Volcanic eruption forecasts from accelerating rates of drumbeat long-period earthquakes

Abstract Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic “drumbeat” long‐period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well‐developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes

Pressure Dependence of the Elastic Moduli in Aluminum Rich Al-Li Compounds

I have carried out numerical first principles calculations of the pressure dependence of the elastic moduli for several ordered structures in the Aluminum-Lithium system, specifically FCC Al, FCC and BCC Li, L1_2 Al_3Li, and an ordered FCC Al_7Li supercell. The calculations were performed using the full potential linear augmented plane wave method (LAPW) to calculate the total energy as a function of strain, after which the data was fit to a polynomial function of the strain to determine the modulus. A procedure for estimating the errors in this process is also given. The predicted equilibrium lattice parameters are slightly smaller than found experimentally, consistent with other LDA calculations. The computed elastic moduli are within approximately 10% of the experimentally measured moduli, provided the calculations are carried out at the experimental lattice constant. The LDA equilibrium shear modulus C11-C12 increases from 59.3 GPa in Al, to 76.0 GPa in Al_7Li, to 106.2 GPa in Al_3Li. The modulus C_44 increases from 38.4 GPa in Al to 46.1 GPa in Al_7Li, then falls to 40.7 GPa in Al_3Li. All of the calculated elastic moduli increase with pressure with the exception of BCC Li, which becomes elastically unstable at about 2 GPa, where C_11-C_12 vanishes.Comment: 17 pages (REVTEX) + 7 postscript figure

Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder

We discover a qualitatively new behavior for systems where the load transfer has limiting stress amplification as in real fiber composites. We find that the disorder is a relevant field leading to tri--criticality, separating a first-order regime where rupture occurs without significant precursors from a second-order regime where the macroscopic elastic coefficient exhibit power law behavior. Our results are based on analytical analysis of fiber bundle models and numerical simulations of a two-dimensional tensorial spring-block system in which stick-slip motion and fracture compete.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 4 figures available upon reques

Explosive Dome Eruptions Modulated by Periodic Gas-Driven Inflation

Volcan Santiaguito (Guatemala) “breathes” with extraordinary regularity as the edifice\u27s conduit system accumulates free gas, which periodically vents to the atmosphere. Periodic pressurization controls explosion timing, which nearly always occurs at peak inflation, as detected with tiltmeters. Tilt cycles in January 2012 reveal regular 26 ± 6 min inflation/deflation cycles corresponding to at least ~101 kg/s of gas fluxing the system. Very long period (VLP) earthquakes presage explosions and occur during cycles when inflation rates are most rapid. VLPs locate ~300 m below the vent and indicate mobilization of volatiles, which ascend at ~50 m/s. Rapid gas ascent feeds pyroclast-laden eruptions lasting several minutes and rising to ~1 km. VLPs are not observed during less rapid inflation episodes; instead, gas vents passively through the conduit producing no infrasound and no explosion. These observations intimate that steady gas exsolution and accumulation in shallow reservoirs may drive inflation cycles at open-vent silicic volcanoes

Insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes: what is ‘double diabetes’ and what are the risks?

In this review, we explore the concept of ‘double diabetes’, a combination of type 1 diabetes with features of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. After considering whether double diabetes is a useful concept, we discuss potential mechanisms of increased insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes before examining the extent to which double diabetes might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We then go on to consider the proposal that weight gain from intensive insulin regimens may be associated with increased CV risk factors in some patients with type 1 diabetes, and explore the complex relationships between weight gain, insulin resistance, glycaemic control and CV outcome. Important comparisons and contrasts between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes are highlighted in terms of hepatic fat, fat partitioning and lipid profile, and how these may differ between type 1 diabetic patients with and without double diabetes. In so doing, we hope this work will stimulate much-needed research in this area and an improvement in clinical practice

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

The scale of population structure in Arabidopsis thaliana

The population structure of an organism reflects its evolutionary history and influences its evolutionary trajectory. It constrains the combination of genetic diversity and reveals patterns of past gene flow. Understanding it is a prerequisite for detecting genomic regions under selection, predicting the effect of population disturbances, or modeling gene flow. This paper examines the detailed global population structure of Arabidopsis thaliana. Using a set of 5,707 plants collected from around the globe and genotyped at 149 SNPs, we show that while A. thaliana as a species self-fertilizes 97% of the time, there is considerable variation among local groups. This level of outcrossing greatly limits observed heterozygosity but is sufficient to generate considerable local haplotypic diversity. We also find that in its native Eurasian range A. thaliana exhibits continuous isolation by distance at every geographic scale without natural breaks corresponding to classical notions of populations. By contrast, in North America, where it exists as an exotic species, A. thaliana exhibits little or no population structure at a continental scale but local isolation by distance that extends hundreds of km. This suggests a pattern for the development of isolation by distance that can establish itself shortly after an organism fills a new habitat range. It also raises questions about the general applicability of many standard population genetics models. Any model based on discrete clusters of interchangeable individuals will be an uneasy fit to organisms like A. thaliana which exhibit continuous isolation by distance on many scales

Gravitational sliding of the Mt. Etna massif along a sloping basement

Geological field evidence and laboratory modelling indicate that volcanoes constructed on slopes slide downhill. If this happens on an active volcano, then the movement will distort deformation data and thus potentially compromise interpretation. Our recent GPS measurements demonstrate that the entire edifice of Mt. Etna is sliding to the ESE, the overall direction of slope of its complex, rough sedimentary basement. We report methods of discriminating the sliding vector from other deformation processes and of measuring its velocity, which averaged 14 mm year−1 during four intervals between 2001 and 2012. Though sliding of one sector of a volcano due to flank instability is widespread and well-known, this is the first time basement sliding of an entire active volcano has been directly observed. This is important because the geological record shows that such sliding volcanoes are prone to devastating sector collapse on the downslope side, and whole volcano migration should be taken into account when assessing future collapse hazard. It is also important in eruption forecasting, as the sliding vector needs to be allowed for when interpreting deformation events that take place above the sliding basement within the superstructure of the active volcano, as might occur with dyke intrusion or inflation/deflation episodes