Five Principles for Vertical Merger Enforcement Policy

There seems to be consensus that the Department of Justice’s 1984 Vertical Merger Guidelines do not reflect either modern theoretical and empirical economic analysis or current agency enforcement policy. Yet widely divergent views of preferred enforcement policies have been expressed among agency enforcers and commentators. Based on our review of the relevant economic literature and our experience analyzing vertical mergers, we recommend that the enforcement agencies adopt five principles: (i) The agencies should consider and investigate the full range of potential anticompetitive harms when evaluating vertical mergers; (ii) The agencies should decline to presume that vertical mergers benefit competition on balance in the oligopoly markets that typically prompt agency review, nor set a higher evidentiary standard based on such a presumption; (iii) The agencies should evaluate claimed efficiencies resulting from vertical mergers as carefully and critically as they evaluate claimed efficiencies resulting from horizontal mergers, and require the merging parties to show that the efficiencies are verifiable, merger-specific and sufficient to reverse the potential anticompetitive effects; (iv) The agencies should decline to adopt a safe harbor for vertical mergers, even if rebuttable, except perhaps when both firms compete in unconcentrated markets; (v) The agencies should consider adopting rebuttable anticompetitive presumptions that a vertical merger harms competition when certain factual predicates are satisfied. We do not intend these presumptions to describe all the ways by which vertical mergers can harm competition, so the agencies should continue to investigate vertical mergers that raise concerns about input and customer foreclosure, loss of a disruptive or maverick firm, evasion of rate regulation or other threats to competition, even if the specific factual predicates of the presumptions are not satisfied

Presence of Observers Increases One Repetition Maximum in College-age Males and Females

Purpose: To determine if the presence of observers affects muscular strength performance in college-age males and females. Methods: Twenty-five women and 24 men participated in the study. Two counter-balanced trials were performed in which participants completed 1-RM tests in bench press and leg press. During one trial, two members of the opposite gender observed the 1-RM tests. During the other trial there were no observers, other than the tester. Results: 1-RM for females increased 3.4±0.8 lbs on bench press (p\u3c.001) and increased 9.2±3.8 lbs on leg press (p=.025) when observers were present. 1-RM for males increased 4.2±1.1 lbs on bench press (p=.001) and increased 18.8±5.2 lbs on leg press (p=.002) with observers present. There was no difference in the percent increase in 1-RM between males and females for either leg press (p=.71) or bench press (p=.08). Conclusion: College-age males and females lifted more weight during a 1-RM test when observers were present

Convergence in Nitrogen Deposition and Cryptic Isotopic Variation Across Urban and Agricultural Valleys in Northern Utah

The extent to which atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition reflects land use differences and biogenic versus fossil fuel reactive N sources remains unclear yet represents a critical uncertainty in ecosystem N budgets. We compared N concentrations and isotopes in precipitation-event bulk (wet + dry) deposition across nearby valleys in northern Utah with contrasting land use (highly urban versus intensive agriculture/low-density urban). We predicted greater nitrate (NO3−) versus ammonium (NH4+) and higher δ15N of NO3− and NH4+ in urban valley sites. Contrary to expectations, annual N deposition (3.5–5.1 kg N ha−1 yr−1) and inorganic N concentrations were similar within and between valleys. Significant summertime decreases in δ15N of NO3− possibly reflected increasing biogenic emissions in the agricultural valley. Organic N was a relatively minor component of deposition (~13%). Nearby paired wildland sites had similar bulk deposition N concentrations as the urban and agricultural sites. Weighted bulk deposition δ15N was similar to natural ecosystems (−0.6 ± 0.7‰). Fine atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5) had consistently high values of bulk δ15N (15.6 ± 1.4‰), δ15N in NH4+ (22.5 ± 1.6‰), and NO3− (8.8 ± 0.7‰), consistent with equilibrium fractionation with gaseous species. The δ15N in bulk deposition NH4+ varied by more than 40‰, and spatial variation in δ15N within storms exceeded 10‰. Sporadically high values of δ15N were thus consistent with increased particulate N contributions as well as potential N source variation. Despite large differences in reactive N sources, urban and agricultural landscapes are not always strongly reflected in the composition and fluxes of local N deposition—an important consideration for regional-scale ecosystem models

Recommendations and Comments on the Draft Vertical Merger Guidelines

These recommendations and comments respond to the request by the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division for public comment on the draft 2020 Vertical Merger Guidelines. We commend the agencies for updating the 1984 non-horizontal merger guidelines by recognizing the substantial advances in economic thinking about vertical mergers in the thirty-five years since those guidelines were issued. Our comments emphasize four issues: (i) the treatment of the elimination of double marginalization (“EDM”), particularly that the draft vertical merger guidelines appear inappropriately to make proof of cognizability part of the agencies burden and that they appear to inappropriately treat the merging firm’s failure to have eliminated double marginalization pre-merger as proof that the merger would lead to EDM and that the post-merger EDM would be merger-specific; (ii) the seemingly arbitrary and inappropriately permissive safe harbor; (iii) the inappropriate (though perhaps unintended) apparent requirement that harms be quantified; and (iv) the inappropriate (though perhaps unintended) apparent requirement that the agencies show that foreclosure would not have been profitable before the merger. We are concerned that these features of the draft Guidelines will lead to under-enforcement and false negatives (including under-deterrence)

Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem δ18O

We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem O-18 (O-18(spel)): potential non-stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger-scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a O-18(spel) record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea-Caspian pattern since 1ka. Stalagmite O-18 is predicted for the last 500years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic O-18 of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the O-18(spel) record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope-enabled general circulation models are now required

Complexity of childhood sexual abuse: predictors of current post-traumatic stress disorder, mood disorders, substance use, and sexual risk behavior among adult men who have sex with men

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are the group most at risk for HIV and represent the majority of new infections in the United States. Rates of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) among MSM have been estimated as high as 46 %. CSA is associated with increased risk of HIV and greater likelihood of HIV sexual risk behavior. The purpose of this study was to identify the relationships between CSA complexity indicators and mental health, substance use, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV sexual risk among MSM. MSM with CSA histories (n = 162) who were screened for an HIV prevention efficacy trial completed comprehensive psychosocial assessments. Five indicators of complex CSA experiences were created: CSA by family member, CSA with penetration, CSA with physical injury, CSA with intense fear, and first CSA in adolescence. Adjusted regression models were used to identify relationships between CSA complexity and outcomes. Participants reporting CSA by family member were at 2.6 odds of current alcohol use disorder (OR 2.64: CI 1.24–5.63), two times higher odds of substance use disorder (OR 2.1: CI 1.02–2.36), and 2.7 times higher odds of reporting an STI in the past year (OR 2.7: CI 1.04–7.1). CSA with penetration was associated with increased likelihood of current PTSD (OR 3.17: CI 1.56–6.43), recent HIV sexual risk behavior (OR 2.7: CI 1.16–6.36), and a greater number of casual sexual partners (p = 0.02). Both CSA with Physical Injury (OR 4.05: CI 1.9–8.7) and CSA with Intense Fear (OR 5.16: CI 2.5–10.7) were related to increased odds for current PTSD. First CSA in adolescence was related to increased odds of major depressive disorder. These findings suggest that CSA, with one or more complexities, creates patterns of vulnerabilities for MSM, including post-traumatic stress disorder, substance use, and sexual risk taking, and suggests the need for detailed assessment of CSA and the development of integrated HIV prevention programs that address mental health and substance use comorbidities.This study was supported by a Grant from the NIMH (R01 MH095624) PI: O'Cleirigh; Author time (Safren) was supported, in part, by Grant 5K24MH094214. (R01 MH095624 - NIMH; 5K24MH094214)Accepted manuscrip

Head--on Collision of Two Unequal Mass Black Holes

We present results from the first fully nonlinear numerical calculations of the head--on collision of two unequal mass black holes. Selected waveforms of the most dominant l=2, 3 and 4 quasinormal modes are shown, as are the total radiated energies and recoil velocities for a range of mass ratios and initial separations. Our results validate the close and distant separation limit perturbation studies, and suggest that the head--on collision scenario is not likely to produce an astrophysically significant recoil effect.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Thermodynamics for two flavor QCD

We conclude our analysis of the N_t=6 equation of state for two flavor QCD, first described at last year's conference. We have obtained new runs at am_q=0.025 and improved runs at am_q=0.0125. The results are extrapolated to m_q=0, and we extract the speed of sound as well. We also present evidence for a restoration of the SU(2) X SU(2) chiral symmetry just above the crossover, but not of the axial U(1) chiral symmetry.Comment: Poster presented at LATTICE96(finite temperature). 4 pages, LaTeX plus 5 encapsulated Postscript figure

Preventing Leader Derailment—A Strategic Imperative for Public Health Agencies

Public health leaders, such as those who serve as state health officials (SHOs), routinely face challenges that are uncertain and complex. Those who reflect on the challenges they face and use those reflections to improve themselves and their teams develop into more effective leaders. Not addressing challenges can lead to the risk of premature “derailment.” In this column, we review research from the Center for Creative Leadership (CCL), a global authority in leadership development, which explores the underlying dynamics of derailment. We also share insights gained from ongoing research into SHO success discussed in prior Management Moment columns.1 , 2 Finally, we offer several thoughts on strategies for preventing derailment among senior public health leaders