Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra

We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.Comment: 10 pages, accepted by Int. J. Theo. Phys. Feb 200

E-government and the digital divide: A study of English-as-a-Second-Language Users' Information Behaviour

Internet-based technologies are increasingly used by organisations and governments to offer services to consumers and the public in a quick and efficient manner, removing the need for face-to-face conversations and human advisors. Despite their obvious benefits for most users, these online systems may present barriers of access to certain groups in society which may lead to information poverty. In this study we consider the information behaviour of ten ESL (English as a Second Language) participants as they conduct four search tasks designed to reflect actual information seeking situations. Our results suggest that, despite a perception that they have a good understanding of English, they often choose documents that are only partially or tangentially relevant. There were significant differences in the behaviour of participants given their perceived confidence in using English to perform search tasks. Those who were confident took riskier strategies and were less thorough, leading to them bookmarking a larger proportion of non-relevant documents. The results of this work have potentially profound repercussions for how e-government services are provided and how second-language speakers are assisted in their use of these

Algorithmic Debugging of Real-World Haskell Programs: Deriving Dependencies from the Cost Centre Stack

Existing algorithmic debuggers for Haskell require a transformation of all modules in a program, even libraries that the user does not want to debug and which may use language features not supported by the debugger. This is a pity, because a promising ap- proach to debugging is therefore not applicable to many real-world programs. We use the cost centre stack from the Glasgow Haskell Compiler profiling environment together with runtime value observations as provided by the Haskell Object Observation Debugger (HOOD) to collect enough information for algorithmic debugging. Program annotations are in suspected modules only. With this technique algorithmic debugging is applicable to a much larger set of Haskell programs. This demonstrates that for functional languages in general a simple stack trace extension is useful to support tasks such as profiling and debugging

Prevalence and risk factors for mast cell tumours in dogs in England

BACKGROUND: Mast cell tumour (MCT) appears to be a frequent tumour type in dogs, though there is little published in relation to its frequency in dogs in the UK. The current study aimed to investigate prevalence and risk factors for MCTs in dogs attending English primary-care veterinary practices. METHODS: Electronic patient records from practices participating in the VetCompass animal surveillance project between July 2007 and June 2013 were searched for MCT diagnosis. Various search terms and standard diagnostic terms (VeNom codes) identified records containing MCT diagnoses, which were evaluated against clinical criteria for inclusion to the study. MCT prevalence for the entire dataset and specific breed types were calculated. Descriptive statistics characterised MCT cases and multivariable logistic regression methods evaluated risk factors for association with MCT (P < 0.05). RESULTS: Within a population of 168,636 dogs, 453 had MCT, yielding a prevalence of 0.27% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24% - 0.29%). The highest breed type specific prevalences were for the Boxer at 1.95% (95% CI 1.40% - 2.51%), Golden Retriever at 1.39% (0.98% - 1.81%) and Weimaraner at 0.85% (95% CI 0.17% to 1.53%). Age, insurance status, neuter status, weight and breed type were associated with MCT diagnosis. Of dogs of specific breed type, the Boxer, Pug and Staffordshire Bull Terrier showed greater odds of MCT diagnosis compared with crossbred dogs. Conversely, the German Shepherd Dog, Border Collie, West Highland White Terrier, Springer Spaniel and Cocker Spaniel had reduced odds of MCT diagnosis compared with crossbred dogs. No association was found between MCT diagnosis and sex. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights a clinically significant prevalence of MCT and identifies specific breed types with predisposition to MCT, potentially aiding veterinarian awareness and facilitating diagnosis

An evaluation of alternative techniques for automatic detection of shot boundaries in digital video

The application of image processing techniques to achieve substantial compression in digital video is one of the reasons why computer-supported video processing and digital TV are now becoming commonplace. The encoding formats used for video, such as the MPEG family of standards, have been developed primarily to achieve high compression rates, but now that this has been achieved, effort is being concentrated on other, content-based activities. MPEG-7, for example is a standard intended to support such developments. In the work described here, we are developing and deploying techniques to support content-based navigation and browsing through digital video (broadcast TV) archives. Fundamental to this is being able to automatically structure video into shots and scenes. In this paper we report our progress on developing a variety of approaches to automatic shot boundary detection in MPEG-1 video, and their evaluation on a large test suite of 8 hours of broadcast TV. Our work to date indicates that different techniques work well for different shot transition types and that a combination of techniques may yield the most accurate segmentation

Mathematics difficulties in extremely preterm children : evidence of a specific deficit in basic mathematics processing

Background: Extremely preterm (EP, <26 wk gestation) children have been observed to have poor academic achievement in comparison to their term-born peers, especially in mathematics. This study investigated potential underlying causes of this difficulty. Methods: A total of 219 EP participants were compared with 153 term-born control children at 11 y of age. All children were assessed by a psychologist on a battery of standardized cognitive tests and a number estimation test assessing children’s numerical representations. Results: EP children underperformed in all tests in comparison with the term controls (the majority of Ps < 0.001). Different underlying relationships between performance on the number estimation test and mathematical achievement were found in EP as compared with control children. That is, even after controlling for cognitive ability, a relationship between number representations and mathematical performance persisted for EP children only (EP: r = 0.346, n = 186, P < 0.001; control: r = 0.095, n = 146, P = 0.256). Conclusion: Interventions for EP children may target improving children’s numerical representations in order to subsequently remediate their mathematical skills

'We did everything we could'- A qualitative study exploring the acceptability of maternal-fetal surgery for spina bifida to parents

OBJECTIVE: To explore the concepts and strategies parents employ when considering maternal-fetal surgery (MFS) as an option for the management of spina bifida (SB) in their fetus, and how this determines the acceptability of the intervention. METHODS: A two-centre interview study enrolling parents whose fetuses with SB were eligible for MFS. To assess differences in acceptability, parents opting for MFS (n=24) were interviewed at three different moments in time: prior to the intervention, directly after the intervention and 3-6 months after birth. Parents opting for termination of pregnancy (n=5) were interviewed only once. Themes were identified and organised in line with the framework of acceptability. RESULTS: To parents opting for MFS, the intervention was perceived as an opportunity that needed to be taken. Feelings of parental responsibility drove them to do anything in their power to improve their future child's situation. Expectations seemed to be realistic yet were driven by hope for the best outcome. None expressed decisional regret at any stage, despite substantial impact and, at times, disappointing outcomes. For the small group of participants, who decided to opt for termination of pregnancy (TOP), MFS was not perceived as an intervention that substantially could improve the quality of their future child's life. CONCLUSION: Prospective parents opting for MFS were driven by their feelings of parental responsibility. They recognise the fetus as their future child and value information and care focusing on optimising the child's future health. In the small group of parents opting for TOP, MFS was felt to offer insufficient certainty of substantial improvement in quality of life and the perceived severe impact of SB drove their decision to end the pregnancy This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Effective growth of matter density fluctuations in the running LCDM and LXCDM models

We investigate the matter density fluctuations \delta\rho/\rho for two dark energy (DE) models in the literature in which the cosmological term \Lambda is a running parameter. In the first model, the running LCDM model, matter and DE exchange energy, whereas in the second model, the LXCDM model, the total DE and matter components are conserved separately. The LXCDM model was proposed as an interesting solution to the cosmic coincidence problem. It includes an extra dynamical component, the "cosmon" X, which interacts with the running \Lambda, but not with matter. In our analysis we make use of the current value of the linear bias parameter, b^2(0)= P_{GG}/P_{MM}, where P_{MM} ~ (\delta\rho/\rho)^2 is the present matter power spectrum and P_{GG} is the galaxy fluctuation power spectrum. The former can be computed within a given model, and the latter is found from the observed LSS data (at small z) obtained by the 2dF galaxy redshift survey. It is found that b^2(0)=1 within a 10% accuracy for the standard LCDM model. Adopting this limit for any DE model and using a method based on the effective equation of state for the DE, we can set a limit on the growth of matter density perturbations for the running LCDM model, the solution of which is known. This provides a good test of the procedure, which we then apply to the LXCDM model in order to determine the physical region of parameter space, compatible with the LSS data. In this region, the LXCDM model is consistent with known observations and provides at the same time a viable solution to the cosmic coincidence problem.Comment: LaTeX, 38 pages, 8 figures. Version accepted in JCA

Reduction of low- and high-grade cervical abnormalities associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine in Scotland

In Scotland, a national HPV immunisation programme began in 2008 for 12-13 year olds, with a catch-up campaign from 2008-2011 for those under the age of 18. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation on cervical disease at the population level, a programme of national surveillance was established.  We analysed colposcopy data from a cohort of women born between 1988-1992 who entered the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP) and were aged 20-21 in 2008-2012.  By linking datasets from the SCSP and colposcopy services, we observed a significant reduction in diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN 1) (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87, p=0.0008), CIN 2 (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4, 0.63, p<0.0001) and CIN 3 (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58, p< 0.0001) for women who received 3 doses of vaccine compared with unvaccinated women.  To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to show a reduction of low and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine at the population level. These data are very encouraging for countries that have achieved high HPV vaccine uptake

The Effect of EHR-Integrated Patient Reported Outcomes on Satisfaction with Chronic Pain Care

Objective Given its complexity, chronic noncancer pain presents an opportunity to use health information technology (IT) to improve care experiences. The objective of this study was to assess whether integrating patient-reported outcomes (PRO) data in an electronic health record (EHR) affects providers and patient satisfaction with chronic noncancer pain care. Study Design We conducted a pragmatic cluster randomized trial involving four family medicine clinics. Methods We enrolled primary care providers (PCPs) and their patients with chronic noncancer pain. In the first seven months (education phase), PCPs in intervention practices received education on how to use PROs for pain care. In the second seven months (PRO phase), patients in intervention practices reported pain-related outcomes upon arrival at their visits. PROs were immediately reported to PCPs through the EHR. Control group PCPs provided usual care. We compared intervention and control practices in terms of provider and patient satisfaction with care. Results During the education phase, patients’ mean ratings of their visits did not differ between control and intervention (9.33 vs. 9.08, p=0.20). During the PRO phase, patients’ mean ratings did not differ between control and intervention (9.28 vs 9.01, p=0.20). Similarly, there were no differences between the intervention and control groups in terms of provider satisfaction. Conclusion Delivering EHR-integrated PROs did not consistently improve patient or provider satisfaction. Positively, we found no evidence that the PRO tools negatively affected satisfaction. Future studies and technological innovations are needed to translate point-of-care health IT tools to improvements in patient and provider experiences