Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to build with financial variables a qualitative probabilistic indicator with a 3- to 6-month lead on business and growth cycle. During the last forty years, the financial market rarely proved false signals and identified all recessions -which are dated by the NBER- and slowdowns periods of the American economy.Business cycles ; Qualitative multivariate Markov switching models ; MS-VAR models ; Leading indicators

SHANK3 controls maturation of social reward circuits in the VTA.

Haploinsufficiency of SHANK3, encoding the synapse scaffolding protein SHANK3, leads to a highly penetrant form of autism spectrum disorder. How SHANK3 insufficiency affects specific neural circuits and how this is related to specific symptoms remains elusive. Here we used shRNA to model Shank3 insufficiency in the ventral tegmental area of mice. We identified dopamine (DA) and GABA cell-type-specific changes in excitatory synapse transmission that converge to reduce DA neuron activity and generate behavioral deficits, including impaired social preference. Administration of a positive allosteric modulator of the type 1 metabotropic glutamate receptors mGluR1 during the first postnatal week restored DA neuron excitatory synapse transmission and partially rescued the social preference defects, while optogenetic DA neuron stimulation was sufficient to enhance social preference. Collectively, these data reveal the contribution of impaired ventral tegmental area function to social behaviors and identify mGluR1 modulation during postnatal development as a potential treatment strategy

Cooperative role of thrombopoietin and vascular endothelial growth factor-a in the progression of liver cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma

Primary thrombopoietic mediator thrombopoietin (THPO) is mainly produced by the liver; it may act as a growth factor for hepatic progenitors. Principal angiogenesis inducer vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) is critical for the complex vascular network within the liver architecture. As a cross-regulatory loop between THPO and VEGF-A has been demonstrated in the hematopoietic system, the two growth factors were hypothesized to cooperatively contribute to the progression from liver cirrhosis (LC) to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The mRNA and protein expression levels of THPO, VEGF-A, and their receptors were examined, compared, and correlated in paired cancerous and LC tissues from 26 cirrhosis-related HCC patients, using qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. THPO and VEGF-A were alternatively silenced by small interfering RNA (siRNA) in human liver cancer cell lines Huh7 and HepG2. THPO and VEGF-A expressions significantly increased in tumor versus LC tissues. HCC and paired LC cells expressed similar levels of THPO receptor (R), whereas vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) -1 and VEGFR-2 levels were higher in HCC than in corresponding LC tissue samples. A significant linear correlation emerged between THPO and VEGF-A transcripts in HCC and, at the protein level, THPO and THPOR were significantly correlated with VEGF-A in tumor tissues. Both HCC and LC expressed similar levels of gene and protein hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1α. Positive cross-regulation occurred with the alternative administration of siRNAs targeting THPO and those targeting VEGF-A in hypoxic liver cancer cell lines. These results suggest THPO and VEGF-A might act as interdependently regulated autocrine and/or paracrine systems for cellular growth in HCC. This might be clinically interesting, since new classes of THPOR agonistic/antagonistic drugs may provide novel therapeutic options to correct the frequent hemostatic abnormality seen in HCC patients

Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet Is Associated with Better Metabolic Features in Youths with Type 1 Diabetes

Our aim was to evaluate adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in relation to metabolic control. Adherence to the MedDiet was assessed with the Mediterranean Diet Quality Index (KIDMED)questionnaire and physical activity by the International Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescent (IPAQ-A) on 65 subjects (32 males, 9–18 years) with T1D. Clinical and metabolic evaluation was performed (standardized body mass index(BMI-SDS), hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c), continuous glucose monitoring metrics when present, blood pressure, lipid profile). Parental characteristics (age, body mass index (BMI), socio-economic status) were reported. The adherence to the MedDiet was poor in 12.3%, average in 58.6%, and high in 29.1% of the subjects. Furthermore, 23.4% of patients were overweight/obese. The most impacting factors on BMI-SDS were skipping breakfast and their father’s BMI. HbA1c and time in range % were positively associated with sweets and fish intake, respectively. Additionally, the father’s socio-economic status (SES) and mother’s age were associated with glucose control. Blood pressure was associated with travelling to school in vehicles, extra-virgin olive oil intake and milk/dairy consumption at breakfast. The promotion of the MedDiet, mainly having a healthy breakfast, is a good strategy to include in the management of T1D to improve glucose and metabolic control. This research is valuable for parents to obtain the best results for their children with T1D

Prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of patients coming from the community with sepsis due to multidrug resistant bacteria

Background: Although previous studies showed an increasing prevalence of infections due to multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria in the community, specific data on sepsis are lacking. We aimed to assess prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of patients with sepsis due to MDR bacteria. Methods: An observational, retrospective study was conducted on consecutive adult patients coming from the community and admitted to the Policlinico Hospital, Milan, Italy, with a diagnosis of sepsis between January 2011 and December 2015. Primary study outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results: Among 518 patients, at least one MDR bacteria was isolated in 88 (17%). ESBL+ Enterobacteriaceae were the most prevalent MDR bacteria (9.7%) followed by MRSA (3.9%). Independent risk factors for sepsis due to MDR bacteria were septic shock (OR: 2.2; p = 0.002) and hospitalization in the previous 90 days (OR: 2.3; p = 0.003). Independent risk factors for sepsis due to ESBL+ bacteria were hospitalization in the previous 90 days (OR: 2.1; p = 0.02) and stroke (OR: 2.1; p = 0.04). A significantly higher mortality was detected among patients with vs. without MDR bacteria (40.2% vs. 23.1% respectively, p = 0.001). Independent risk factors for mortality among patients with sepsis were coagulation dysfunction (OR: 3.2; p = 0.03), septic shock (OR: 3.2; p = 0.003), and isolation of a MDR bacteria (OR: 4.6; p < 0.001). Conclusion: In light of the prevalence and impact of MDR bacteria causing sepsis in patients coming from the community, physicians should consider ESBL coverage when starting an empiric antibiotic therapy in patients with specific risk factors, especially in the presence of septic shock

Spectroscopic and magnetic properties of an iodo Co^I tripodal phosphine complex

Reaction of the tripodal phosphine ligand 1,1,1-tris((diphenylphosphino)phenyl)ethane (PhP3) with CoI_2 spontaneously generates a one-electron reduced complex, [(PhP3)Co^(I)(I)] (1). The crystal structure of 1 reveals a distorted tetrahedral environment, with an apical Co–I bond distance of ~2.52 Å. Co^(II/I) redox occurs at an unusually high potential (+0.38 V vs. SCE). The electronic absorption spectrum of 1 exhibits an MLCT peak at 320 nm (ε = 8790 M^(−1) cm^(−1)) and a d–d feature at 850 nm (ε = 840 M^(−1) cm^(−1)). Two more d–d bands are observed in the NIR region, 8650 (ε = 450) and 7950 cm−1 (ε = 430 M−1 cm^(−1)). Temperature dependent magnetic measurements (SQUID) on 1 (solid state, 20–300 K) give μ_eff = 2.99(6) μB, consistent with an S = 1 ground state. Magnetic susceptibilities below 20 K are consistent with a zero field splitting (zfs) |D| = 8 cm^(−1). DFT calculations also support a spin-triplet ground state for 1, as optimized (6-31G*/PW91) geometries (S = 1) closely match the X-ray structure. EPR measurements performed in parallel mode (X-band; 0–15 000 G, 15 K) on polycrystalline 1 or frozen solutions of 1 (THF/toluene) exhibit a feature at g ≈ 4 that arises from a (Δm = 2) transition within the MS = manifold. Below 10 K, the EPR signal decreases significantly, consistent with a solution zfs parameter (|D| ≈ 8 cm^(−1)) similar to that obtained from SQUID measurements. Our work provides an EPR signature for high-spin Co^I in trigonal ligation

Whole Genome Sequencing Identified a 16 Kilobase Deletion on ECA13 Associated with Distichiasis in Friesian Horses

BACKGROUND: Distichiasis, an ocular disorder in which aberrant cilia (eyelashes) grow from the opening of the Meibomian glands of the eyelid, has been reported in Friesian horses. These misplaced cilia can cause discomfort, chronic keratitis, and corneal ulceration, potentially impacting vision due to corneal fibrosis, or, if secondary infection occurs, may lead to loss of the eye. Friesian horses represent the vast majority of reported cases of equine distichiasis, and as the breed is known to be affected with inherited monogenic disorders, this condition was hypothesized to be a simply inherited Mendelian trait. RESULTS: A genome wide association study (GWAS) was performed using the Axiom 670 k Equine Genotyping array (MNEc670k) utilizing 14 cases and 38 controls phenotyped for distichiasis. An additive single locus mixed linear model (EMMAX) approach identified a 1.83 Mb locus on ECA5 and a 1.34 Mb locus on ECA13 that reached genome-wide significance (pcorrected = 0.016 and 0.032, respectively). Only the locus on ECA13 withstood replication testing (p = 1.6 × 10− 5, cases: n = 5 and controls: n = 37). A 371 kb run of homozygosity (ROH) on ECA13 was found in 13 of the 14 cases, providing evidence for a recessive mode of inheritance. Haplotype analysis (hapQTL) narrowed the region of association on ECA13 to 163 kb. Whole-genome sequencing data from 3 cases and 2 controls identified a 16 kb deletion within the ECA13 associated haplotype (ECA13:g.178714_195130del). Functional annotation data supports a tissue-specific regulatory role of this locus. This deletion was associated with distichiasis, as 18 of the 19 cases were homozygous (p = 4.8 × 10− 13). Genotyping the deletion in 955 horses from 54 different breeds identified the deletion in only 11 non-Friesians, all of which were carriers, suggesting that this could be causal for this Friesian disorder. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a 16 kb deletion on ECA13 in an intergenic region that was associated with distichiasis in Friesian horses. Further functional analysis in relevant tissues from cases and controls will help to clarify the precise role of this deletion in normal and abnormal eyelash development and investigate the hypothesis of incomplete penetrance