On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km²) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly

Smokeless Tobacco Use and Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Among Males in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 1–4

The purpose of this period prevalence study is to compare the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in current/former established smokeless tobacco (SLT) users (ever SLT users who have used the product fairly regularly) to those who were: 1) never established cigarette smokers and SLT users, and 2) current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers (have smoked at least a 100 or more cigarettes in lifetime) only, adjusting for known risk factors for CVD. Analyses included 4,703 men ≥ 40 years of age who participated in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves: 1–4, conducted between 2013 and 2017. Current users were those using SLT products daily or on some days, whereas former users had not used SLT and/or cigarettes in the past 12 months. CVD prevalence was defined as a self-reported diagnosis of congestive heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction. Among current/former established SLT users, years of use defined exposure history, while pack-years defined exposure history for smokers. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported with trend tests to examine dose–response associations. Current/former established exclusive SLT users were not significantly more likely to have had any CVD compared to never established cigarette and SLT users (OR = 1.7 [0.8–3.7]), or current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers (OR = 0.9 [0.5–1.8]). Current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers were more likely to have had any CVD compared to those who were never established cigarette and SLT users (OR = 1.6 [1.1–2.3])