Pricing Rainfall Based Futures Using Genetic Programming

Rainfall derivatives are in their infancy since starting trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) since 2011. Being a relatively new class of financial instruments there is no generally recognised pricing framework used within the literature. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for pricing contracts using Genetic Programming (GP). Our novel framework requires generating a risk-neutral density of our rainfall predictions generated by GP supported by Markov chain Monte Carlo and Esscher transform. Moreover, instead of having a single rainfall model for all contracts, we propose having a separate rainfall model for each contract. We compare our novel framework with and without our proposed contract-specific models for pricing against the pricing performance of the two most commonly used methods, namely Markov chain extended with rainfall prediction (MCRP), and burn analysis (BA) across contracts available on the CME. Our goal is twofold, (i) to show that by improving the predictive accuracy of the rainfall process, the accuracy of pricing also increases. (ii) contract-specific models can further improve the pricing accuracy. Results show that both of the above goals are met, as GP is capable of pricing rainfall futures contracts closer to the CME than MCRP and BA. This shows that our novel framework for using GP is successful, which is a significant step forward in pricing rainfall derivatives

Preliminary Limits on the WIMP-Nucleon Cross Section from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS)

We are conducting an experiment to search for WIMPs, or weakly-interacting massive particles, in the galactic halo using terrestrial detectors. This generic class of hypothetical particles, whose properties are similar to those predicted by extensions of the standard model of particle physics, could comprise the cold component of non-baryonic dark matter. We describe our experiment, which is based on cooled germanium and silicon detectors in a shielded low-background cryostat. The detectors achieve a high degree of background rejection through the simultaneous measurement of the energy in phonons and ionization. Using exposures on the order of one kilogram-day from initial runs of our experiment, we have achieved (preliminary) upper limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section that are comparable to much longer runs of other experiments.Comment: 5 LaTex pages, 5 eps figs, epsf.sty, espcrc2dsa2.sty. Proceedings of TAUP97, Gran Sasso, Italy, 7-11 Sep 1997, Nucl. Phys. Suppl., A. Bottino, A. di Credico and P. Monacelli (eds.). See also http://cfpa.berkeley.ed

Supernatants from lymphocytes stimulated with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin can modify the antigenicity of tumours and stimulate allogeneic T-cell responses

BACKGROUND: Reduced expression of class 1 human leucocyte antigens (HLA1) is often a mechanism by which tumours evade surveillance by the host immune system. This is often associated with an immune function that is unable to mount appropriate responses against disease, which can result in a state that favours carcinogenesis. METHODS: In the current study, we have explored the effects of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) on the cytokine output of leucocytes, which is a key determinant in generating antitumour action, and have also assessed the effect of these cytokine cocktails on HLA1 expression in solid tumour cell lines. RESULTS: BCG potently activated a broad range of leucocytes, and also enhanced the production of cytokines that were Th(1)-predominant. Supernatants from BCG-treated leucocytes significantly increased the expression of HLA1 on the surface of cancer cell lines, which correlated with increased cytolytic T-cell activity. We also showed that the increased HLA1 expression was associated with activation of intracellular signalling pathways, which was triggered by the increases in the Th(1)-cytokines interferon-γ and tumour necrosis factor-α, as counteracting their effects negated the enhancement. CONCLUSION: These studies reaffirm the role of BCG as a putative immunotherapy through their cytokine-modifying effects on leucocytes and their capacity to enhance tumour visibility

CD69 is a TGF-β/1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 target gene in monocytes

CD69 is a transmembrane lectin that can be expressed on most hematopoietic cells. In monocytes, it has been functionally linked to the 5-lipoxygenase pathway in which the leukotrienes, a class of highly potent inflammatory mediators, are produced. However, regarding CD69 gene expression and its regulatory mechanisms in monocytes, only scarce data are available. Here, we report that CD69 mRNA expression, analogous to that of 5-lipoxygenase, is induced by the physiologic stimuli transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1α,25(OH)2D3) in monocytic cells. Comparison with T- and B-cell lines showed that the effect was specific for monocytes. CD69 expression levels were increased in a concentration-dependent manner, and kinetic analysis revealed a rapid onset of mRNA expression, indicating that CD69 is a primary TGF-β/1α,25(OH)2D3 target gene. PCR analysis of different regions of the CD69 mRNA revealed that de novo transcription was initiated and proximal and distal parts were induced concomitantly. In common with 5-lipoxygenase, no activation of 0.7 kb or ~2.3 kb promoter fragments by TGF-β and 1α,25(OH)2D3 could be observed in transient reporter assays for CD69. Analysis of mRNA stability using a transcription inhibitor and a 3′UTR reporter construct showed that TGF-β and 1α,25(OH)2D3 do not influence CD69 mRNA stability. Functional knockdown of Smad3 clearly demonstrated that upregulation of CD69 mRNA, in contrast to 5-LO, depends on Smad3. Comparative studies with different inhibitors for mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPKs) revealed that MAPK signalling is involved in CD69 gene regulation, whereas 5-lipoxygenase gene expression was only partly affected. Mechanistically, we found evidence that CD69 gene upregulation depends on TAK1-mediated p38 activation. In summary, our data indicate that CD69 gene expression, conforming with 5-lipoxygenase, is regulated monocyte-specifically by the physiologic stimuli TGF-β and 1α,25(OH)2D3 on mRNA level, although different mechanisms account for the upregulation of each gene

Clinical implication of HLA class I expression in breast cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-class I molecules on tumor cells have been regarded as crucial sites where cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) can recognize tumor-specific antigens and are strongly associated with anti-tumor activity. However, the clinical impact of HLA class I expression in breast cancer has not been clarified.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 212 breast cancer patients who received curative surgery from 1993 to 2003 were enrolled in the current study. HLA class I expression was examined immunohistochemically using an anti-HLA class I monoclonal antibody. The correlation between HLA class I positivity and clinical factors was analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The downregulation of HLA class I expression in breast cancer was observed in 69 patients (32.5%). HLA class I downregulation was significantly associated with nodal involvement (p < 0.05), TNM stage (p < 0.05), lymphatic invasion (p < 0.01), and venous invasion (p < 0.05). Patients with preserved HLA class I had significantly better disease-free interval (DFI) than those with loss of HLA class I (p < 0.05). However, in multivariable analysis, HLA class I was not selected as one of the independent prognostic factors of disease-free interval.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The examination of HLA class I expression is useful for the prediction of tumor progression and recurrent risk of breast cancer via the antitumor immune system.</p

A Micro-Thermal Sensor for Focal Therapy Applications

There is an urgent need for sensors deployed during focal therapies to inform treatment planning and in vivo monitoring in thin tissues. Specifically, the measurement of thermal properties, cooling surface contact, tissue thickness, blood flow and phase change with mm to sub mm accuracy are needed. As a proof of principle, we demonstrate that a micro-thermal sensor based on the supported “3ω� technique can achieve this in vitro under idealized conditions in 0.5 to 2 mm thick tissues relevant to cryoablation of the pulmonary vein (PV). To begin with “3ω� sensors were microfabricated onto flat glass as an idealization of a focal probe surface. The sensor was then used to make new measurements of ‘k’ (W/m.K) of porcine PV, esophagus, and phrenic nerve, all needed for PV cryoabalation treatment planning. Further, by modifying the sensor use from traditional to dynamic mode new measurements related to tissue vs. fluid (i.e. water) contact, fluid flow conditions, tissue thickness, and phase change were made. In summary, the in vitro idealized system data presented is promising and warrants future work to integrate and test supported “3ω� sensors on in vivo deployed focal therapy probe surfaces (i.e. balloons or catheters)

Genome-Wide Association Study of Blood Pressure Traits by Hispanic/Latino Background: the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Hypertension prevalence varies between ethnic groups, possibly due to differences in genetic, environmental, and cultural determinants. Hispanic/Latino Americans are a diverse and understudied population. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of blood pressure (BP) traits in 12,278 participants from the Hispanics Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL). In the discovery phase we identified eight previously unreported BP loci. In the replication stage, we tested these loci in the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study of admixed Southern Brazilians, the COGENT-BP study of African descent, women of European descent from the Women Health Initiative (WHI), and a sample of European descent from the UK Biobank. No loci met the Bonferroni-adjusted level of statistical significance (0.0024). Two loci had marginal evidence of replication: rs78701042 (NGF) with diastolic BP (P = 0.008 in the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study), and rs7315692 (SLC5A8) with systolic BP (P = 0.007 in European ancestry replication). We investigated whether previously reported loci associated with BP in studies of European, African, and Asian ancestry generalize to Hispanics/Latinos. Overall, 26% of the known associations in studies of individuals of European and Chinese ancestries generalized, while only a single association previously discovered in a people of African descent generalized

Double Diffraction Dissociation at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider

We present results from a measurement of double diffraction dissociation in $\bar pp$ collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The production cross section for events with a central pseudorapidity gap of width $\Delta\eta^0>3$ (overlapping $\eta=0$) is found to be $4.43\pm 0.02{(stat)}{\pm 1.18}{(syst) mb}$ [$3.42\pm 0.01{(stat)}{\pm 1.09}{(syst) mb}$] at $\sqrt{s}=1800$ [630] GeV. Our results are compared with previous measurements and with predictions based on Regge theory and factorization.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, using RevTeX. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure