Comparison of Identification Methods of a Time-varying Insulin Sensitivity Parameter in a Simulation Model of Glucose Metabolism in the Critically Ill

6-pages (invited)Models of glucose metabolism can help to simulate and predict the blood glucose response in hyperglycaemic, critically ill patients. Model prediction performance depends on a su ciently accurate estimation of the patient's time-varying insulin sensitivity. The work presents three least squares approaches, the integral method and a Bayesian method that have been compared by prediction accuracy on an absolute and on a relative scale. Clinical data yields 1491 blood glucose predictions based on 10 critically ill patients were processed. The Bayesian approach proved to be best with small errors (9:7% absolute percent error, 14:7 root mean square of logarithmic error for prediction times 2h), and fewer and smaller outliers compared to the other methods. Computationally, the Bayesian method took 1.5 times longer per prediction compared to the fastest method. It can be concluded that a Bayesian parameter estimation gives safe and e ective results for the insulin sensitivity estimation for this model

Prediction Validation of Two Glycaemic Control Models in Critical Care

Invited paperMetabolic models can substantially improve control of hyperglycaemia in critically ill patients. Control efficacy depends on how accurately a model-based system is able to predict future blood glucose (BG) concentrations after a glycaemic control intervention. This research compares two metabolic models in terms of their predictive power. 30 minutes to 10 hour forward predictions are made using the Glucosafe model (GS) and a clinically tested model (CC) from Christchurch in a retrospective study of 11 hyperglycemic patients, 6 from New Zealand and 5 from Denmark. Median and ranges of prediction errors are similar for predictions up to 360 minutes. Both models make better predictions on the Danish patients. At long prediction times of more than 5 hours, GS predictions tend to be more accurate in the cohort from New Zealand whereas the CC model tends to predict better in the cohort from Denmark. However, differences in root mean square (RMS) of prediction errors are not greater than 4–5% in both cohorts. For both models, outlying prediction errors are dominated by single patients, particularly type 1 diabetic patients. GS predicted BG values are generally higher compared to CC predicted values. As expected, the RMS prediction error increases with prediction interval for both models and cohorts. Results show the potential of both models for use in prospective clinical trials with longer than 120 min sampling intervals, though predictive power is probably related to the type of cohort in terms of admission type, degree of illness and glycaemic stability

An improved effective potential for electroweak phase transitions

It is shown that improved potentials and corrected mass terms can be introduced by using a quadratic source term in the path integral construction for the effective action. The advantage of doing things this way is that we avoid ever having to deal with complex propagators in the loop expansion. The resulting effective action for electroweak phase transitions is similar to the usual results.Comment: 16 pages, NCL93-TP16, (REVTEX

Microscopic calculation of the spin-dependent neutron scattering lengths on 3He

We report on the spin.dependent neutron scattering length on 3He from a microscopic calculation of p-3H, n-3He, and d-2H scattering employing the Argonne v18 nucleon-nucleon potential with and without additional three-nucleon force. The results and that of a comprehensive R-matrix analysis are compared to a recent measurement. The overall agreement for the scattering lengths is quite good. The imaginary parts of the scattering lengths are very sensitive to the inclusion of three-nucleon forces, whereas the real parts are almost insensitive.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figur

Relativistic description of 3He(e,e'p)2H

The Relativistic Distorted-Wave Impulse Approximation is used to describe the $^3$He($e,e^\prime p$)$^2$H process. We describe the $^3$He nucleus within the adiabatic hyperspherical expansion method with realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions. The overlap between the $^3$He and the deuteron wave functions can be accurately computed from a three-body calculation. The nucleons are described by solutions of the Dirac equation with scalar and vector (S-V) potentials. The wave function of the outgoing proton is obtained by solving the Dirac equation with a S-V optical potential fitted to elastic proton scattering data on the residual nucleus. Within this theoretical framework, we compute the cross section of the reaction and other observables like the transverse-longitudinal asymmetry, and compare them with the available experimental data measured at JLab.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of the 21st European Few Body Conference held in Salamanca (Spain) in August-September 201

Black Hole Evaporation in the Presence of a Short Distance Cutoff

A derivation of the Hawking effect is given which avoids reference to field modes above some cutoff frequency $\omega_c\gg M^{-1}$ in the free-fall frame of the black hole. To avoid reference to arbitrarily high frequencies, it is necessary to impose a boundary condition on the quantum field in a timelike region near the horizon, rather than on a (spacelike) Cauchy surface either outside the horizon or at early times before the horizon forms. Due to the nature of the horizon as an infinite redshift surface, the correct boundary condition at late times outside the horizon cannot be deduced, within the confines of a theory that applies only below the cutoff, from initial conditions prior to the formation of the hole. A boundary condition is formulated which leads to the Hawking effect in a cutoff theory. It is argued that it is possible the boundary condition is {\it not} satisfied, so that the spectrum of black hole radiation may be significantly different from that predicted by Hawking, even without the back-reaction near the horizon becoming of order unity relative to the curvature.Comment: 35 pages, plain LaTeX, UMDGR93-32, NSF-ITP-93-2