Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050. METHODS: Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050. CONCLUSION: T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens

Redating the formation of Lake Bafa, western Turkey: Integrative geoarchaeological methods and new environmental and dating evidence

The ancient Gulf of Latmos is an iconic example of a dynamic landscape and humankind's historical relationship with it. Using extensive new primary data and original models for calibrating radiocarbon dates in transitional lagoon environments, we demonstrate that Lake Bafa (or Bafa Gölü, in Turkish) formed at a much earlier date than previously thought. In questioning the logical process by which previous dates were achieved, we re‐examine the relationship between sedimentological data, archaeology and written history. We reassert the need to establish independently dated environmental data sets as the foundation of regional studies as distinct from archaeological and historical interpretive processes. We conclude that Lake Bafa slowly transitioned to become an isolated lagoon sometime between the end of the second millennium B.C. and end of the first millennium B.C.; becoming a fully closed brackish lake during the second millennium A.D. This marks a major shift in our understanding of the nature of human occupation and activity here during the last four millennia but also in the way we date ancient lagoons and integrate historical and environmental data in general

Bilgin Adali's children's novels in terms of appropriateness to development areas [Gelişim alanlarına uygunluğu açısından bilgin adalı'nın çocuk romanları]

In this study, it was aimed to determine the suitability of children novels of Bilgin Adalı, one of the important figures of the contemporary children literature. In his childrens' novels, Adalı, who introduced first-age humans to today's children, aims his readers to have fun together with their peers instead of just giving informations about history. In addition to rich character variety in his works, these historical informations are narrated on the basis of language richness. Besides these features, Adalı's children novels include the fiction that the child's development areas can be monitored as a whole. The study is a descriptive research and was carried out on the basis of document analysis method. Author's novels Dünya Artık Daha Güzel, Mavi Gezegenin İlk İnsanları, Çatalhöyük Öyküleri 1,2 ve 3, Zaman Bisikleti 1,2 and 3, Aninna'nın Serüvenleri 1 and 2 were examined in terms of the suitability of cognitive, linguistic & personality and social development areas with the opinion of an expert. It was determined that ten works examined are adequate in the cognitive and language field and partly adequate in personality and social development areas. From these findings, it was concluded that Bilgin Adalı's children novels were suitable for between 9 to 12 year old children's development areas. © 2018 Folklor/Edebiyat. All rights reserved

Selection of Intensity Measure in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of a Turkish Railway Bridge

Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency

Seismic assessment of a multi-span steel railway bridge in Turkey based on nonlinear time history

Many research studies have shown that bridges are vulnerable to earthquakes, graphically confirmed by incidents such as the San Fernando (1971 USA), Northridge (1994 USA), Great Hanshin (1995 Japan), and Chi-Chi (1999 Taiwan) earthquakes, amongst many others. The studies show that fragility curves are useful tools for bridge seismic risk assessments, which can be generated empirically or analytically. Empirical fragility curves can be generated where damage reports from past earthquakes are available, but otherwise, analytical fragility curves can be generated from structural seismic response analysis. Earthquake damage data in Turkey are very limited, hence this study employed an analytical method to generate fragility curves for the Alasehir bridge. The Alasehir bridge is part of the Manisa–Uşak–Dumlupınar–Afyon railway line, which is very important for human and freight transportation, and since most of the country is seismically active, it is essential to assess the bridge's vulnerability. The bridge consists of six 30 m truss spans with a total span 189 m supported by 2 abutments and 5 truss piers, 12.5, 19, 26, 33, and 40 m. Sap2000 software was used to model the Alasehir bridge, which was refined using field measurements, and the effect of 60 selected real earthquake data analyzed using the refined model, considering material and geometry nonlinearity. Thus, the seismic behavior of Alasehir railway bridge was determined and truss pier reaction and displacements were used to determine its seismic performance. Different intensity measures were compared for efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency and their component and system fragility curves derived

Hemoptysis: a retrospective analysis of 108 cases

AbstractA retrospective analysis of 108 patients admitted to the hospital for hemoptysis in the year 2000 was performed. The aim of the study was to clarify the etiologic distribution of hemoptysis and the relation of etiology to the severity and recurrence of it. Of the cases, 79 were men and 29 were women, and the mean age was 51.74±17.51. In 77 of the cases it was the first attack, while in 31 it was recurrent. According to the severity of hemoptysis, it was classified as “mild” (<30 cm3), “moderate” (30–100 cm3), “severe” (100–600 cm3) and “massive” (>600 cm3). Lung cancer was the leading cause of hemoptysis (34.3%) followed by bronchiectasis (25.0%), tuberculosis (17.6%), pneumonia (10.2%) and pulmonary embolism (4.6%). Statistical analysis by chi-square test revealed that most of the lung cancer patients had mild hemoptysis (odds ratio 3.5; P<0.05), and the most frequent etiology in recurrent hemoptysis was bronchiectasis (odds ratio 3.25;P =0.01). Most of the lung cancer patients were male (P=0.002). The two leading causes of hemoptysis in our study are similar to many previous reports. The high rate of tuberculosis in our study is probably due to the high prevalence of tuberculosis in our country