Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Revisiting mortality deceleration patterns in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham framework

We calculate life-table aging rates (LARs) for overall mortality by estimating a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham (G GM) model and taking advantage of LAR’s parametric representation by Vaupel and Zhang [34]. For selected HMD countries, we study how the evolution of estimated LAR patterns could explain observed 1) longevity dynamics, and 2) mortality improvement or deterioration at different ages. Surprisingly, the age of mortality deceleration x showed almost no correlation with a number of longevity measures apart from e0. In addition, as mortality concentrates at older ages with time, its characteristic bell-shaped pattern becomes more pronounced. Moreover, in a GGM framework, we identify the impact of senescent mortality on shape of the rate of population aging. We also find evidence for a strong relationship between x and the statistically significant curvilinear changes in the evolution of e0 over time. Finally, model-based LARs appear to be consistent with point b) of the “heterogeneity hypothesis” [12]: mortality deceleration, due to selection effects, should shift to older ages as the level of total adult mortality declines

how useful are the causes of death when extrapolating mortality trends an update

Old age and adult mortality have over the last decades enjoyed a remarkable decline throughout the western world, posing the researcher with new challenges and opening up fresh horizons in life expectancy trends. The recent drop in mortality may be largely traced to the unexpected decline in cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers. Thus it could be hoped that in the future these trends would continue and extend to include other causes where, for the moment, little change has occurred. Such a hypothesis is all the more realistic in view of the fact that recent changes are linked, not just to advances in more efficacious medical treatment, but also to a growing awareness on the part of the general public regarding questions of health and the crucial role played by life style and behaviour. These include improved dietary habits, for example, a better attitude to risk factors, particularly to smoking, alcohol abuse, dangerous driving, etc. This awareness, which prevails among more recent, well-informed and better educated cohorts, not only produces immediate results, but maybe even more so in the future, should this spare coming generations the accumulation of risks which were and continue to be the burden particularly of older cohorts

Sex differential in mortality trends of old-aged Danes: a nation wide study of age, period and cohort effects

Objective Over the last half century the mortality rates in Denmark for females above age 80 have declined dramatically whereas the decline for males have been modest, resulting in a change in sex-ratio for centenarians from 2 to 5. Here we investigate whether this mortality pattern is mainly explained by period effects, cohort effects or both. This can provide clues for where to search for causes behind the changes in sex differential in mortality seen in many Western countries during the last decades. Methods Age-period-cohort study of mortality for all Danish women and men aged 79–98 during the period 1949–2006. Outcome measures Relative risks for deaths and second order differences for exploration of the nonlinear variation. Results Both the overall trends in mortality differences and the fluctuations in mortality for both men and women were better explained by period effects than by cohort effects. The observed rates were better described by the age, period and cohort model than by other models. Conclusions Our results suggest that causes for both the overall increased difference in mortality and the short term fluctuations in mortality rates are primarily to be found in the period dimension. Cohort effects on the mortality of the oldest Danish women and men played a significant but minor role compared to period effects

A Simple, Inexpensive Device for Nucleic Acid Amplification without Electricity—Toward Instrument-Free Molecular Diagnostics in Low-Resource Settings

Molecular assays targeted to nucleic acid (NA) markers are becoming increasingly important to medical diagnostics. However, these are typically confined to wealthy, developed countries; or, to the national reference laboratories of developing-world countries. There are many infectious diseases that are endemic in low-resource settings (LRS) where the lack of simple, instrument-free, NA diagnostic tests is a critical barrier to timely treatment. One of the primary barriers to the practicality and availability of NA assays in LRS has been the complexity and power requirements of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) instrumentation (another is sample preparation).In this article, we investigate the hypothesis that an electricity-free heater based on exothermic chemical reactions and engineered phase change materials can successfully incubate isothermal NA amplification assays. We assess the heater's equivalence to commercially available PCR instruments through the characterization of the temperature profiles produced, and a minimal method comparison. Versions of the prototype for several different isothermal techniques are presented.We demonstrate that an electricity-free heater based on exothermic chemical reactions and engineered phase change materials can successfully incubate isothermal NA amplification assays, and that the results of those assays are not significantly different from ones incubated in parallel in commercially available PCR instruments. These results clearly suggest the potential of the non-instrumented nucleic acid amplification (NINA) heater for molecular diagnostics in LRS. When combined with other innovations in development that eliminate power requirements for sample preparation, cold reagent storage, and readout, the NINA heater will comprise part of a kit that should enable electricity-free NA testing for many important analytes

New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs