Inference of the infection status of individuals using longitudinal testing data from cryptic populations: Towards a probabilistic approach to diagnosis

Effective control of many diseases requires the accurate detection of infected individuals. Confidently ascertaining whether an individual is infected can be challenging when diagnostic tests are imperfect and when some individuals go for long periods of time without being observed or sampled. Here, we use a multi-event capture-recapture approach to model imperfect observations of true epidemiological states. We describe a method for interpreting potentially disparate results from individuals sampled multiple times over an extended period, using empirical data from a wild badger population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis as an example. We examine the effect of sex, capture history and current and historical diagnostic test results on the probability of being truly infected, given any combination of diagnostic test results. In doing so, we move diagnosis away from the traditional binary classification of apparently infected versus uninfected to a probability-based interpretation which is updated each time an individual is re-sampled. Our findings identified temporal variation in infection status and suggest that capture probability is influenced by year, season and infection status. This novel approach to combining ecological and epidemiological data may aid disease management decision-making by providing a framework for the integration of multiple diagnostic test data with other information

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Genetic Ancestry-Smoking Interactions and Lung Function in African Americans: A Cohort Study

Background: Smoking tobacco reduces lung function. African Americans have both lower lung function and decreased metabolism of tobacco smoke compared to European Americans. African ancestry is also associated with lower pulmonary function in African Americans. We aimed to determine whether African ancestry modifies the association between smoking and lung function and its rate of decline in African Americans. Methodology/Principal Findings: We evaluated a prospective ongoing cohort of 1,281 African Americans participating in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study initiated in 1997. We also examined an ongoing prospective cohort initiated in 1985 of 1,223 African Americans in the Coronary Artery Disease in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. Pulmonary function and tobacco smoking exposure were measured at baseline and repeatedly over the follow-up period. Individual genetic ancestry proportions were estimated using ancestry informative markers selected to distinguish European and West African ancestry. African Americans with a high proportion of African ancestry had lower baseline forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) per pack-year of smoking (-5.7 ml FEV1/ smoking pack-year) compared with smokers with lower African ancestry (-4.6 ml in FEV1/ smoking pack-year) (interaction P value = 0.17). Longitudinal analyses revealed a suggestive interaction between smoking, and African ancestry on the rate of FEV1 decline in Health ABC and independently replicated in CARDIA. Conclusions/Significance: African American individuals with a high proportion of African ancestry are at greater risk for losing lung function while smoking. © 2012 Aldrich et al

A genome-wide admixture scan for ancestry-linked genes predisposing to sarcoidosis in African-Americans

Genome-wide linkage and association studies have uncovered variants associated with sarcoidosis, a multi-organ granulomatous inflammatory disease. African ancestry may influence disease pathogenesis since African Americans are more commonly affected by sarcoidosis. Therefore, we conducted the first sarcoidosis genome-wide ancestry scan using a map of 1,384 highly ancestry informative single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped on 1,357 sarcoidosis cases and 703 unaffected controls self-identified as African American. The most significant ancestry association was at marker rs11966463 on chromosome 6p22.3 (ancestry association risk ratio (aRR)= 1.90; p=0.0002). When we restricted the analysis to biopsy-confirmed cases, the aRR for this marker increased to 2.01; p=0.00007. Among the eight other markers that demonstrated suggestive ancestry associations with sarcoidosis were rs1462906 on chromosome 8p12 which had the most significant association with European ancestry (aRR=0.65; p=0.002), and markers on chromosomes 5p13 (aRR=1.46; p=0.005) and 5q31 (aRR=0.67; p=0.005), which correspond to regions we previously identified through sib pair linkage analyses. Overall, the most significant ancestry association for Scadding stage IV cases was to marker rs7919137 on chromosome 10p11.22 (aRR=0.27; p=2×10(−5)), a region not associated with disease susceptibility. In summary, through admixture mapping of sarcoidosis we have confirmed previous genetic linkages and identified several novel putative candidate loci for sarcoidosis

Nutrition in children with CRF and on dialysis

The objectives of this study are: (1) to understand the importance of nutrition in normal growth; (2) to review the methods of assessing nutritional status; (3) to review the dietary requirements of normal children throughout childhood, including protein, energy, vitamins and minerals; (4) to review recommendations for the nutritional requirements of children with chronic renal failure (CRF) and on dialysis; (5) to review reports of spontaneous nutritional intake in children with CRF and on dialysis; (6) to review the epidemiology of nutritional disturbances in renal disease, including height, weight and body composition; (7) to review the pathological mechanisms underlying poor appetite, abnormal metabolic rate and endocrine disturbances in renal disease; (8) to review the evidence for the benefit of dietetic input, dietary supplementation, nasogastric and gastrostomy feeds and intradialytic nutrition; (9) to review the effect of dialysis adequacy on nutrition; (10) to review the effect of nutrition on outcome

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance: The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. Objective: To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. Evidence Review: Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. Findings: In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535¿000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territor. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence,deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments fornoncommunicable disease and cancer control.The Institute for Health Metricsand Evaluation received funding from the Bill &Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2005–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

Objectives: To estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 2005 and 2015. Methods: Vital registration system and cancer registry data from the EMR region were analyzed for 29 cancer groups in 22 EMR countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 methodology. Results: In 2015, cancer was responsible for 9.4% of all deaths and 5.1% of all DALYs. It accounted for 722,646 new cases, 379,093 deaths, and 11.7 million DALYs. Between 2005 and 2015, incident cases increased by 46%, deaths by 33%, and DALYs by 31%. The increase in cancer incidence was largely driven by population growth and population aging. Breast cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia were the most common cancers, while lung, breast, and stomach cancers caused most cancer deaths. Conclusions: Cancer is responsible for a substantial disease burden in the EMR, which is increasing. There is an urgent need to expand cancer prevention, screening, and awareness programs in EMR countries as well as to improve diagnosis, treatment, and palliative care services.The funding source played no role in the design of thestudy, the analysis and interpretation of data, and the writing of thepaper. GBD 2015 is funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Gender gaps in education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Gender Gaps in Education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program: does it work for Indigenous Australians?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite a lower incidence of bowel cancer overall, Indigenous Australians are more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced stage when prognosis is poor. Bowel cancer screening is an effective means of reducing incidence and mortality from bowel cancer through early identification and prompt treatment. In 2006, Australia began rolling out a population-based National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) using the Faecal Occult Blood Test. Initial evaluation of the program revealed substantial disparities in bowel cancer screening uptake with Indigenous Australians significantly less likely to participate in screening than the non-Indigenous population.</p> <p>This paper critically reviews characteristics of the program which may contribute to the discrepancy in screening uptake, and includes an analysis of organisational, structural, and socio-cultural barriers that play a part in the poorer participation of Indigenous and other disadvantaged and minority groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A search was undertaken of peer-reviewed journal articles, government reports, and other grey literature using electronic databases and citation snowballing. Articles were critically evaluated for relevance to themes that addressed the research questions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The NBCSP is not reaching many Indigenous Australians in the target group, with factors contributing to sub-optimal participation including how participants are selected, the way the screening kit is distributed, the nature of the test and comprehensiveness of its contents, cultural perceptions of cancer and prevailing low levels of knowledge and awareness of bowel cancer and the importance of screening.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the population-based approach to implementing bowel cancer screening to the Australian population unintentionally excludes vulnerable minorities, particularly Indigenous and other culturally and linguistically diverse groups. This potentially contributes to exacerbating the already widening disparities in cancer outcomes that exist among Indigenous Australians. Modifications to the program are recommended to facilitate access and participation by Indigenous and other minority populations. Further research is also needed to understand the needs and social and cultural sensitivities of these groups around cancer screening and inform alternative approaches to bowel cancer screening.</p