Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics

Quantitative ultrasound bone measurements: normal values and comparison with bone mineral density by dual X-ray absorptiometry.

Normative data for qualitative ultrasound (QUS) measurements: speed of sound (SOS), broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and stiffness were established in 118 healthy women aged 20-86 years and in 42 healthy men aged 22-76 years. The relations between age, weight, height, and QUS were studied. QUS measurements were negatively correlated with age in both sexes. In women, age was accepted as first factor (R2 = 0.39 for SOS, 0.35 for BUA, and 0.45 for stiffness, P < 0.001); weight was accepted as second factor for BUA (R2 = 0.44, P < 0.001). In men, age was the only significant parameter (R2 = 0.41 for SOS, 0.39 for BUA, 0.43 for stiffness, P < 0.001). QUS measurements of the right and left feet were highly correlated unless unilateral foot pathology such as algodystrophy was present. Significant correlations were found between QUS of the calcaneus and dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of the lumbar spine (R = 0.67, P < 0.01 for SOS; R = 0.57, P < 0.02 for BUA; R = 0.65, P < 0.01 for stiffness).Comparative StudyJournal ArticleSCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe