On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R₀), and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R₀was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47) for the first phase (April 1 to May 4) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54) for the second phase (May 4 to June 19). Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R₀= 1.35 (1.20-1.49) and a single turning point of June 11.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R₀were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1) in Canada.</p

Age groups and spread of influenza: implications for vaccination strategy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The unpredictable nature of the potentially devastating impact of 2009 pH1N1 influenza pandemic highlights the need for pandemic preparedness planning, where modeling studies could be most useful for simulations of possible future scenarios.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A compartmental model with pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza infections is proposed which incorporates age groups as well as intervention measures such as age-specific vaccination, in order to study spread of influenza in a community.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We derive the basic reproduction number and other effective reproduction numbers under various intervention measures. For illustration, we make use of the Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) mortality data and vaccination data of the very young (age 0-2) and the very old (age >64) during 2004-2005 Taiwan winter influenza season to fit our model and to compute the relevant reproduction numbers. The reproduction number for this winter flu season is estimated to be slightly above one (~1.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Comparatively large errors in fitting the P&I mortality data of the elderly (>64) were observed shortly after winter school closings in January, which may indicate the impact of younger, more active age groups transmitting influenza to other age groups outside of the school settings; in particular, to the elderly in the households. Pre-symptomatic infections seemed to have little effect on the model fit, while asymptomatic infection by asymptomatic infectives has a more pronounced impact on the model fit for the elderly mortality, perhaps indicating a larger role in disease transmission by asymptomatic infection. Simulations indicate that the impact of vaccination on the disease incidence might not be fully revealed in the change (or the lack thereof) in the effective reproduction number with interventions, but could still be substantial. The estimated per contact transmission probability for susceptible elderly is significantly higher than that of any other age group, perhaps highlighting the vulnerability of the elderly due to close contacts with their caretakers from other age groups. The relative impact of targeting the very young and the very old for vaccination was weakened by their relative inactivity, thus giving evidence of the lack of impact of vaccinating these two groups on the overall transmissibility of the disease in the community. This further underscores the need for morbidity-based strategy to prevent elderly mortality.</p

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

Toxic risk of stereotactic body radiotherapy and concurrent helical tomotherapy followed by erlotinib for non-small-cell lung cancer treatment - case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) applied by helical tomotherapy (HT) is feasible for lung cancer in clinical. Using SBRT concurrently with erlotinib for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not reported previously.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>A 77-year-old man with stage III NSCLC, received erlotinib 150 mg/day, combined with image-guided SBRT via HT. A total tumor dose of 54 Gy/9 fractions was delivered to the tumor bed. The tumor responded dramatically and the combined regimen was well tolerated. After concurrent erlotinib-SBRT, erlotinib was continued as maintenance therapy. The patient developed dyspnea three months after the combined therapy and radiation pneumonitis with interstitial lung disease was suspected.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Combination SBRT, HT, and erlotinib therapy provided effective anti-tumor results. Nonetheless, the potential risks of enhanced adverse effects between radiation and erlotinib should be monitored closely, especially when SBRT is part of the regimen.</p

Human factors for dementia: Evidence based design

Designing care environments for people living with dementia is a complex challenge as the key stakeholder may have difficulty communicating their capabilities, limitations and preferences. This paper describes the use of evidence-based design personas in a multi-disciplinary team with architects and chartered human factors specialists. Four individual personas (Alison, Barry, Christine and David) and a couple persona (Chris and Sally) were used to bring the voices of the people living with different stages of dementia to the design process. Their changing/fluctuating symptoms were communicated in two formats (wheel and matrix) within an inclusive design process to adapt a Victorian semi-detached house. The demonstrator house presents evidence based design, adaptation and support solutions to support people living with dementia to age well at home

Building social capital through breastfeeding peer support: Insights from an evaluation of a voluntary breastfeeding peer support service in North-West England

Background: Peer support is reported to be a key method to help build social capital in communities. To date there are no studies that describe how this can be achieved through a breastfeeding peer support service. In this paper we present findings from an evaluation of a voluntary model of breastfeeding peer support in North-West England to describe how the service was operationalized and embedded into the community. This study was undertaken from May, 2012 to May, 2013. Methods: Interviews (group or individual) were held with 87 participants: 24 breastfeeding women, 13 peer supporters and 50 health and community professionals. The data contained within 23 monthly monitoring reports (January, 2011 to February 2013) compiled by the voluntary peer support service were also extracted and analysed. Results: Thematic analysis was undertaken using social capital concepts as a theoretical lens. Key findings were identified to resonate with ’bonding’, ‘bridging’ and ‘linking’ forms of social capital. These insights illuminate how the peer support service facilitates ‘bonds’ with its members, and within and between women who access the service; how the service ‘bridges’ with individuals from different interests and backgrounds, and how ‘links’ were forged with those in authority to gain access and reach to women and to promote a breastfeeding culture. Some of the tensions highlighted within the social capital literature were also identified. Conclusions: Horizontal and vertical relationships forged between the peer support service and community members enabled peer support to be embedded into care pathways, helped to promote positive attitudes to breastfeeding and to disseminate knowledge and maximise reach for breastfeeding support across the community. Further effort to engage with those of different ethnic backgrounds and to resolve tensions between peer supporters and health professionals is warranted

ARPES: A probe of electronic correlations

Angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) is one of the most direct methods of studying the electronic structure of solids. By measuring the kinetic energy and angular distribution of the electrons photoemitted from a sample illuminated with sufficiently high-energy radiation, one can gain information on both the energy and momentum of the electrons propagating inside a material. This is of vital importance in elucidating the connection between electronic, magnetic, and chemical structure of solids, in particular for those complex systems which cannot be appropriately described within the independent-particle picture. Among the various classes of complex systems, of great interest are the transition metal oxides, which have been at the center stage in condensed matter physics for the last four decades. Following a general introduction to the topic, we will lay the theoretical basis needed to understand the pivotal role of ARPES in the study of such systems. After a brief overview on the state-of-the-art capabilities of the technique, we will review some of the most interesting and relevant case studies of the novel physics revealed by ARPES in 3d-, 4d- and 5d-based oxides.Comment: Chapter to appear in "Strongly Correlated Systems: Experimental Techniques", edited by A. Avella and F. Mancini, Springer Series in Solid-State Sciences (2013). A high-resolution version can be found at: http://www.phas.ubc.ca/~quantmat/ARPES/PUBLICATIONS/Reviews/ARPES_Springer.pdf. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:cond-mat/0307085, arXiv:cond-mat/020850

Estrogen-Dependent Gene Expression in the Mouse Ovary

Estrogen (E) plays a pivotal role in regulating the female reproductive system, particularly the ovary. However, the number and type of ovarian genes influenced by estrogen remain to be fully elucidated. In this study, we have utilized wild-type (WT) and aromatase knockout (ArKO; estrogen free) mouse ovaries as an in vivo model to profile estrogen dependent genes. RNA from each individual ovary (n = 3) was analyzed by a microarray-based screen using Illumina Sentrix Mouse WG-6 BeadChip (45,281 transcripts). Comparative analysis (GeneSpring) showed differential expression profiles of 450 genes influenced by E, with 291 genes up-regulated and 159 down-regulated by 2-fold or greater in the ArKO ovary compared to WT. Genes previously reported to be E regulated in ArKO ovaries were confirmed, in addition to novel genes not previously reported to be expressed or regulated by E in the ovary. Of genes involved in 5 diverse functional processes (hormonal processes, reproduction, sex differentiation and determination, apoptosis and cellular processes) 78 had estrogen-responsive elements (ERE). These analyses define the transcriptome regulated by E in the mouse ovary. Further analysis and investigation will increase our knowledge pertaining to how E influences follicular development and other ovarian functions