s rising hydropower demand challenges water sector

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China based on data from 875 representative reservoirs (209 with power plants). In 2010, the reservoir WF totaled 27.9 × 109 m3 (Gm3), or 22% of China’s total water consumption. Ignoring the reservoir WF seriously underestimates human water appropriation. The reservoir WF associated with industrial, domestic and agricultural WFs caused water scarcity in 6 of the 10 major Chinese river basins from 2 to 12 months annually. The hydropower WF was 6.6 Gm3 yr−1 or 3.6 m3 of water to produce a GJ (109 J) of electricity. Hydropower is a water intensive energy carrier. As a response to global climate change, the Chinese government has promoted a further increase in hydropower energy by 70% by 2020 compared to 2012. This energy policy imposes pressure on available freshwater resources and increases water scarcity. The water-energy nexus requires strategic and coordinated implementations of hydropower development among geographical regions, as well as trade-off analysis between rising energy demand and water use sustainability

Flipped gaming-testing three simulation games

© 2018 IEEE. At the Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences 'flipped gaming' has been tested with two student groups (in 2017). This paper will present a newer version of the 'flipping' and also how a total of eight groups utilized tree different types of simulators to play the scenarios. The scenarios were developed by the student themselves as this was their mandatory assignment. The mandatory assignment was handed out in January. The assignment was about making a playable script for an incident, in addition to conduct the planning, execution and evaluation of a complete exercise in crisis management. They were given feedback once before the workshop where they presented and played the script. The tools that were used was Rayvn (https://rayvn.global/), Microsoft HoloLens (https://www.microsoft.com/nb-no/hololens) and a simulator based on a platform from Bohemia Interactive Solutions (https://bisimulations.com/)-the same platform as Virtual Battle Space 3 uses. Rayvn is an incident management tool, mainly for communication. The written messages can then be logged and stored for later reflections. Microsoft HoloLens is a tool for 3D vision, a tool that can show environments in 3D and allow the player to carry out operations using movements that are recorded and executed. This was a prototype. The game based simulator is computer based. The different views are 2D maps and 3D environments. The players use the keyboard and mouse to move the vehicles and avatars around. This in a 'disaster town', called 'Lyngvik', a very poor planned city centre with a large accident/crisis potential. The study is based on the previous study of the learning outcome from assignment that is based on student input. The mandatory assignment was to develop a playable scenario and they could choose in which of the three different simulation tools they were to play their scenario. Two by two, the groups are to play each other's scenario. They have received some supervision and the lecturers have remarked on that the students may lack insight in what a 'playable scenario' require. One of the groups operates as the exercise management staff(the ones that makes the incidents happen and 'play out') and the other group is the ones who man the different roles in handling the scenario e.g.,-different call out services. This group is also calledmain training audience (MTA). The students are in their 6th and last semester in their Bachelor in Crisis Management. The students have been subjected to diverse teaching methods, but this is the first time they have a simulation tool to work with in order to enhance their learning outcome. The preliminary reports from the reflections after the simulating are very positive. The students report on a learning outcome, both from making the scenarios and from simulating. There is also a final report to be written where the students are to reflect on their learning outcome from the simulation and the work on the assignment. The paper shows the results from the whole undertaking and presents further details from the different phases. We also present the theoretical backdrop and the methodological reasoning behind the data collection and analysis

Using games for teaching crisis communication in higher education and training

© 2016 IEEE. Terror actions and catastrophes are frequently described in media. As more and more countries experience terror actions and natural disasters, there has been a greater focus on learning how to handle and to manage them. In Norway on the 22nd of July 2011, Anders Behring Breivik placed a bomb in a car that exploded near the Governmental Offices killing 8 persons. He went on to an island where there was a political camp for youths killing another 67. The rescue operations unveiled an unprepared task force. The Gjrv-report provide a massive critique towards the call out services [1]. This kicked off a major work on updating safety routines in all municipalities. The municipalities are now obliged to have a plan for crisis preparedness [2]. This again triggered the need for education within the area of crisis preparedness, crisis training and crisis management. Hedmark University of Applied Science now offers different study programs, including a BA within these areas. It is, however, very expensive to train realistically and the need for different approaches regarding training has been discussed. One of the solutions that the University is currently working on, is the use of games. Game based learning, also called 'serious games', has become an academic genre and using games for learning and training has proven fruitful [3-12]. In the military, games have been used for simulation purposes [13] and spin offs from these have also reached a commercial market [14, 15]. Using games in education opens up a range of opportunities. One of them is within the area of Crisis Communication. Crisis Communication as a curriculum is about how to approach the area of crisis communication, understanding the key concepts and develop skills within the curriculum. Games that support communication between the gamers can for instance contribute towards a greater understanding of communication in a crisis situation. What is needed to communicate and how messages are received, in order to support handling a crisis, are amongst the concrete learning objectives one can attribute towards this type of training. To use games to support the hands on training can thus provide the learners with valuable know how, and support their learning outcome. The learning from this will be beneficial to the organizations they work in as they will have an experience that will aid them in the work on planning for and preparing for crisis in their own organizations

Student input-A case of an extended flipped classroom

© 2017 IEEE. The idea from Socrates about the knowledge being a part of the students' knowledge base or ability of combining accessible knowledge forms the backdrop for how the most recent course in Knowledge Management (spring of 2017) was conducted. The course is 7,5 ECTS and the students are primarily adults in a worklife. The course is net and seminar based, with three seminars per semester. During the seminars the concept of Flipped Classroom is used. This means that the students are provided with a recorded lecture in beforehand and only highlights are presented. The rest of the time during the seminar is used to activate the students through tasks and problem solving. However, the tasks are not predefined and prefabricated. The way this course is structured, the students themselves are giving the input to the tasks and assignments. This is based on the idea that the students themselves, coming from a worklife where knowledge management is a part of their every day worklife, should reflect upon their own practice. Also, it is important to share knowledge and by utilizing each students own experiences it is possible to enrich the 'database' of cases or tasks for the students to solve and work with in order to incorporate the new theory from the course curriculum. Basing the problem solving on student input provide the lecturer AND the students with a richer knowledge base and case portfolio. This does, however, require some effort from the lecturers side. The input from the students are generally key words and fragments. The session is facilitated by the lecturer, encouraging the students to bring forward own experiences or situations they would like resolved, either real or fiction. The key words and fragments are discussed amongst the students and the lecturer makes notes on a blackboard or on a digital canvas (MS PowerPoint or similar). The students are given a break and the lecturer collects the key words and synthesizes this into a case. Upon the return of the students, they solve the cases in groups and discuss possible solutions and what theory that apply to the different aspects of the case. Then a plenary session is facilitated where a suggested solution is developed. During a one-day seminar three to four cases are developed as a 'joint venture' amongst the students and the lecturer. The feedback from the students is very positive. They claim that this way of working strongly contributes to an enhanced learning outcome. Some students also report on utilizing knowledge acquired at these seminars back at their workplace. These are some results from the survey and interviews. This research will be presented in detail in the paper. We will also elaborate on how this way of flipping the classroom can be utilized in different courses and areas

Induced abortion on demand and birth rate in Sami-speaking municipalities and a control group in Finnmark, Norway

Objectives. The objective of this study was to analyze the birth and induced abortion on demand (IAD) rate among women in Sami-speaking communities and a control group in Finnmark County, Norway. Methods. The 6 northern municipalities included in the administration area of the Sami language law (study group) were matched with a control group of 9 municipalities. Population data (numbers, sex and age) were accessed from Statistics Norway. Data on birth rate and IAD during the time period 1999–2009 were derived from the Medical Birth Registry (MBR) of Norway. Data on number of women in fertile age (15–44 years) were obtained from Statistics Norway. Between 2001 and 2008, this age group was reduced by 12% (Sami) and 23% (controls), respectively. Results. Finnmark County has a high IAD rate and 1 in 4 pregnancies (spontaneous abortions excluded) ended in IAD in the study and control groups. The total fertility rate per woman was 1.94 and 1.87 births, respectively. There was no difference between groups with regard to the IAD/birth ratio (P=0.94) or general fertility rate GFR (P=0.82). Conclusions. Women in the Sami-majority area and a control group in Finnmark County experienced a similar frequency of IAD and fertility rate

Regulation of denitrification at the cellular level: a clue to the understanding of N2O emissions from soils

Denitrifying prokaryotes use NOx as terminal electron acceptors in response to oxygen depletion. The process emits a mixture of NO, N2O and N2, depending on the relative activity of the enzymes catalysing the stepwise reduction of NO3− to N2O and finally to N2. Cultured denitrifying prokaryotes show characteristic transient accumulation of NO2−, NO and N2O during transition from oxic to anoxic respiration, when tested under standardized conditions, but this character appears unrelated to phylogeny. Thus, although the denitrifying community of soils may differ in their propensity to emit N2O, it may be difficult to predict such characteristics by analysis of the community composition. A common feature of strains tested in our laboratory is that the relative amounts of N2O produced (N2O/(N2+N2O) product ratio) is correlated with acidity, apparently owing to interference with the assembly of the enzyme N2O reductase. The same phenomenon was demonstrated for soils and microbial communities extracted from soils. Liming could be a way to reduce N2O emissions, but needs verification by field experiments. More sophisticated ways to reduce emissions may emerge in the future as we learn more about the regulation of denitrification at the cellular level

A Current Mode Detector Array for Gamma-Ray Asymmetry Measurements

We have built a CsI(Tl) gamma-ray detector array for the NPDGamma experiment to search for a small parity-violating directional asymmetry in the angular distribution of 2.2 MeV gamma-rays from the capture of polarized cold neutrons by protons with a sensitivity of several ppb. The weak pion-nucleon coupling constant can be determined from this asymmetry. The small size of the asymmetry requires a high cold neutron flux, control of systematic errors at the ppb level, and the use of current mode gamma-ray detection with vacuum photo diodes and low-noise solid-state preamplifiers. The average detector photoelectron yield was determined to be 1300 photoelectrons per MeV. The RMS width seen in the measurement is therefore dominated by the fluctuations in the number of gamma rays absorbed in the detector (counting statistics) rather than the intrinsic detector noise. The detectors were tested for noise performance, sensitivity to magnetic fields, pedestal stability and cosmic background. False asymmetries due to gain changes and electronic pickup in the detector system were measured to be consistent with zero to an accuracy of $10^{-9}$ in a few hours. We report on the design, operating criteria, and the results of measurements performed to test the detector array.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures, 2 table