Prediction-Coherent LSTM-based Recurrent Neural Network for Safer Glucose Predictions in Diabetic People

In the context of time-series forecasting, we propose a LSTM-based recurrent neural network architecture and loss function that enhance the stability of the predictions. In particular, the loss function penalizes the model, not only on the prediction error (mean-squared error), but also on the predicted variation error. We apply this idea to the prediction of future glucose values in diabetes, which is a delicate task as unstable predictions can leave the patient in doubt and make him/her take the wrong action, threatening his/her life. The study is conducted on type 1 and type 2 diabetic people, with a focus on predictions made 30-minutes ahead of time. First, we confirm the superiority, in the context of glucose prediction, of the LSTM model by comparing it to other state-of-the-art models (Extreme Learning Machine, Gaussian Process regressor, Support Vector Regressor). Then, we show the importance of making stable predictions by smoothing the predictions made by the models, resulting in an overall improvement of the clinical acceptability of the models at the cost in a slight loss in prediction accuracy. Finally, we show that the proposed approach, outperforms all baseline results. More precisely, it trades a loss of 4.3\% in the prediction accuracy for an improvement of the clinical acceptability of 27.1\%. When compared to the moving average post-processing method, we show that the trade-off is more efficient with our approach

A prospective trial of tacrolimus (FK 506) in clinical heart transplantation: Intermediate-term results

Between January 1, 1989, and December 31, 1994, we have treated 122 primary heart recipients with FK 506 (group I) and 121 with cyclosporine (group II). Fifty patients in the cyclosporine (CyA) group received no lympholytic induction (CyA alone) and 71 others received lympholytic induction with either rabbit antithymocyte globulin or OKT3 (CyA+LI). The mean follow-up was longer in the FK 506 group than in the CyA groups (3.2 ± 1.3 vs 2.3 ± 1.8 years; p < 0.01). Patient survival did not differ on the basis of the type of immunosuppression used. At 3 months after transplantation, the freedom from rejection in the FK 506 group was higher than that of the CyA-alone group (47% vs 22%, p < 0.01) but similar to that of the CyA+LI group (47% vs 53%). The linearized rejection rate (episodes/100 patient-days) of the FK 506 group (0.09 episodes) was lower (p < 0.05) than that of the CyA-alone group (0.26) and the CyA+LI group (0.13). The requirement for pulsed steroids to treat rejection was less in common in the FK 506 group than in either CyA group. Eighteen patients in the CyA group had refractory rejections; all resolved with FK 506 rescue. Two patients in the FK 506 group had refractory rejection that resolved with total lymphoid irradiation (n = 1) and methotrexate therapy (n = 1). Patients receiving FK 506 had a lower risk of hypertension and required a lower dose of steroids. Although the mean serum creatinine concentration at 1 year was higher in the FK 506 group, this difference disappeared after 2 years. No patients required discontinuation of FK 506 because of its side effects. Our intermediate-term results indicate that FK 506 compares favorably with CyA as a primary immunosuppressant in heart transplantation

Modeling of Ultrasonic Signals from Weak Inclusions

Recent research efforts aimed at improving the detection of hard-alpha inclusions have emphasized the need for accurately modeling the responses from such weakly-reflecting inclusions. The need arises because of the rare natural occurrence of hard-alpha inclusions, and consequently, the lacks of suitable experimental samples. These difficulties lend impetus to the application of signal modeling to augment and extend the experimental data in assessing detectability. Currently, a new approach is being developed for the purpose of predicting time-domain echoes from inclusions of specified morphology. This work is the continuation of our previous study of flat-bottomed holes [1–2] in constructing a methodology for estimating the probability of detection of flaws in titanium alloys based on a combination of physical and statistical models

Genomic Analysis of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery is the standard of care for locally advanced esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Unfortunately, response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is poor (20-37%), as is the overall survival benefit at five years (9%). The EAC genome is complex and heterogeneous between patients, and it is not yet understood whether specific mutational patterns may result in chemotherapy sensitivity or resistance. To identify associations between genomic events and response to NAC in EAC, a comparative genomic analysis was performed in 65 patients with extensive clinical and pathological annotation using whole-genome sequencing (WGS). We defined response using Mandard Tumor Regression Grade (TRG), with responders classified as TRG1-2 (n = 27) and non-responders classified as TRG4-5 (n =38). We report a higher non-synonymous mutation burden in responders (median 2.08/Mb vs. 1.70/Mb, p = 0.036) and elevated copy number variation in non-responders (282 vs. 136/patient, p < 0.001). We identified copy number variants unique to each group in our cohort, with cell cycle (CDKN2A, CCND1), c-Myc (MYC), RTK/PIK3 (KRAS, EGFR) and gastrointestinal differentiation (GATA6) pathway genes being specifically altered in non-responders. Of note, NAV3 mutations were exclusively present in the non-responder group with a frequency of 22%. Thus, lower mutation burden, higher chromosomal instability and specific copy number alterations are associated with resistance to NAC

O-RADS US risk stratification and management system: A consensus guideline from the ACR ovarian-adnexal reporting and data system committee.

The Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) US risk stratification and management system is designed to provide consistent interpretations, to decrease or eliminate ambiguity in US reports resulting in a higher probability of accuracy in assigning risk of malignancy to ovarian and other adnexal masses, and to provide a management recommendation for each risk category. It was developed by an international multidisciplinary committee sponsored by the American College of Radiology and applies the standardized reporting tool for US based on the 2018 published lexicon of the O-RADS US working group. For risk stratification, the O-RADS US system recommends six categories (O-RADS 0-5), incorporating the range of normal to high risk of malignancy. This unique system represents a collaboration between the pattern-based approach commonly used in North America and the widely used, European-based, algorithmic-style International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) Assessment of Different Neoplasias in the Adnexa model system, a risk prediction model that has undergone successful prospective and external validation. The pattern approach relies on a subgroup of the most predictive descriptors in the lexicon based on a retrospective review of evidence prospectively obtained in the IOTA phase 1-3 prospective studies and other supporting studies that assist in differentiating management schemes in a variety of almost certainly benign lesions. With O-RADS US working group consensus, guidelines for management in the different risk categories are proposed. Both systems have been stratified to reach the same risk categories and management strategies regardless of which is initially used. At this time, O-RADS US is the only lexicon and classification system that encompasses all risk categories with their associated management schemes

The Evolution of Bat Vestibular Systems in the Face of Potential Antagonistic Selection Pressures for Flight and Echolocation

PMCID: PMC3634842This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Metarhizium brunneum Blastospore Pathogenesis in Aedes aegypti Larvae: Attack on Several Fronts Accelerates Mortality

Aedes aegypti is the vector of a wide range of diseases (e.g. yellow fever, dengue, Chikungunya and Zika) which impact on over half the world's population. Entomopathogenic fungi such as Metarhizium anisopliae and Beauveria bassiana have been found to be highly efficacious in killing mosquito larvae but only now are the underlying mechanisms for pathogenesis being elucidated. Recently it was shown that conidia of M. anisopliae caused stress induced mortality in Ae. aegypti larvae, a different mode of pathogenicity to that normally seen in terrestrial hosts. Blastospores constitute a different form of inoculum produced by this fungus when cultured in liquid media and although blastospores are generally considered to be more virulent than conidia no evidence has been presented to explain why. In our study, using a range of biochemical, molecular and microscopy methods, the infection process of Metarhizium brunneum (formerly M. anisopliae) ARSEF 4556 blastospores was investigated. It appears that the blastospores, unlike conidia, readily adhere to and penetrate mosquito larval cuticle. The blastospores are readily ingested by the larvae but unlike the conidia are able infect the insect through the gut and rapidly invade the haemocoel. The fact that pathogenicity related genes were upregulated in blastospores exposed to larvae prior to invasion, suggests the fungus was detecting host derived cues. Similarly, immune and defence genes were upregulated in the host prior to infection suggesting mosquitoes were also able to detect pathogen-derived cues. The hydrophilic blastospores produce copious mucilage, which probably facilitates adhesion to the host but do not appear to depend on production of Pr1, a cuticle degrading subtilisin protease, for penetration since protease inhibitors did not significantly alter blastospore virulence. The fact the blastospores have multiple routes of entry (cuticle and gut) may explain why this form of the inoculum killed Ae. aegypti larvae in a relatively short time (12-24hrs), significantly quicker than when larvae were exposed to conidia. This study shows that selecting the appropriate form of inoculum is important for efficacious control of disease vectors such as Ae. aegypti

Uncertainty in the Tail of the Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Epidemic in the UK

Despite low case numbers the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic poses many challenges for public health planning due to remaining uncertainties in disease biology and transmission routes. We develop a stochastic model for variant CJD transmission, taking into account the known transmission routes (food and red-cell transfusion) to assess the remaining uncertainty in the epidemic. We use Bayesian methods to obtain scenarios consistent with current data. Our results show a potentially long but uncertain tail in the epidemic, with a peak annual incidence of around 11 cases, but the 95% credibility interval between 1 and 65 cases. These cases are predicted to be due to past food-borne transmissions occurring in previously mostly unaffected genotypes and to transmissions via blood transfusion in all genotypes. However, we also show that the latter are unlikely to be identifiable as transfusion-associated cases by case-linking. Regardless of the numbers of future cases, even in the absence of any further control measures, we do not find any self-sustaining epidemics