A predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged intensive care unit length of stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay account for a disproportionate amount of resource use. Early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged length of stay can lead to quality enhancements that reduce ICU stay. This study developed and validated a model that identifies patients at risk for a prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343,555 admissions to 83 ICUs in 31 U.S. hospitals from 2002-2007. We examined the distribution of ICU length of stay to identify a threshold where clinicians might be concerned about a prolonged stay; this resulted in choosing a 5-day cut-point. From patients remaining in the ICU on day 5 we developed a multivariable regression model that predicted remaining ICU stay. Predictor variables included information gathered at admission, day 1, and ICU day 5. Data from 12,640 admissions during 2002-2005 were used to develop the model, and the remaining 12,904 admissions to internally validate the model. Finally, we used data on 11,903 admissions during 2006-2007 to externally validate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variables that had the greatest impact on remaining ICU length of stay were those measured on day 5, not at admission or during day 1. Mechanical ventilation, PaO₂: FiO₂ratio, other physiologic components, and sedation on day 5 accounted for 81.6% of the variation in predicted remaining ICU stay. In the external validation set observed ICU stay was 11.99 days and predicted total ICU stay (5 days + day 5 predicted remaining stay) was 11.62 days, a difference of 8.7 hours. For the same patients, the difference between mean observed and mean predicted ICU stay using the APACHE day 1 model was 149.3 hours. The new model's r²was 20.2% across individuals and 44.3% across units.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A model that uses patient data from ICU days 1 and 5 accurately predicts a prolonged ICU stay. These predictions are more accurate than those based on ICU day 1 data alone. The model can be used to benchmark ICU performance and to alert physicians to explore care alternatives aimed at reducing ICU stay.</p

When does poor subjective financial position hurt the elderly? Testing the interaction with educational attainment using a national representative longitudinal survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies have demonstrated that perceived financial status has a significant impact on health status among the elderly. However, little is known about whether such a subjective perception interacts with objective socioeconomic status (SES) measures such as education that affect the individual's health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research used data from the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Middle Age and Elderly in Taiwan (SHLS) conducted by the Bureau of Health Promotion, Department of Health in Taiwan. Waves 1996, 1999 and 2003 were used. The sample consisted of 2,387 elderly persons. The interactive effects of self-rated satisfaction with financial position and educational attainment were estimated. Self-rated health (SRH), depressive symptom (measured by CES-D) and mortality were used to measure health outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant interaction effect was found for depressive symptoms. Among those who were dissatisfied with their financial position, those who were illiterate had an odds ratio (OR) of 8.3 (95% CI 4.9 to 14.0) for having depressive symptoms compared with those who were very satisfied with their financial position. The corresponding OR for those with college or above was only 2.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 7.3). No significant interaction effect was found for SRH and mortality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although poor financial satisfaction was found to be related to poorer health, the strongest association for this effect was observed among those with low educational attainment, and this is especially true for depressive symptoms. Subjective financial status among the elderly should be explored in conjunction with traditional measures of SES.</p

Survivors of intensive care with type 2 diabetes and the effect of shared care follow-up clinics: study protocol for the SWEET-AS randomised controlled feasibility study

Published online: 13 October 2016Background: Many patients who survive the intensive care unit (ICU) experience long-term complications such as peripheral neuropathy and nephropathy which represent a major source of morbidity and affect quality of life adversely. Similar pathophysiological processes occur frequently in ambulant patients with diabetes mellitus who have never been critically ill. Some 25 % of all adult ICU patients have diabetes, and it is plausible that ICU survivors with co-existing diabetes are at heightened risk of sequelae from their critical illness. ICU follow-up clinics are being progressively implemented based on the concept that interventions provided in these clinics will alleviate the burdens of survivorship. However, there is only limited information about their outcomes. The few existing studies have utilised the expertise of healthcare professionals primarily trained in intensive care and evaluated heterogenous cohorts. A shared care model with an intensivist- and diabetologist-led clinic for ICU survivors with type 2 diabetes represents a novel targeted approach that has not been evaluated previously. Prior to undertaking any definitive study, it is essential to establish the feasibility of this intervention. Methods: This will be a prospective, randomised, parallel, open-label feasibility study. Eligible patients will be approached before ICU discharge and randomised to the intervention (attending a shared care follow-up clinic 1 month after hospital discharge) or standard care. At each clinic visit, patients will be assessed independently by both an intensivist and a diabetologist who will provide screening and targeted interventions. Six months after discharge, all patients will be assessed by blinded assessors for glycated haemoglobin, peripheral neuropathy, cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy, nephropathy, quality of life, frailty, employment and healthcare utilisation. The primary outcome of this study will be the recruitment and retention at 6 months of all eligible patients. Discussion: This study will provide preliminary data about the potential effects of critical illness on chronic glucose metabolism, the prevalence of microvascular complications, and the impact on healthcare utilisation and quality of life in intensive care survivors with type 2 diabetes. If feasibility is established and point estimates are indicative of benefit, funding will be sought for a larger, multi-centre study. Trial registration: ANZCTR ACTRN12616000206426Yasmine Ali Abdelhamid, Liza Phillips, Michael Horowitz and Adam Dean

Pre-Fibrillar α-Synuclein Mutants Cause Parkinson's Disease-Like Non-Motor Symptoms in Drosophila

Parkinson's disease (PD) is linked to the formation of insoluble fibrillar aggregates of the presynaptic protein α-Synuclein (αS) in neurons. The appearance of such aggregates coincides with severe motor deficits in human patients. These deficits are often preceded by non-motor symptoms such as sleep-related problems in the patients. PD-like motor deficits can be recapitulated in model organisms such as Drosophila melanogaster when αS is pan-neurally expressed. Interestingly, both these deficits are more severe when αS mutants with reduced aggregation properties are expressed in flies. This indicates that that αS aggregation is not the primary cause of the PD-like motor symptoms. Here we describe a model for PD in Drosophila which utilizes the targeted expression of αS mutants in a subset of dopadecarboxylase expressing serotonergic and dopaminergic (DA) neurons. Our results show that targeted expression of pre-fibrillar αS mutants not only recapitulates PD-like motor symptoms but also the preceding non-motor symptoms such as an abnormal sleep-like behavior, altered locomotor activity and abnormal circadian periodicity. Further, the results suggest that the observed non-motor symptoms in flies are caused by an early impairment of neuronal functions rather than by the loss of neurons due to cell death

The effect of acetaminophen (four grams a day for three consecutive days) on hepatic tests in alcoholic patients – a multicenter randomized study

Background: Hepatic failure has been associated with reported therapeutic use of acetaminophen by alcoholic patients. The highest risk period for alcoholic patients is immediately after discontinuation of alcohol intake. This period exhibits the largest increase in CYP2E1 induction and lowest glutathione levels. Our hypothesis was that common liver tests would be unaffected by administration of the maximum recommended daily dosage of acetaminophen for 3 consecutive days to newly-abstinent alcoholic subjects. Methods: Adult alcoholic subjects entering two alcohol detoxification centers were enrolled in a prospective double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Subjects were randomized to acetaminophen, 4 g/day, or placebo for 3 consecutive days. The study had 95% probability of detecting a 15 IU/L difference in serum ALT. Results: A total of 443 subjects were enrolled: 308 (258 completed) received acetaminophen and 135 subjects (114 completed) received placebo. Study groups did not differ in demographics, alcohol consumption, nutritional status or baseline laboratory assessments. The peak mean ALT activity was 57 [plus or minus] 45 IU/L and 55 [plus or minus] 48 IU/L in the acetaminophen and placebo groups, respectively. Subgroup analyses for subjects presenting with an elevated ALT, subjects fulfilling a diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis and subjects attaining a peak ALT greater than 200 IU/L showed no statistical difference between the acetaminophen and control groups. The one participant developing an increased international normalized ratio was in the placebo group. Conclusion: Alcoholic patients treated with the maximum recommended daily dose of acetaminophen for 3 consecutive days did not develop increases in serum transaminase or other measures of liver injury. Treatment of pain or fever for 3 days with acetaminophen appears safe in newly-abstinent alcoholic patients, such as those presenting for acute medical care.Funding for this study was provided by McNeil Consumer Healthcare to the Denver Health Authority, Denver, Colorado

Potential health risks of complementary alternative medicines in cancer patients

Many cancer patients use complementary alternative medicines (CAMs) but may not be aware of the potential risks. There are no studies quantifying such risks, but there is some evidence of patient risk from case reports in the literature. A cross-sectional survey of patients attending the outpatient department at a specialist cancer centre was carried out to establish a pattern of herbal remedy or supplement use and to identify potential adverse side effects or drug interactions with conventional medicines. If potential risks were identified, a health warning was issued by a pharmacist. A total of 318 patients participated in the study. Of these, 164 (51.6%) took CAMs, and 133 different combinations were recorded. Of these, 10.4% only took herbal remedies, 42.1% only supplements and 47.6% a combination of both. In all, 18 (11.0%) reported supplements in higher than recommended doses. Health warnings were issued to 20 (12.2%) patients. Most warnings concerned echinacea in patients with lymphoma. Further warnings were issued for cod liver/fish oil, evening primrose oil, gingko, garlic, ginseng, kava kava and beta-carotene. In conclusion, medical practitioners need to be able to identify the potential risks of CAMs. Equally, patients should be encouraged to disclose their use. Also, more research is needed to quantify the actual health risks

Psychosis Endophenotypes:A Gene-Set-Specific Polygenic Risk Score Analysis

Background and Hypothesis:Endophenotypes can help to bridge the gap between psychosis and its genetic predispositions, but their underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. This study aims to identify biological mechanisms that are relevant to the endophenotypes for psychosis, by partitioning polygenic risk scores into specific gene sets and testing their associations with endophenotypes.Study Design:We computed polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder restricted to brain-related gene sets retrieved from public databases and previous publications. Three hundred and seventy-eight gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores were generated for 4506 participants. Seven endophenotypes were also measured in the sample. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted to test associations between each endophenotype and each gene-set-specific polygenic risk score.Study Results:After correction for multiple testing, we found that a reduced P300 amplitude was associated with a higher schizophrenia polygenic risk score of the forebrain regionalization gene set (mean difference per SD increase in the polygenic risk score: −1.15 µV; 95% CI: −1.70 to −0.59 µV; P = 6 × 10−5). The schizophrenia polygenic risk score of forebrain regionalization also explained more variance of the P300 amplitude (R2 = 0.032) than other polygenic risk scores, including the genome-wide polygenic risk scores.Conclusions:Our finding on reduced P300 amplitudes suggests that certain genetic variants alter early brain development thereby increasing schizophrenia risk years later. Gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores are a useful tool to elucidate biological mechanisms of psychosis and endophenotypes, offering leads for experimental validation in cellular and animal models

The Role of the Multiple Banded Antigen of Ureaplasma parvum in Intra-Amniotic Infection: Major Virulence Factor or Decoy?

The multiple banded antigen (MBA) is a predicted virulence factor of Ureaplasma species. Antigenic variation of the MBA is a potential mechanism by which ureaplasmas avoid immune recognition and cause chronic infections of the upper genital tract of pregnant women. We tested whether the MBA is involved in the pathogenesis of intra-amniotic infection and chorioamnionitis by injecting virulent or avirulent-derived ureaplasma clones (expressing single MBA variants) into the amniotic fluid of pregnant sheep. At 55 days of gestation pregnant ewes (n = 20) received intra-amniotic injections of virulent-derived or avirulent-derived U. parvum serovar 6 strains (2×104 CFU), or 10B medium (n = 5). Amniotic fluid was collected every two weeks post-infection and fetal tissues were collected at the time of surgical delivery of the fetus (140 days of gestation). Whilst chronic colonisation was established in the amniotic fluid of animals infected with avirulent-derived and virulent-derived ureaplasmas, the severity of chorioamnionitis and fetal inflammation was not different between these groups (p>0.05). MBA size variants (32–170 kDa) were generated in vivo in amniotic fluid samples from both the avirulent and virulent groups, whereas in vitro antibody selection experiments led to the emergence of MBA-negative escape variants in both strains. Anti-ureaplasma IgG antibodies were detected in the maternal serum of animals from the avirulent (40%) and virulent (55%) groups, and these antibodies correlated with increased IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8 expression in chorioamnion tissue (p<0.05). We demonstrate that ureaplasmas are capable of MBA phase variation in vitro; however, ureaplasmas undergo MBA size variation in vivo, to potentially prevent eradication by the immune response. Size variation of the MBA did not correlate with the severity of chorioamnionitis. Nonetheless, the correlation between a maternal humoral response and the expression of chorioamnion cytokines is a novel finding. This host response may be important in the pathogenesis of inflammation-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes

Work factors and psychological distress in nurses' aides: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nurses' aides (assistant nurses), the main providers of practical patient care in many countries, are doing both emotional and heavy physical work, and are exposed to frequent social encounters in their job. There is scarce knowledge, though, of how working conditions are related to psychological distress in this occupational group. The aim of this study was to identify work factors that predict the level of psychological distress in nurses' aides.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sample of this prospective study comprised 5076 Norwegian nurses' aides, not on leave when they completed a mailed questionnaire in 1999. Of these, 4076 (80.3 %) completed a second questionnaire 15 months later. A wide spectrum of physical, psychological, social, and organisational work factors were measured at baseline. Psychological distress (anxiety and depression) was assessed at baseline and follow-up by the SCL-5, a short version of Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a linear regression model of the level of psychological distress at follow-up, with baseline level of psychological distress, work factors, and background factors as independent variables, work factors explained 2 % and baseline psychological distress explained 34 % of the variance. Exposures to role conflicts, exposures to threats and violence, working in apartment units for the aged, and changes in the work situation between baseline and follow-up that were reported to result in less support and encouragement were positively associated with the level of psychological distress. Working in psychiatric departments, and changes in the work situation between baseline and follow-up that gave lower work pace were negatively associated with psychological distress.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study suggests that work factors explain only a modest part of the psychological distress in nurses' aides. Exposures to role conflicts and threats and violence at work may contribute to psychological distress in nurses' aides. It is important that protective measures against violent patients are implemented, and that occupational health officers offer victims of violence appropriate support or therapy. It is also important that health service organisations focus on reducing role conflicts, and that leaders listen to and consider the views of the staff.</p

Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?

This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift