1,374 research outputs found

    Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

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    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes

    Fluctuating Finite Element Analysis (FFEA): A continuum mechanics software tool for mesoscale simulation of biomolecules

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    Fluctuating Finite Element Analysis (FFEA) is a software package designed to perform continuum mechanics simulations of proteins and other globular macromolecules. It combines conventional finite element methods with stochastic thermal noise, and is appropriate for simulations of large proteins and protein complexes at the mesoscale (length-scales in the range of 5 nm to 1 μm), where there is currently a paucity of modelling tools. It requires 3D volumetric information as input, which can be low resolution structural information such as cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET) maps or much higher resolution atomistic co-ordinates from which volumetric information can be extracted. In this article we introduce our open source software package for performing FFEA simulations which we have released under a GPLv3 license. The software package includes a C ++ implementation of FFEA, together with tools to assist the user to set up the system from Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB) or Protein Data Bank (PDB) data files. We also provide a PyMOL plugin to perform basic visualisation and additional Python tools for the analysis of FFEA simulation trajectories. This manuscript provides a basic background to the FFEA method, describing the implementation of the core mechanical model and how intermolecular interactions and the solvent environment are included within this framework. We provide prospective FFEA users with a practical overview of how to set up an FFEA simulation with reference to our publicly available online tutorials and manuals that accompany this first release of the package

    The Impact of Intermittent Umbilical Cord Occlusions on the Inflammatory Response in Pre-Term Fetal Sheep

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    Fetal hypoxic episodes may occur antepartum with the potential to induce systemic and cerebral inflammatory responses thereby contributing to brain injury. We hypothesized that intermittent umbilical cord occlusions (UCOs) of sufficient severity but without cumulative acidosis will lead to a fetal inflammatory response. Thirty-one chronically instrumented fetal sheep at ∼0.85 of gestation underwent four consecutive days of hourly UCOs from one to three minutes duration for six hours each day. Maternal and fetal blood samples were taken for blood gases/pH and plasma interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 levels. Animals were euthanized at the end of experimental study with brain tissue processed for subsequent counting of microglia and mast cells. Intermittent UCOs resulted in transitory fetal hypoxemia with associated acidemia which progressively worsened the longer umbilical blood flow was occluded, but with no cumulative blood gas or pH changes over the four days of study. Fetal arterial IL-1β and IL-6 values showed no significant change regardless of the severity of the UCOs, nor was there any evident impact on the microglia and mast cell counts for any of the brain regions studied. Accordingly, intermittent UCOs of up to three minutes duration with severe, but limited fetal hypoxemia and no cumulative acidemia, do not result in either a systemic or brain inflammatory response in the pre-term ovine fetus. However, fetal IL-1B and IL-6 values were found to be well correlated with corresponding maternal values supporting the placenta as a primary source for these cytokines with related secretion into both circulations. Female fetuses were also found to have higher IL-1β levels than males, indicating that gender may impact on the fetal inflammatory response to various stimuli

    Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

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    Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature
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