The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Transmission Heterogeneity and Control Strategies for Infectious Disease Emergence

The control of emergence and spread of infectious diseases depends critically on the details of the genetic makeup of pathogens and hosts, their immunological, behavioral and ecological traits, and the pattern of temporal and spatial contacts among the age/stage-classes of susceptible and infectious host individuals.We show that failing to acknowledge the existence of heterogeneities in the transmission rate among age/stage-classes can make traditional eradication and control strategies ineffective, and in some cases, policies aimed at controlling pathogen emergence can even increase disease incidence in the host. When control strategies target for reduction in numbers those subsets of the population that effectively limit the production of new susceptible individuals, then control can produce a flush of new susceptibles entering the population. The availability of a new cohort of susceptibles may actually increase disease incidence. We illustrate these general points using Classical Swine Fever as a reference disease.Negative effects of culling are robust to alternative formulations of epidemiological processes and underline the importance of better assessing transmission structure in the design of wildlife disease control strategies

Cell salvage and donor blood transfusion during cesarean section: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial (SALVO)

BACKGROUND: Excessive haemorrhage at cesarean section requires donor (allogeneic) blood transfusion. Cell salvage may reduce this requirement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (at 26 obstetric units; participants recruited from 4 June 2013 to 17 April 2016) of routine cell salvage use (intervention) versus current standard of care without routine salvage use (control) in cesarean section among women at risk of haemorrhage. Randomisation was stratified, using random permuted blocks of variable sizes. In an intention-to-treat analysis, we used multivariable models, adjusting for stratification variables and prognostic factors identified a priori, to compare rates of donor blood transfusion (primary outcome) and fetomaternal haemorrhage ≥2 ml in RhD-negative women with RhD-positive babies (a secondary outcome) between groups. Among 3,028 women randomised (2,990 analysed), 95.6% of 1,498 assigned to intervention had cell salvage deployed (50.8% had salvaged blood returned; mean 259.9 ml) versus 3.9% of 1,492 assigned to control. Donor blood transfusion rate was 3.5% in the control group versus 2.5% in the intervention group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 to 1.01, p = 0.056; adjusted risk difference -1.03, 95% CI -2.13 to 0.06). In a planned subgroup analysis, the transfusion rate was 4.6% in women assigned to control versus 3.0% in the intervention group among emergency cesareans (adjusted OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99), whereas it was 2.2% versus 1.8% among elective cesareans (adjusted OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.83) (interaction p = 0.46). No case of amniotic fluid embolism was observed. The rate of fetomaternal haemorrhage was higher with the intervention (10.5% in the control group versus 25.6% in the intervention group, adjusted OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 22.14, p = 0.013). We are unable to comment on long-term antibody sensitisation effects. CONCLUSIONS: The overall reduction observed in donor blood transfusion associated with the routine use of cell salvage during cesarean section was not statistically significant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was prospectively registered on ISRCTN as trial number 66118656 and can be viewed on http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66118656

Chronic hypothermia and energy expenditure in a neurodevelopmentally disabled patient: a case study

Hypothermia is defined as a core body temperature of \u3c35°C and results in a decrease in measured resting energy expenditure. A 51-year-old mentally disabled patient experienced chronic hypothermia from neurologic sequelae. Because of her continued weight gain and increased body fat in the presence of presumed hypocaloric nutrition, indirect calorimetry measurements were performed twice in a 3-month period. The resting energy expenditure measurements prompted a reduction of her daily caloric intake to prevent further overfeeding. Hypothermia reduces oxygen consumption and, as a consequence, decreases resting energy expenditure. In patients for whom chronic hypothermia is a problem, nutritional intake must be adjusted to prevent overfeeding, excessive weight gain, and the long-term complications of an excess of total calories

Lions and Prions and Deer Demise

Background: Contagious prion diseases – scrapie of sheep and chronic wasting disease of several species in the deer family – give rise to epidemics that seem capable of compromising host population viability. Despite this prospect, the ecological consequences of prion disease epidemics in natural populations have received little consideration. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using a cohort study design, we found that prion infection dramatically lowered survival of free-ranging adult (.2-year-old) mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus): estimated average life expectancy was 5.2 additional years for uninfected deer but only 1.6 additional years for infected deer. Prion infection also increased nearly fourfold the rate of mountain lions (Puma concolor) preying on deer, suggesting that epidemics may alter predator–prey dynamics by facilitating hunting success. Despite selective predation, about one fourth of the adult deer we sampled were infected. High prevalence and low survival of infected deer provided a plausible explanation for the marked decline in this deer population since the 1980s. Conclusion: Remarkably high infection rates sustained in the face of intense predation show that even seemingly complete ecosystems may offer little resistance to the spread and persistence of contagious prion diseases. Moreover, the depression of infected populations may lead to local imbalances in food webs and nutrient cycling in ecosystems in which deer ar

Mosquito Infection Responses to Developing Filarial Worms

Human lymphatic filariasis is a mosquito-vectored disease caused by the nematode parasites Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi and Brugia timori. These are relatively large roundworms that can cause considerable damage in compatible mosquito vectors. In order to assess how mosquitoes respond to infection in compatible mosquito-filarial worm associations, microarray analysis was used to evaluate transcriptome changes in Aedes aegypti at various times during B. malayi development. Changes in transcript abundance in response to the different stages of B. malayi infection were diverse. At the early stages of midgut and thoracic muscle cell penetration, a greater number of genes were repressed compared to those that were induced (20 vs. 8). The non-feeding, intracellular first-stage larvae elicited few differences, with 4 transcripts showing an increased and 9 a decreased abundance relative to controls. Several cecropin transcripts increased in abundance after parasites molted to second-stage larvae. However, the greatest number of transcripts changed in abundance after larvae molted to third-stage larvae and migrated to the head and proboscis (120 induced, 38 repressed), including a large number of putative, immunity-related genes (∼13% of genes with predicted functions). To test whether the innate immune system of mosquitoes was capable of modulating permissiveness to the parasite, we activated the Toll and Imd pathway controlled rel family transcription factors Rel1 and Rel2 (by RNA interference knockdown of the pathway's negative regulators Cactus and Caspar) during the early stages of infection with B. malayi. The activation of either of these immune signaling pathways, or knockdown of the Toll pathway, did not affect B. malayi in Ae. aegypti. The possibility of LF parasites evading mosquito immune responses during successful development is discussed

Electronic patient self-assessment and management (SAM): a novel framework for cancer survivorship

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We propose a novel framework for management of cancer survivorship: electronic patient Self-Assessment and Management (SAM). SAM is a framework for transfer of information to and from patients in such a way as to increase both the patient's and the health care provider's understanding of the patient's progress, and to help ensure that patient care follows best practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients who participate in the SAM system are contacted by email at regular intervals and asked to complete validated questionnaires online. Patient responses on these questionnaires are then analyzed in order to provide patients with real-time, online information about their progress and to provide them with tailored and standardized medical advice. Patient-level data from the questionnaires are ported in real time to the patient's health care provider to be uploaded to clinic notes. An initial version of SAM has been developed at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) for aiding the clinical management of patients after surgery for prostate cancer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pilot testing at MSKCC and UCSF suggests that implementation of SAM systems are feasible, with no major problems with compliance (> 70% response rate) or security.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>SAM is a conceptually simple framework for passing information to and from patients in such a way as to increase both the patient's and the health care provider's understanding of the patient's progress, and to help ensure that patient care follows best practice.</p

Investigating antimalarial drug interactions of emetine dihydrochloride hydrate using CalcuSyn-based interactivity calculations

The widespread introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy has contributed to recent reductions in malaria mortality. Combination therapies have a range of advantages, including synergism, toxicity reduction, and delaying the onset of resistance acquisition. Unfortunately, antimalarial combination therapy is limited by the depleting repertoire of effective drugs with distinct target pathways. To fast-track antimalarial drug discovery, we have previously employed drug-repositioning to identify the anti-amoebic drug, emetine dihydrochloride hydrate, as a potential candidate for repositioned use against malaria. Despite its 1000-fold increase in in vitro antimalarial potency (ED50 47 nM) compared with its anti-amoebic potency (ED50 26±32 uM), practical use of the compound has been limited by dose-dependent toxicity (emesis and cardiotoxicity). Identification of a synergistic partner drug would present an opportunity for dose-reduction, thus increasing the therapeutic window. The lack of reliable and standardised methodology to enable the in vitro definition of synergistic potential for antimalarials is a major drawback. Here we use isobologram and combination-index data generated by CalcuSyn software analyses (Biosoft v2.1) to define drug interactivity in an objective, automated manner. The method, based on the median effect principle proposed by Chou and Talalay, was initially validated for antimalarial application using the known synergistic combination (atovaquone-proguanil). The combination was used to further understand the relationship between SYBR Green viability and cytocidal versus cytostatic effects of drugs at higher levels of inhibition. We report here the use of the optimised Chou Talalay method to define synergistic antimalarial drug interactivity between emetine dihydrochloride hydrate and atovaquone. The novel findings present a potential route to harness the nanomolar antimalarial efficacy of this affordable natural product

Cardiac fibrosis in aging mice

Dystrophic cardiac calcinosis (DCC), also called epicardial and myocardial fibrosis and mineralization, has been detected in mice of a number of laboratory inbred strains, most commonly C3H/HeJ and DBA/2J. In previous mouse breeding studies between these DCC susceptible and the DCC-resistant strain C57BL/6J, 4 genetic loci harboring genes involved in DCC inheritance were identified and subsequently termed Dyscalc loci 1 through 4. Here, we report susceptibility to cardiac fibrosis, a sub-phenotype of DCC, at 12 and 20 months of age and close to natural death in a survey of 28 inbred mouse strains. Eight strains showed cardiac fibrosis with highest frequency and severity in the moribund mice. Using genotype and phenotype information of the 28 investigated strains, we performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and identified the most significant associations on chromosome (Chr) 15 at 72 million base pairs (Mb) (P < 10(-13)) and Chr 4 at 122 Mb (P < 10(-11)) and 134 Mb (P < 10(-7)). At the Chr 15 locus, Col22a1 and Kcnk9 were identified. Both have been reported to be morphologically and functionally important in the heart muscle. The strongest Chr 4 associations were located approximately 6 Mb away from the Dyscalc 2 quantitative trait locus peak within the boundaries of the Extl1 gene and in close proximity to the Trim63 and Cap1 genes. In addition, a single-nucleotide polymorphism association was found on chromosome 11. This study provides evidence for more than the previously reported 4 genetic loci determining cardiac fibrosis and DCC. The study also highlights the power of GWAS in the mouse for dissecting complex genetic traits.The authors thank Jesse Hammer and Josiah Raddar for technical assistance. Research reported in this publication was supported by the Ellison Medical Foundation, Parker B. Francis Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health (R01AR055225 and K01AR064766). Mouse colonies were supported by the National Institutes of Health under Award Number AG025707 for the Jackson Aging Center. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The Jackson Laboratory Shared Scientific Services were supported in part by a Basic Cancer Center Core Grant from the National Cancer Institute (CA34196).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00335-016-9634-