Reproducibility in forecasting research

The importance of replication has been recognised across many scientific disciplines. Reproducibility is a necessary condition for replicability, because an inability to reproduce results implies that the methods have not been specified sufficiently, thus precluding replication. This paper describes how two independent teams of researchers attempted to reproduce the empirical findings of an important paper, ‘‘Shrinkage estimators of time series seasonal factors and their effect on forecasting accuracy’’ (Miller & Williams, 2003). The two teams proceeded systematically, reporting results both before and after receiving clarifications from the authors of the original study. The teams were able to approximately reproduce each other’s results, but not those of Miller and Williams. These discrepancies led to differences in the conclusions as to the conditions under which seasonal damping outperforms classical decomposition. The paper specifies the forecasting methods employed using a flowchart. It is argued that this approach to method documentation is complementary to the provision of computer code, as it is accessible to a broader audience of forecasting practitioners and researchers. The significance of this research lies not only in its lessons for seasonal forecasting but also, more generally, in its approach to the reproduction of forecasting research

A fitting formula for the merger timescale of galaxies in hierarchical clustering

We study galaxy mergers using a high-resolution cosmological hydro/N-body simulation with star formation, and compare the measured merger timescales with theoretical predictions based on the Chandrasekhar formula. In contrast to Navarro et al., our numerical results indicate, that the commonly used equation for the merger timescale given by Lacey and Cole, systematically underestimates the merger timescales for minor mergers and overestimates those for major mergers. This behavior is partly explained by the poor performance of their expression for the Coulomb logarithm, \ln (m_pri/m_sat). The two alternative forms \ln (1+m_pri/m_sat) and 1/2\ln [1+(m_pri/m_sat)^2] for the Coulomb logarithm can account for the mass dependence of merger timescale successfully, but both of them underestimate the merger time scale by a factor 2. Since \ln (1+m_pri/m_sat) represents the mass dependence slightly better we adopt this expression for the Coulomb logarithm. Furthermore, we find that the dependence of the merger timescale on the circularity parameter \epsilon is much weaker than the widely adopted power-law \epsilon^{0.78}, whereas 0.94*{\epsilon}^{0.60}+0.60 provides a good match to the data. Based on these findings, we present an accurate and convenient fitting formula for the merger timescale of galaxies in cold dark matter models.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ, minor changes in the last few sentences of the discussio

The prevalence and trends in overweight and obesity in Irish adults between 1990 and 2011

Obesity is a serious public health issue, the prevalence of which is increasing globally. The present study aimed to investigate trends in overweight and obesity in Irish adults between 1990 and 2011. Anthropometric data from three Irish national food consumption surveys were used to calculate trends in BMI, waist circumference and waist:hip ratio. Three cross-sectional food consumption surveys: the Irish National Nutrition Survey (1990), the North/South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (2011). A collective sample of free-living Irish adults (n 3125), aged 18–64 years. There were significant increases in mean weight, height and BMI from 1990 to 2011. Significant increments were also reported in waist and hip circumferences and waist:hip ratio between 2001 and 2011, with concurrent increases in the proportion of individuals at risk of developing CVD, particularly females aged 18–35 years. In 2011, 23·4 % of the Irish population was classified as obese; with the mean BMI increasing by 1·1 kg/m2 between 1990 and 2001 and by 0·6 kg/m2 between 2001 and 2011. The present paper characterises obesity levels in Irish adults from 1990 to 2011. Absolute levels of overweight and obesity have increased between these time points. Of concern is the increase in the proportion of young women classified as at risk of CVD, using waist circumference and waist:hip ratio. Effective prevention strategies are needed to avoid further increases

'They wouldn't know how it feels . . .': characteristics of quality care from young people's perspectives: a participatory research project

Literature suggests there is a need to hear from children themselves about the quality of healthcare they receive and, although their views are increasingly sought, little is known about children’s definitions of ‘high or low quality care’. This article reports on a participatory, qualitative study that set out to explore with children and young people whether they could be involved in monitoring the quality of hospital care. Nine young people played an active role in the research process, collecting data from an additional 129 participants aged between 9 and 14. Five characteristics of quality care were identified: ‘technical expertise’, ‘friendly staff ’, ‘respect’, ‘choice’ and ‘explanations’

Gravitational detection of a low-mass dark satellite at cosmological distance

The mass-function of dwarf satellite galaxies that are observed around Local Group galaxies substantially differs from simulations based on cold dark matter: the simulations predict many more dwarf galaxies than are seen. The Local Group, however, may be anomalous in this regard. A massive dark satellite in an early-type lens galaxy at z = 0.222 was recently found using a new method based on gravitational lensing, suggesting that the mass fraction contained in substructure could be higher than is predicted from simulations. The lack of very low mass detections, however, prohibited any constraint on their mass function. Here we report the presence of a 1.9 +/- 0.1 x 10^8 M_sun dark satellite in the Einstein-ring system JVAS B1938+666 at z = 0.881, where M_sun denotes solar mass. This satellite galaxy has a mass similar to the Sagittarius galaxy, which is a satellite of the Milky Way. We determine the logarithmic slope of the mass function for substructure beyond the local Universe to be alpha = 1.1^+0.6_-0.4, with an average mass-fraction of f = 3.3^+3.6_-1.8 %, by combining data on both of these recently discovered galaxies. Our results are consistent with the predictions from cold dark matter simulations at the 95 per cent confidence level, and therefore agree with the view that galaxies formed hierarchically in a Universe composed of cold dark matter.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Nature (19 January 2012

A standardised assessment scheme for conventional EEG in preterm infants

Objective: To develop a standardised scheme for assessing normal and abnormal electroencephalography (EEG) features of preterm infants. To assess the interobserver agreement of this assessment scheme. Methods: We created a standardised EEG assessment scheme for 6 different post-menstrual age (PMA) groups using 4 EEG categories. Two experts, not involved in the development of the scheme, evaluated this on 24 infants <32 weeks gestational age (GA) using random 2 hour EEG epochs. Where disagreements were found, the features were checked and modified. Finally, the two experts independently evaluated 2 hour EEG epochs from an additional 12 infants <37 weeks GA. The percentage of agreement was calculated as the ratio of agreements to the sum of agreements plus disagreements. Results: Good agreement in all patients and EEG feature category was obtained, with a median agreement between 80% and 100% over the 4 EEG assessment categories. No difference was found in agreement rates between the normal and abnormal features (p = 0.959). Conclusions: We developed a standard EEG assessment scheme for preterm infants that shows good interobserver agreement. Significance: This will provide information to Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) staff about brain activity and maturation. We hope this will prove useful for many centres seeking to use neuromonitoring during critical care for preterm infants

Seizure burden and neurodevelopmental outcome in neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

Aim: To examine the relationship between electrographic seizures and long-term outcome in neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). Method: Full-term neonates with HIE born in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2003 to 2006 (pre-hypothermia era) and 2009 to 2012 (hypothermia era) were included in this observational study. All had early continuous electroencephalography monitoring. All electrographic seizures were annotated. The total seizure burden and hourly seizure burden were calculated. Outcome (normal/abnormal) was assessed at 24 to 48 months in surviving neonates using either the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition or the Griffiths Mental Development Scales; a diagnosis of cerebral palsy or epilepsy was also considered an abnormal outcome. Results: Continuous electroencephalography was recorded for a median of 57.1 hours (interquartile range 33.5-80.5h) in 47 neonates (31 males, 16 females); 29 out of 47 (62%) had electrographic seizures and 25 out of 47 (53%) had an abnormal outcome. The presence of seizures per se was not associated with abnormal outcome (p=0.126); however, the odds of an abnormal outcome increased over ninefold (odds ratio [OR] 9.56; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.43-37.67) if a neonate had a total seizure burden of more than 40 minutes (p=0.001), and eightfold (OR: 8.00; 95% CI: 2.06-31.07) if a neonate had a maximum hourly seizure burden of more than 13 minutes per hour (p=0.003). Controlling for electrographic HIE grade or treatment with hypothermia did not change the direction of the relationship between seizure burden and outcome. Interpretation: In HIE, a high electrographic seizure burden is significantly associated with abnormal outcome, independent of HIE severity or treatment with hypothermia

Mergers and Mass Accretion Rates in Galaxy Assembly: The Millennium Simulation Compared to Observations of z~2 Galaxies

Recent observations of UV-/optically selected, massive star forming galaxies at z~2 indicate that the baryonic mass assembly and star formation history is dominated by continuous rapid accretion of gas and internal secular evolution, rather than by major mergers. We use the Millennium Simulation to build new halo merger trees, and extract halo merger fractions and mass accretion rates. We find that even for halos not undergoing major mergers the mass accretion rates are plausibly sufficient to account for the high star formation rates observed in z~2 disks. On the other hand, the fraction of major mergers in the Millennium Simulation is sufficient to account for the number counts of submillimeter galaxies (SMGs), in support of observational evidence that these are major mergers. When following the fate of these two populations in the Millennium Simulation to z=0, we find that subsequent mergers are not frequent enough to convert all z~2 turbulent disks into elliptical galaxies at z=0. Similarly, mergers cannot transform the compact SMGs/red sequence galaxies at z~2 into observed massive cluster ellipticals at z=0. We argue therefore, that secular and internal evolution must play an important role in the evolution of a significant fraction of z~2 UV-/optically and submillimeter selected galaxy populations.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

The impact of a small-scale riverine obstacle on the upstream migration of Atlantic Salmon

The behaviour of returning Salmo salar (Linnaeus, 1758) approaching, and attempting to pass low-head weirs remains relatively unknown. A radio telemetry array was created at a low-head weir to enable the behaviour of S. salar (n = 120) to be observed as they approached and attempted to pass the barrier. The majority of fish successfully passed the barrier on their first or second attempt, some individuals required 11 attempts prior to successful passage occurring. Mean delay at the barrier per fish was 47.8 h (±SD 132.0 h), range 15 min to 31 days. Passage success on a fish’s initial attempt was significantly predicted by the amount of searching a fish undertook, fork length, and fat content. Fish were more likely to have a successful first passage attempt if it was smaller with a low fat content and exerted a greater effort in searching for a passage channel. Small-scale barriers cause delays and increased energy expenditure in migrating fish. Barriers may be creating an anthropogenic selection pressure for traits which enable passage success. The impact of a delay at a barrier and increased energy expenditure on reproduction and gonad development remains unknown but is likely to be negatively impacted by instream anthropogenic structures