Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation

Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative - intensification with increased resource use - also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasised a role for sustainable intensification in closing global 'yield gaps' between the currently realised and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.This work was funded by a grant to the University of Cambridge from BP as part of their Energy Sustainability Challenge.This is the accepted manuscript version. The final version is available from Nature Climate Change at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2353.html

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing-increasing agricultural yields, reducing farm land area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the United Kingdom as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential, however economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realised in practice.This research was funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund for Conservation and we thank its major sponsor Arcadia. We thank J. Bruinsma for the provision of demand data, the CEH for the provision of soil data and J. Spencer for invaluable discussions. A.L. was supported by a Gates Cambridge Scholarship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate291

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies

Aquaponics and global food challenges

As the world’s population grows, the demands for increased food pro- duction expand, and as the stresses on resources such as land, water and nutrients become ever greater, there is an urgent need to find alternative, sustainable and reliable methods to provide this food. The current strategies for supplying more produce are neither ecologically sound nor address the issues of the circular econ- omy of reducing waste whilst meeting the WHO’s Millennium Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty by 2015. Aquaponics, a technology that integrates aquaculture and hydroponics, provides part of the solution. Although aquaponics has developed considerably over recent decades, there are a number of key issues that still need to be fully addressed, including the development of energy-efficient systems with optimized nutrient recycling and suitable pathogen controls. There is also a key issue of achieving profitability, which includes effective value chains and efficient supply chain management. Legislation, licensing and policy are also keys to the success of future aquaponics, as are the issues of education and research, which are discussed across this book

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21st-century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions

Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up.

Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined

Balancing the needs of all services provided by global water resources

Global assessments of water use tend to focus on the supply side, where data on physical hydrology provide an apparently (but often questionable) secure underpinning. However, one difficulty with this approach is that it struggles to deal with the issues of multiple uses of water and of treatment and recycling. Another is that global analysis offers little guidance to water policy and management, which invariably and necessarily act at more local scales. An alternative approach is therefore to evaluate demand for the goods and services offered by water, to both human beings and to ecosystems, and then to map these demands back onto resource flows. This paper describes the sources (precipitation, surface water and groundwater) and the uses of water in delivering all of its services (including its provisioning of environmental services), and uses two Sankey diagrams to visualise this system. The results stress the need for an integrated assessment of all water sources and services, simultaneously considering human and ecosystem needs, and highlighting the need to improve human water-use efficiency and productivity rather than lazily invading further the needs of ecosystems on whose additional services humans rely