Equity Yields

We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Japan.

Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach

This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modellingPeer reviewe

Washington meets Wall Street: a closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle

We show that average excess returns during the last two years of the presidential cycle are significantly higher than during the first two years: 9.8 percent over the period 1948 – 2008. This pattern in returns cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. In this paper, we formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as the alternative explanation found in the literature for explaining the presidential cycle anomaly. PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight empirically testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The existence of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power. JEL Classification: E32; G14; P16 Keywords: Political Economy, Market Efficiency, Anomalies, Calendar Effect

Sarcoidosis - a multisystem disease.

Sarcoidosis is a systemic inflammatory disease, characterised by granuloma formation upon an unknown trigger in genetically predisposed individuals. The inflammation is characterised by an activation of both the innate immune system, with macrophages differentiating into epitheloid cells and dendritic cells, and the adaptive immune system, particularly T helper (Th) 1 and Th17 cells. Since all organs can be affected to varying extents, clinical presentation is often diverse. Most commonly, the lungs, lymph nodes, skin and eyes are involved, whereas cardiac, renal and neurological manifestations are less common but associated with higher morbidity. Depending on the clinical symptoms, a detailed evaluation including thorough clinical examination, imaging and laboratory tests should explore all possible organ involvements. In some patients, fatigue manifests as a para-sarcoidosis symptom impacting quality of life, even if sarcoidosis is in remission. Some acute syndromic presentations, such as Löfgren's syndrome, have a good prognosis and are commonly self-limiting. If possible, a topical treatment, for example for cutaneous sarcoidosis or bronchial involvement, should be applied. Treatment of severe cases with persisting disease activity necessitates long-term immunosuppressive drugs, with glucocorticoids as the first-line option. Steroid-sparing and second-line drugs include methotrexate, azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil and immunomodulators such hydroxychloroquine, with the latter being first-line therapy in cutaneous sarcoidosis. Tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (particularly adalimumab and infliximab) are used as third-line agents but are administered earlier in cases of persistent disease activity, severe organ-involvement or intolerance to conventional drugs. Treatment decisions should be based on a multidisciplinary approach, depending on organ involvement and treatment tolerability. Para-sarcoidosis manifestations, particularly fatigue, should also be carefully addressed, where the patient could also be enrolled in multidimensional rehabilitation programmes. With various organ involvement and different phenotypes, larger studies including real-world data from registries are necessary to evaluate different sarcoidosis endotypes and preferential treatment pathways

Basement membrane and vascular remodelling in smokers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about airway remodelling in bronchial biopsies (BB) in smokers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We conducted an initial pilot study comparing BB from COPD patients with nonsmoking controls. This pilot study suggested the presence of reticular basement membrane (Rbm) fragmentation and altered vessel distribution in COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To determine whether Rbm fragmentation and altered vessel distribution in BB were specific for COPD we designed a cross-sectional study and stained BB from 19 current smokers and 14 ex-smokers with mild to moderate COPD and compared these to 15 current smokers with normal lung function and 17 healthy and nonsmoking subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thickness of the Rbm was not significantly different between groups; although in COPD this parameter was quite variable. The Rbm showed fragmentation and splitting in both current smoking groups and ex-smoker COPD compared with healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.02); smoking and COPD seemed to have additive effects. Rbm fragmentation correlated with smoking history in COPD but not with age. There were more vessels in the Rbm and fewer vessels in the lamina propria in current smokers compared to healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.05). The number of vessels staining for vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the Rbm was higher in both current smoker groups and ex-smoker COPD compared to healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.004). In current smoker COPD VEGF vessel staining correlated with FEV1% predicted (r = 0.61, p < 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Airway remodelling in smokers and mild to moderate COPD is associated with fragmentation of the Rbm and altered distribution of vessels in the airway wall. Rbm fragmentation was also present to as great an extent in ex-smokers with COPD. These characteristics may have potential physiological consequences.</p

The Cellular Phenotype of Roberts Syndrome Fibroblasts as Revealed by Ectopic Expression of ESCO2

Cohesion between sister chromatids is essential for faithful chromosome segregation. In budding yeast, the acetyltransferase Eco1/Ctf7 establishes cohesion during DNA replication in S phase and in response to DNA double strand breaks in G2/M phase. In humans two Eco1 orthologs exist: ESCO1 and ESCO2. Both proteins are required for proper sister chromatid cohesion, but their exact function is unclear at present. Since ESCO2 has been identified as the gene defective in the rare autosomal recessive cohesinopathy Roberts syndrome (RBS), cells from RBS patients can be used to elucidate the role of ESCO2. We investigated for the first time RBS cells in comparison to isogenic controls that stably express V5- or GFP-tagged ESCO2. We show that the sister chromatid cohesion defect in the transfected cell lines is rescued and suggest that ESCO2 is regulated by proteasomal degradation in a cell cycle-dependent manner. In comparison to the corrected cells RBS cells were hypersensitive to the DNA-damaging agents mitomycin C, camptothecin and etoposide, while no particular sensitivity to UV, ionizing radiation, hydroxyurea or aphidicolin was found. The cohesion defect of RBS cells and their hypersensitivity to DNA-damaging agents were not corrected by a patient-derived ESCO2 acetyltransferase mutant (W539G), indicating that the acetyltransferase activity of ESCO2 is essential for its function. In contrast to a previous study on cells from patients with Cornelia de Lange syndrome, another cohesinopathy, RBS cells failed to exhibit excessive chromosome aberrations after irradiation in G2 phase of the cell cycle. Our results point at an S phase-specific role for ESCO2 in the maintenance of genome stability