Brief Communication: Early season snowpack loss and implications for oversnow vehicle recreation travel planning

Oversnow vehicle recreation contributes to rural economies but requires a minimum snow depth to mitigate negative impacts on the environment. Daily snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from weather stations in the Lake Tahoe region (western USA) and a SWE reanalysis product are used to estimate the onset dates of SWE corresponding to ∼30&thinsp;cm in snow depth (SWEmin). Since 1985, median SWEmin onset has shifted later by approximately 2 weeks. Potential proximal causes of delayed onset are investigated; rainfall is increasing during October–January with dry days becoming warmer and more frequent. Adaptation strategies to address oversnow vehicle management challenges in recreation travel planning are explored.</p

Replica symmetry breaking in the `small world' spin glass

We apply the cavity method to a spin glass model on a `small world' lattice, a random bond graph super-imposed upon a 1-dimensional ferromagnetic ring. We show the correspondence with a replicated transfer matrix approach, up to the level of one step replica symmetry breaking (1RSB). Using the scheme developed by M\'ezard & Parisi for the Bethe lattice, we evaluate observables for a model with fixed connectivity and $\pm J$ long range bonds. Our results agree with numerical simulations significantly better than the replica symmetric (RS) theory.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure

Trading interactions for topology in scale-free networks

Scale-free networks with topology-dependent interactions are studied. It is shown that the universality classes of critical behavior, which conventionally depend only on topology, can also be explored by tuning the interactions. A mapping, $\gamma' = (\gamma - \mu)/(1-\mu)$, describes how a shift of the standard exponent $\gamma$ of the degree distribution $P(q)$ can absorb the effect of degree-dependent pair interactions $J_{ij} \propto (q_iq_j)^{-\mu}$. Replica technique, cavity method and Monte Carlo simulation support the physical picture suggested by Landau theory for the critical exponents and by the Bethe-Peierls approximation for the critical temperature. The equivalence of topology and interaction holds for equilibrium and non-equilibrium systems, and is illustrated with interdisciplinary applications.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

Theory of agent-based market models with controlled levels of greed and anxiety

We use generating functional analysis to study minority-game type market models with generalized strategy valuation updates that control the psychology of agents' actions. The agents' choice between trend following and contrarian trading, and their vigor in each, depends on the overall state of the market. Even in `fake history' models, the theory now involves an effective overall bid process (coupled to the effective agent process) which can exhibit profound remanence effects and new phase transitions. For some models the bid process can be solved directly, others require Maxwell-construction type approximations.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

Survey propagation for the cascading Sourlas code

We investigate how insights from statistical physics, namely survey propagation, can improve decoding of a particular class of sparse error correcting codes. We show that a recently proposed algorithm, time averaged belief propagation, is in fact intimately linked to a specific survey propagation for which Parisi's replica symmetry breaking parameter is set to zero, and that the latter is always superior to belief propagation in the high connectivity limit. We briefly look at further improvements available by going to the second level of replica symmetry breaking.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Neutron time-of-flight measurements of charged-particle energy loss in inertial confinement fusion plasmas

Neutron spectra from secondary ^{3}H(d,n)α reactions produced by an implosion of a deuterium-gas capsule at the National Ignition Facility have been measured with order-of-magnitude improvements in statistics and resolution over past experiments. These new data and their sensitivity to the energy loss of fast tritons emitted from thermal ^{2}H(d,p)^{3}H reactions enable the first statistically significant investigation of charged-particle stopping via the emitted neutron spectrum. Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, constrained to match a number of observables from the implosion, were used to predict the neutron spectra while employing two different energy loss models. This analysis represents the first test of stopping models under inertial confinement fusion conditions, covering plasma temperatures of k_{B}T≈1-4  keV and particle densities of n≈(12-2)×10^{24}  cm^{-3}. Under these conditions, we find significant deviations of our data from a theory employing classical collisions whereas the theory including quantum diffraction agrees with our data

The Cavity Approach to Parallel Dynamics of Ising Spins on a Graph

We use the cavity method to study parallel dynamics of disordered Ising models on a graph. In particular, we derive a set of recursive equations in single site probabilities of paths propagating along the edges of the graph. These equations are analogous to the cavity equations for equilibrium models and are exact on a tree. On graphs with exclusively directed edges we find an exact expression for the stationary distribution of the spins. We present the phase diagrams for an Ising model on an asymmetric Bethe lattice and for a neural network with Hebbian interactions on an asymmetric scale-free graph. For graphs with a nonzero fraction of symmetric edges the equations can be solved for a finite number of time steps. Theoretical predictions are confirmed by simulation results. Using a heuristic method, the cavity equations are extended to a set of equations that determine the marginals of the stationary distribution of Ising models on graphs with a nonzero fraction of symmetric edges. The results of this method are discussed and compared with simulations

Registration of ‘Hallam’ Wheat

‘Hallam’ (Reg. no. CV-983, PI 638790) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2005 by the developing institutions. Hallam was released primarily for its superior adaptation to rainfed wheat production systems in eastern Nebraska. The name Hallam was chosen to honor Hallam, NE, a town and its people rebuilding after a tornado. Hallam was selected from the cross ‘Brule’ (Schmidt et al., 1983)/‘Bennett’ (Schmidt et al., 1981)//‘Niobrara’ (Baenziger et al., 1996) that was made in 1992. The F1 generation was grown in the greenhouse and the F2 to F3 generations were advanced using the bulk breeding method in the field at Mead, NE. In 1995, single F3:4 rows were planted for selection. Hallam was selected in the F4 and there was no further selection thereafter. Hallam was evaluated as NE98471 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1999, in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 2001 and 2002, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials from 2002 to 2004. In the Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it was narrowly adapted and performs best in eastern Nebraska. The average Nebraska rainfed yield of Hallam of 4110 kg ha-1 (41 environments from 2002 to 2004) was greater than the yields of ‘Wahoo’ (4030 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2002), ‘Alliance’ (3880 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 1995), and ‘Harry’ (4000 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2004b), but was lower than ‘Millennium’ (4180 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2001) and ‘Wesley’ (4210 kg ha-1; Peterson et al., 2001). In its primary area of adaptation (eastern Nebraska), Hallam has yielded 4540 kg ha-1 (five environments), which was greater than Wesley (4150 kg ha-1), Millennium (4250 kg ha-1), Wahoo (3940 kg ha-1), and Alliance (3900 kg ha21). In the Northern Regional Performance Nursery, Hallam ranked 14th of 30 in 2001 (12 environments) and fourth of 25 entries in 2002 (13 environments) and averaged 100 kg ha-1 more grain yield than ‘Nekota’ (Haley et al., 1996). Hallam is not recommended for use in irrigated production systems where other wheat cultivars with superior performance, especially with better straw strength (described below), would be recommended. Other measurements of performance from comparison trials show that Hallam is moderately early in maturity (142 d after January 1, five environments), about 2.5 d and 1.2 d earlier flowering than Millennium and Wesley, respectively. Hallam is a semidwarf wheat cultivar. Hallam has a medium short coleoptile (46 mm), as expected for a semidwarf wheat cultivar, and is shorter than ‘Goodstreak’ (61 mm; Baenziger et al., 2004a) and slightly longer than semidwarf wheat cultivars such as Harry (36 mm). The mature plant height of Hallam (86 cm) is 3 cm shorter than Millennium and 6 cm taller than Wesley (41 environments). Hallam has moderate straw strength (45% lodged), similar to Wahoo (46% lodged), but worse than Wesley (34% lodged) in those environments (3) where severe lodging was found. The winter hardiness of Hallamis good to very good, similar to ‘Abilene’ (PI 511307) and comparable to other winter wheat cultivars adapted and commonly grown in Nebraska

Registration of ‘Hallam’ Wheat

‘Hallam’ (Reg. no. CV-983, PI 638790) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2005 by the developing institutions. Hallam was released primarily for its superior adaptation to rainfed wheat production systems in eastern Nebraska. The name Hallam was chosen to honor Hallam, NE, a town and its people rebuilding after a tornado. Hallam was selected from the cross ‘Brule’ (Schmidt et al., 1983)/‘Bennett’ (Schmidt et al., 1981)//‘Niobrara’ (Baenziger et al., 1996) that was made in 1992. The F1 generation was grown in the greenhouse and the F2 to F3 generations were advanced using the bulk breeding method in the field at Mead, NE. In 1995, single F3:4 rows were planted for selection. Hallam was selected in the F4 and there was no further selection thereafter. Hallam was evaluated as NE98471 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1999, in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 2001 and 2002, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials from 2002 to 2004. In the Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it was narrowly adapted and performs best in eastern Nebraska. The average Nebraska rainfed yield of Hallam of 4110 kg ha-1 (41 environments from 2002 to 2004) was greater than the yields of ‘Wahoo’ (4030 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2002), ‘Alliance’ (3880 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 1995), and ‘Harry’ (4000 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2004b), but was lower than ‘Millennium’ (4180 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2001) and ‘Wesley’ (4210 kg ha-1; Peterson et al., 2001). In its primary area of adaptation (eastern Nebraska), Hallam has yielded 4540 kg ha-1 (five environments), which was greater than Wesley (4150 kg ha-1), Millennium (4250 kg ha-1), Wahoo (3940 kg ha-1), and Alliance (3900 kg ha21). In the Northern Regional Performance Nursery, Hallam ranked 14th of 30 in 2001 (12 environments) and fourth of 25 entries in 2002 (13 environments) and averaged 100 kg ha-1 more grain yield than ‘Nekota’ (Haley et al., 1996). Hallam is not recommended for use in irrigated production systems where other wheat cultivars with superior performance, especially with better straw strength (described below), would be recommended. Other measurements of performance from comparison trials show that Hallam is moderately early in maturity (142 d after January 1, five environments), about 2.5 d and 1.2 d earlier flowering than Millennium and Wesley, respectively. Hallam is a semidwarf wheat cultivar. Hallam has a medium short coleoptile (46 mm), as expected for a semidwarf wheat cultivar, and is shorter than ‘Goodstreak’ (61 mm; Baenziger et al., 2004a) and slightly longer than semidwarf wheat cultivars such as Harry (36 mm). The mature plant height of Hallam (86 cm) is 3 cm shorter than Millennium and 6 cm taller than Wesley (41 environments). Hallam has moderate straw strength (45% lodged), similar to Wahoo (46% lodged), but worse than Wesley (34% lodged) in those environments (3) where severe lodging was found. The winter hardiness of Hallamis good to very good, similar to ‘Abilene’ (PI 511307) and comparable to other winter wheat cultivars adapted and commonly grown in Nebraska