Modeling solutions to Tanzania's physician workforce challenge.

BACKGROUND:There is a great need for physicians in Tanzania. In 2012, there were approximately 0.31 physicians per 10,000 individuals nationwide, with a lower ratio in the rural areas, where the majority of the population resides. In response, universities across Tanzania have greatly increased the enrollment of medical students. Yet evidence suggests high attrition of medical graduates to other professions and emigration from rural areas where they are most needed. OBJECTIVE:To estimate the future number of physicians practicing in Tanzania and the potential impact of interventions to improve retention, we built a model that tracks medical students from enrollment through clinical practice, from 1990 to 2025. DESIGN:We designed a Markov process with 92 potential states capturing the movement of 25,000 medical students and physicians from medical training through employment. Work possibilities included clinical practice (divided into rural or urban, public or private), non-clinical work, and emigration. We populated and calibrated the model using a national 2005/2006 physician mapping survey, as well as graduation records, graduate tracking surveys, and other available data. RESULTS:The model projects massive losses to clinical practice between 2016 and 2025, especially in rural areas. Approximately 56% of all medical school students enrolled between 2011 and 2020 will not be practicing medicine in Tanzania in 2025. Even with these losses, the model forecasts an increase in the physician-to-population ratio to 1.4 per 10,000 by 2025. Increasing the absorption of recent graduates into the public sector and/or developing a rural training track would ameliorate physician attrition in the most underserved areas. CONCLUSIONS:Tanzania is making significant investments in the training of physicians. Without linking these doctors to employment and ensuring their retention, the majority of this investment in medical education will be jeopardized

Nucleation of nitric acid hydrates in polar stratospheric clouds by meteoric material

Heterogeneous nucleation of crystalline nitric acid hydrates in polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) enhances ozone depletion. However, the identity and mode of action of the particles responsible for nucleation remains unknown. It has been suggested that meteoric material may trigger nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT, or other nitric acid phases), but this has never been quantitatively demonstrated in the laboratory. Meteoric material is present in two forms in the stratosphere: smoke that results from the ablation and re-condensation of vapours, and fragments that result from the break-up of meteoroids entering the atmosphere. Here we show that analogues of both materials have a capacity to nucleate nitric acid hydrates. In combination with estimates from a global model of the amount of meteoric smoke and fragments in the polar stratosphere we show that meteoric material probably accounts for NAT observations in early season polar stratospheric clouds in the absence of water ice

Isolation of polymorphic microsatellites in the stemless thistle (Cirsium acaule) and their utility in other Cirsium species

The genus Cirsium includes species with both widespread and restricted geographical distributions, several of which are serious weeds. Nine polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated from the stemless thistle Cirsium acaule. Eight were polymorphic in C. acaule, six in C. arvense and seven in C. heterophyllum. One locus monomorphic in C. acaule showed polymorphism in C. heterophyllum. The mean number of alleles per locus was 4.1 in C. acaule, 6.2 in C. arvense and 2.9 in C. heterophyllum. These nine loci were also amplified in C. eriophorum and C. vulgare, suggesting that these markers may be of use throughout the genus

Aortic valve replacement in octogenarians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background and Aims</p> <p>As our population ages and life expectancy increases the number of people aged over 80 and more referred for cardiac surgery is growing. This study sought to identify the outcome of aortic valve replacement (AVR) in octogenarians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>68 patients aged 80 years or more underwent AVR at the Freeman Hospital, between April 2001 and April 2004. A retrospective review of the notes and outcomes from the patients' GP and the NHS strategic tracking service was performed. 54% (37) underwent isolated AVR whilst 46% (31) underwent combined AVR and CABG.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Follow up was 100% complete. The mean age was 83.1 ± s.d. 2.9 years, a mean gradient of 83 ± s.d. 31 mmHg and mean AVA of 0.56 cm². The mean additive EuroSCORE was 8.6 ± s.d. 1.2, the logistic EuroSCORE mean 12.0 ± s.d. 5.9. In hospital 30 day mortality was 13 %. Survival was 80% at 1 year and 78% at 2 years. Median follow up was for 712 days. Stepwise logistic regression identified chronic obstructive airways disease as an independent predictor of mortality (p < 0.05). Survival was not adversely affected by the addition of coronary artery bypass grafts to aortic valve replacement, the presence of peripheral vascular disease, hypertension or diabetes. In this study duration of cross clamp or bypass time were not found to reach significance as independent predictors of mortality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study demonstrates that the operative mortality for AVR in the over eighties is good, whilst the mid to long term outcome is excellent There is a very low attrition rate with those undergoing the procedure living as long than their age matched population. This study confirms AVR is a safe, acceptable treatment for octogenarians with excellent mid term outcomes.</p

Evo-devo of human adolescence: beyond disease models of early puberty

Despite substantial heritability in pubertal development, much variation remains to be explained, leaving room for the influence of environmental factors to adjust its phenotypic trajectory in the service of fitness goals. Utilizing evolutionary development biology (evo-devo), we examine adolescence as an evolutionary life-history stage in its developmental context. We show that the transition from the preceding stage of juvenility entails adaptive plasticity in response to energy resources, other environmental cues, social needs of adolescence and maturation toward youth and adulthood. Using the evolutionary theory of socialization, we show that familial psychosocial stress fosters a fast life history and reproductive strategy rather than early maturation being just a risk factor for aggression and delinquency. Here we explore implications of an evolutionary-developmental-endocrinological-anthropological framework for theory building, while illuminating new directions for research

Islet isolation assessment in man and large animals

Recent progress in islet isolation from the pancreas of large mammals including man, accentuated the need for the development of precise and reproducible techniques to assess islet yield. In this report both quantitative and qualitative criteria for islet isolation assessment were discussed, the main topics being the determination of number, volume, purity, morphologic integrity and in vitro and in vivo function tests of the final islet preparations. It has been recommended that dithizone should be used as a specific stain for immediate detection of islet tissue making it possible to estimate both the total number of islets (dividing them into classes of 50 μ diameter range increments) and the purity of the final preparation. Appropriate morphological assessment should include confirmation of islet identification, assessment of the morphological integrity and of the purity of the islet preparation. The use of fluorometric inclusion and exclusion dyes together have been suggested as a viability assay to simultaneously quantitate the proportion of cells that are intact or damaged. Perifusion of islets with glucose provides a dynamic profile of glucose-mediated insulin release and of the ability of the cells to down regulate insulin secretion after the glycemic challenge is interrupted. Although perifusion data provides a useful guide to islet viability the quantity and kinetics of insulin release do not necessarily predict islet performance after implantation. Therefore, the ultimate test of islet viability is their function after transplantation into a diabetic recipient. For this reason, in vivo models of transplantation of an aliquot of the final islet preparation into diabetic nude (athymic) rodents have been suggested. We hope that these general guidelines will be of assistance to standardize the assessment of islet isolations, making it possible to better interpret and compare procedures from different centers. © 1990 Casa Editrice il Ponte