Hypercars: The next industrial revolution

The auto industry -- one-seventh of the GNP, and the highest expression of the Iron Age -- is about to trigger the biggest transformation in industrial structure since the microchip. Ultralight cars molded from net-shape advanced composites can be several-fold lighter than present steel cars, yet safer, sportier, and more comfortable, durable, and beautiful. Modern hybrid-electric drives boost efficiency approximately 1.3-1.5x in heavy steel cars, but approximately 5-20x in ultralight, very slippery plafforms. Synergistically combined into ultralight-hybrid 'hypercars,' these elements can yield state-of-the-shelf family cars that average 150-300+ mi/gal -- twice that with state-of-the-art technologies -- yet can also be superior in all other respects, probably including cost: carbon-fiber monocoques can actually be cheaper to mass-produce that steel unibodies. Designing cars more like aircraft and less like tanks requires not only an approximately 400-500 kg curb mass and very low air and road drag, but also an aerospace philosophy of engineering integration. Mass, cost, and complexity turn out to compound with heavy hybrids but to decompound with ultralight hybrids, owing partly to radical simplification. Excellent aerodynamics, preferable including advanced techniques for passive boundary-layer control, will be the key to successful design integration. Transforming automaking is a competitive and environmental imperative, could form the nucleus of a green industrial Renaissance, and would enhance national security by, among other things, saving as much oil as OPEC now extracts. However, this transformation faces serious cultural barriers. For example, hypercars will be more like computers with wheels than like cars with chips -- they'll have an order of magnitude more code than today's cars -- but Detroit is not a software culture. Just the transition from stamped and welded steel to integrated and adhesive-joined synthetics is difficult enough. Nonetheless, hypercars are rapidly heading to market in the late 1990s, because approximately 25 current and intending automakers are eager to capture their potentially decisive competitive advantages -- including order-of-magnitude reductions in product cycle time, tooling cost, assembly effort, and parts count. Hypercars will succeed, and may well sweep the market, not because of mandates or subsidies, but because of manufacturers' quest for competitive advantage and customers' desire for better, smarter cars

Conversations with my washing machine: an in-the-wild study of demand-shifting with self-generated energy

Domestic microgeneration is the onsite generation of low- and zero-carbon heat and electricity by private households to meet their own needs. In this paper we explore how an everyday household routine – that of doing laundry – can be augmented by digital technologies to help households with photovoltaic solar energy generation to make better use of self-generated energy. This paper presents an 8-month in-the-wild study that involved 18 UK households in longitudinal energy data collection, prototype deployment and participatory data analysis. Through a series of technology interventions mixing energy feedback, proactive suggestions and direct control the study uncovered opportunities, potential rewards and barriers for families to shift energy consuming household activities and highlights how digital technology can act as mediator between household laundry routines and energy demand-shifting behaviors. Finally, the study provides insights into how a “smart” energy-aware washing machine shapes organization of domestic life and how people “communicate” with their washing machine

Determining emotional profile based on microblogging analysis

First Online 30 August 2019In general, groups of people are formed because of the similarities and affinities that members have with each other. Musical preferences, soccer teams or even similar behaviours are examples of similarities and affinities that motivate group formation. In social media, identifying these affinities is a difficult task because personal information is not easily identified. In this paper we present an alternative to identifying similarities between authors and their most frequent audience in Twitter, using emotional and grammatical writing style analysis. Through this study it is possible to define the creation of an emotional profile entirely based on the interactions of people, thus allowing software like chatbots to “learn emotions” and provide emotionally acceptable responses.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciéncia e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2019

A sentiment analysis approach to increase authorship identification

Writing style is considered the manner in which an author expresses his thoughts, influenced by language characteristics, period, school, or nation. Often, this writing style can identify the author. One of the most famous examples comes from 1914 in Portuguese literature. With Fernando Pessoa and his heteronyms Alberto Caeiro, alvaro de Campos, and Ricardo Reis, who had completely different writing styles, led people to believe that they were different individuals. Currently, the discussion of authorship identification is more relevant because of the considerable amount of widespread fake news in social media, in which it is hard to identify who authored a text and even a simple quote can impact the public image of an author, especially if these texts or quotes are from politicians. This paper presents a process to analyse the emotion contained in social media messages such as Facebook to identify the author's emotional profile and use it to improve the ability to predict the author of the message. Using preprocessing techniques, lexicon-based approaches, and machine learning, we achieved an authorship identification improvement of approximately 5% in the whole dataset and more than 50% in specific authors when considering the emotional profile on the writing style, thus increasing the ability to identify the author of a text by considering only the author's emotional profile, previously detected from prior texts.FCT has supported this work – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2019

Wind-pv-thermal power aggregator in electricity market

This paper addresses the aggregation of wind, photovoltaic and thermal units with the aim to improve bidding in an electricity market. Market prices, wind and photovoltaic powers are assumed as data given by a set of scenarios. Thermal unit modeling includes start-up costs, variables costs and bounds due to constraints of technical operation, such as: ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. The modeling is carried out in order to develop a mathematical programming problem based in a stochastic programming approach formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem. A case study comparison between disaggregated and aggregated bids for the electricity market of the Iberian Peninsula is presented to reveal the advantage of the aggregation

Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection

Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability

The co-evolution of technological promises, modelling, policies and climate change targets

The nature and framing of climate targets in international politics has changed substantially since their early expressions in the 1980s. Here, we describe their evolution in five phases-from 'climate stabilization' to specific 'temperature outcomes'-co-evolving with wider climate politics and policy, modelling methods and scenarios, and technological promises (from nuclear power to carbon removal). We argue that this co-evolution has enabled policy prevarication, leaving mitigation poorly delivered, yet the technological promises often remain buried in the models used to inform policy. We conclude with a call to recognise and break this pattern to unleash more effective and just climate policy. This Perspective maps the history of climate targets and shows how the international goal of avoiding dangerous climate change has been reinterpreted in the light of new modelling methods and technological promises, ultimately enabling policy prevarication and limiting mitigation