Detection of hydrogeochemical seismic precursors by a statistical learning model

Abstract. The problem of detecting the occurrence of an earthquake precursor is faced in the general framework of the statistical learning theory. The aim of this work is both to build models able to detect seismic precursors from time series of different geochemical signals and to provide an estimate of number of false positives. The model we used is k-Nearest-Neighbor classifier for discriminating "no-disturbed signal", "seismic precursor" and "co-post seismic precursor" in time series relative to thirteen different hydrogeochemical parameters collected in water samples from a natural spring in Kamchachta (Russia) peninsula. The measurements collected are ion content (Na, Cl, Ca, HCO3, H3BO3), parameters (pH, Q, T) and gases (N2, CO2, CH4, O2, Ag). The classification error is measured by Leave-K-Out-Cross-Validation procedure. Our study shows that the most discriminative ions for detecting seismic precursors are Cl and Na having an error rates of 15%. Moreover, the most discriminative parameters and gases are Q and CH4 respectively, with error rate of 21%. The ions result the most informative hydrogeochemicals for detecting seismic precursors due to the peculiarities of the mechanisms involved in earthquake preparation. Finally we show that the information collected some month before the event under analysis are necessary to improve the classification accuracy.</p

The European VLF/LF radio network: current status

For several years researches about correlation between seismicity and disturbances in radio broadcasting are being carried out: in particular, the Japanese Pacific VLF radio network and the European VLF–LF radio network have been developed during the last years. The European network has been developed starting from two LF receivers located in central Italy in 1996. Up to now, 11 receivers of a new type, able to sample the VLF and LF intensity of ten radio signals, are being into operation in different European countries. The daily updating of data is effective and the data bank is located at the Department of Physics of the University of Bari (Italy) which is the central node of the network. In order to discover anomalies, the software able to carry out automatically a daily data analysis by the Wavelet spectra method has been planned and realized. At the moment, the software operates on four signals (two LF and two VLF) collected by one of the receiver located in Italy. If the anomaly is particularly strong a warning system gives an advise on the work station into operation in the central node of the Network. In any case, before assuming an anomaly as a seismic anomaly, geomagnetic and meteorological data must be checked as well as any possible instrumental malfunction. At present these controls are carried out only discontinuously by the researchers of the Bari Team

Analysis of demersal assemblages off the Tuscany and Latium coasts (north-western Mediterranean)

A four-year time series (1994-1997) of groundfish trawl surveys performed within the European Union Project "MEDITS" (Mediterranean International Trawl Surveys), was analysed to identify and describe the fish assemblages along the continental shelf and slope of Tuscany and Latium (Italy), in the north-western Mediterranean. Cluster analysis was used to group samples with similar species composition in terms of abundance, biomass and frequency of occurrence. Results allowed the identification of four to five broad assemblages along the depth gradient: a strictly coastal group (< 50 m depth), two groups in the upper and lower part of the continental shelf (essentially 50-200 m), an epibathyal group (200450 m) and a group derived from hauls made at depths greater than 450 in. Each assemblage corresponded to a faunistic association with relatively homogeneous and persistent species composition, biomass and density indices

An overview on preseismic anomalies in LF radio signals revealed in Italy by wavelet analysis

Since 1996, the electric field strength of the two broadcasting stations MCO (f=216 kHz, southeast France) and CZE (f=270 kHz, Czech Republic) has been sampled every ten minutes by a receiver (AS) located in central Italy. Here, we review the results obtained by a detailed analysis applied to the data recorded from February 1996 up to December 2004. At first, the daytime and nighttime data were extracted and then, in the daytime data, the data collected in winter were separated from those collected in summer. On the second step the wavelet transform was applied. The results of this analysis are radio anomalies detected as earthquake precursors both for MCO and CZE data. In particular, regarding the MCO data, the main result was the appearance of a very clear anomaly during May-August 1998, at daytime and at nighttime. Such an anomaly can be considered as a precursor of a seismic sequence started on August 15, 1998 with 17 earthquakes (M=2.2-4.6) on the Reatini mountains, a seismogenic zone located 30 km far from the AS receiver along the path MCO-AS. As concerns with the CZE data, the first result was obtained from the summer daytime data and it was the appearance of a very clear anomaly during August-September 1997, that can be considered a precursor of the two earthquakes with magnitude M=5.6 and M=5.9 that occurred on September 26 in the Umbria-Marche region (Central Italy). The second result was the appearance of an anomaly during February-March 1998, at daytime and at nighttime, that can be related to the preparatory phase of the strong (M=5.1-6.0) Slovenia seismic sequence that occurred in a zone lying in the middle of the CZE-AS path

foF2 seismo-ionospheric effect analysis: actual data and numerical simulations

Abstract. On the background of seasonal and helio-geomagnetic disturbances, disturbances of the ionization density near noon connected to earthquakes are investigated. The study is performed for some tens of earthquakes with magnitudes M>5 and depths h<70 km, which occur at distances from the vertical sounding stations "Tokyo", "Akita", and "Yamagawa" not larger than R=exp(M)+150 km. The analysis is performed using data registered by the three sounding stations every hour during 30 years. Especially methods of the statistical analysis are applied to search for regularities in the lithospheric-ionospheric links before and after earthquakes. The growth of the mean ionization density N at the F-layer electron density maximum Fof2 five-three days before earthquakes, and the decrease of N approaching the eruption and during a few days after the earthquake is investigated in dependence on both the magnitude of the earthquake M and the ionization density N near the F-layer maximum. It is found that some days before earthquakes the decrease of the ionization density ΔN is proportional to the values of M and N. After the earthquakes, ΔN depends much weaker on the magnitude M, and it is not influenced by the ionization density N. The variations of the ionization density three days before earthquakes do not depend on N and M (within the same order of approximation)

Pressure effect in the X-ray intrinsic position resolution in noble gases and mixtures

A study of the gas pressure effect in the position resolution of an interacting X- or gamma-ray photon in a gas medium is performed. The intrinsic position resolution for pure noble gases (Argon and Xenon) and their mixtures with CO2 and CH4 were calculated for several gas pressures (1-10bar) and for photon energies between 5.4 and 60.0 keV, being possible to establish a linear match between the intrinsic position resolution and the inverse of the gas pressure in that energy range. In order to evaluate the quality of the method here described, a comparison between the available experimental data and the calculated one in this work, is done and discussed. In the majority of the cases, a strong agreement is observed

Charge Transfer and Charge Broadening of GEM Structures in High Magnetic Fields

We report on measurements of charge transfer in GEM structures in high magnetic fields. These were performed in the framework of the R&D work for a Time Projection Chamber at a future Linear Collider. A small test chamber has been installed into the aperture of a superconducting magnet with the GEM structures mounted perpendicular to the B field direction. The charge transfer is derived from the electrical currents monitored during irradiation with an ${}^{55}$Fe source. No severe loss of primary ionisation charge is observed, but an improved ion feedback suppression is achieved for high magnetic fields. Additionally, the width of the charge cloud released by individual ${}^{55}$Fe photons is measured using a finely segmented strip readout after the triple GEM structure. Charge widths between 0.3 and 0.5 mm RMS are observed, which originate from the charge broadening inside the GEM readout. This charge broadening is only partly suppressed at high magnetic fields.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

A possible preseismic anomaly in the ground wave of a radio broadcasting (216 kHz) during July-August 1998 (Italy)

International audienceOn February 1996, a receiver able to measure the electric field strength of LF radio broadcastings, with a sampling frequency of ten minutes, was put into operation in a site (AS) located in central Italy. One of the broadcasting stations selected is MCO (f=216 kHz), located in southeast France, 518 km far from the receiver. The MCO data collected since February 1996 up to September 2004 were examined and, at first, the night time data and the day time data (in winter and summer) were separated. Then, the wavelet analysis on the night and day time data was applied. The main result of the analysis was the appearance of a very clear anomaly during summer (July?August) 1998, at day time and at night time. The anomaly is a strong exaltation of the signal components with period in the 25?40 days range. Theoretical calculations of electric field strength were made and the only way to justify this anomaly seems to be the occurrence of an increase of the ground wave propagation mode of the radio signal. Such an increase could have been produced by an increase of the ground conductivity and by modifications of some parameter of the troposphere, mainly the refractive index. On 15 August 1998 a seismic sequence started with 17 earthquakes (M=2.2?4.6) on the Reatini mountains, a seismogenic zone located 30 km far from the AS receiver along the path MCO-AS. In this paper, the possibility that the previous radio anomaly can be a precursor of this seismic sequence is proposed. </p