Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models—rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model—for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case

Modeling Water Resource Systems under Climate Change: IGSM-WRS

Through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change on managed water-resource systems. Development of the WRS involves the downscaling of temperature and precipitation from the zonal representation of the IGSM to regional (latitude-longitude) scale, and the translation of the resulting surface hydrology to runoff at the scale of river basins, referred to as Assessment Sub-Regions (ASRs). The model of water supply is combined with analysis of water use in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and with a model of water system management that allocates water among uses and over time and routes water among ASRs. Results of the IGSM-WRS framework include measures of water adequacy and ways it is influenced by climate change. Here we document the design of WRS and its linkage to other components of the IGSM, and present tests of consistency of model simulations with the historical record.The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science under grants DE-FG02-94ER61937, DE-FG02-93ER61677, DEFG02- 08ER64597, and DE-FG02-06ER64320; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grants XA-83344601-0, XA-83240101, XA-83042801-0, PI-83412601-0, RD-83096001, and RD- 83427901-0; the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants SES-0825915, EFRI-0835414, ATM-0120468, BCS-0410344, ATM-0329759, and DMS-0426845; the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grants NNX07AI49G, NNX08AY59A, NNX06AC30A, NNX09AK26G, NNX08AL73G, NNX09AI26G, NNG04GJ80G, NNG04GP30G, and NNA06CN09A; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grants DG1330-05-CN-1308, NA070AR4310050, and NA16GP2290; the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration under grant 06-C-NE-MIT; the Electric Power Research Institute under grant EPP32616/ C15124; and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors (for the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html)

Effect of formant frequency spacing on perceived gender in pre-pubertal children's voices

<div><p>Background</p><p>It is usually possible to identify the sex of a pre-pubertal child from their voice, despite the absence of sex differences in fundamental frequency at these ages. While it has been suggested that the overall spacing between formants (formant frequency spacing - ΔF) is a key component of the expression and perception of sex in children's voices, the effect of its continuous variation on sex and gender attribution has not yet been investigated.</p><p>Methodology/Principal findings</p><p>In the present study we manipulated voice ΔF of eight year olds (two boys and two girls) along continua covering the observed variation of this parameter in pre-pubertal voices, and assessed the effect of this variation on adult ratings of speakers' sex and gender in two separate experiments. In the first experiment (sex identification) adults were asked to categorise the voice as either male or female. The resulting identification function exhibited a gradual slope from male to female voice categories. In the second experiment (gender rating), adults rated the voices on a continuum from “masculine boy” to “feminine girl”, gradually decreasing their masculinity ratings as ΔF increased.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>These results indicate that the role of ΔF in voice gender perception, which has been reported in adult voices, extends to pre-pubertal children's voices: variation in ΔF not only affects the perceived sex, but also the perceived masculinity or femininity of the speaker. We discuss the implications of these observations for the expression and perception of gender in children's voices given the absence of anatomical dimorphism in overall vocal tract length before puberty.</p></div

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Developing Organ Offer and Acceptance Measures: When ‘Good’ Organs Are Turned Down

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75521/1/j.1600-6143.2007.01784.x.pd

Evidence for multiple rhythmic skills

Rhythms, or patterns in time, play a vital role in both speech and music. Proficiency in a number of rhythm skills has been linked to language ability, suggesting that certain rhythmic processes in music and language rely on overlapping resources. However, a lack of understanding about how rhythm skills relate to each other has impeded progress in understanding how language relies on rhythm processing. In particular, it is unknown whether all rhythm skills are linked together, forming a single broad rhythmic competence, or whether there are multiple dissociable rhythm skills. We hypothesized that beat tapping and rhythm memory/sequencing form two separate clusters of rhythm skills. This hypothesis was tested with a battery of two beat tapping and two rhythm memory tests. Here we show that tapping to a metronome and the ability to adjust to a changing tempo while tapping to a metronome are related skills. The ability to remember rhythms and to drum along to repeating rhythmic sequences are also related. However, we found no relationship between beat tapping skills and rhythm memory skills. Thus, beat tapping and rhythm memory are dissociable rhythmic aptitudes. This discovery may inform future research disambiguating how distinct rhythm competencies track with specific language functions

CMOS Monolithic Active Pixel Sensors (MAPS) for future vertex detectors

This paper reviews the development of CMOS Monolithic Active Pixel Sensors (MAPS) for future vertex detectors. MAPS are developed in a standard CMOS technology. In the imaging field, where the technology found its first applications, they are also known as CMOS Image Sensors. The use of MAPS as a detector for particle physics was first proposed at the end of 1999. Since then, their good performance in terms of spatial resolution, efficiency, radiation hardness have been demonstrated and work is now well under way to deliver the first MAPS-based vertex detectors.Comment: Invited talk at International Symposium on the Development of Detectors for Particle, AstroParticle and Synchrtron Radiation Experiments, Stanford Ca (SNIC06) 4 pages, pdf, 2 TIFF figures, PSN000

Assessing the value of potential native winners for restoration of cheatgrass-invaded habitat

Native plants that are able to persist and reproduce in highly disturbed habitats (i.e., “native winners”) may be useful to include in seed mixes when restoring similarly disturbed habitat. Establishing whether these plants produce viable seeds that germinate to a high degree under appropriate conditions is a first step to determining their utility as restoration species. We identified 10 potential native winners at sites degraded by cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), an invasive annual grass ubiquitous in the Colorado Plateau. We assessed seed viability for each species to determine its potential to reproduce within a cheatgrass-invaded site, and conducted a series of germination and competition experiments to test how effective these species may be when restoring habitat invaded by cheatgrass. All species produced viable seed (ranging from 56% to 100% viability), and the seeds of many species had high germination under a range of fall conditions without cold stratification, which is thought to increase establishment potential in cheatgrass-dominated habitats. We selected the 5 species with the highest germination and conducted a greenhouse competition study to determine their response to cheatgrass presence. The growth of all 5 forb species was suppressed by cheatgrass. However results from germination and competition trials suggest that several species, in particular Acmispon humistratus, Cryptantha fendleri, andMachaeranthera tanacetifolia, may be beneficial for restoration of cheatgrassinvaded sites. These 3 species have higher percent germination (78%–100%) and germination tolerance (0.42–0.63), and were suppressed less by cheatgrass (relative interaction index of negative 0.28–0.49) than a commonly seeded restoration species, Penstemon palmeri. Acmispon humistratus and M. tanacetifolia, in particular, are also desirable candidates for use in restoration because of the ecosystem services they provide. In general, natives that grow, reproduce, and tolerate competition in degraded habitats are potential native winners and worthwhile candidates for use in restoration of similarly degraded sites.Las plantas nativas capaces de persistir y reproducirse en hábitats altamente perturbados (es decir, ganadores nativos) pueden ser valiosas en las mezclas de semillas utilizadaspara restaurar un hábitat similarmente perturbado. Un primer paso para determinar su utilidad como especies restauradoras es establecer si estas plantas producen semillas viables con un alto grado de germinación en condiciones apropiadas. Identificamos 10 posibles ganadores nativos en ubicaciones degradadas por Bromus tectorum, una planta invasora con ciclo anual que se encuentra en la meseta de Colorado. Evaluamos la viabilidad de las semillas de cada especie para determinar su potencial para reproducirse en una ubicación invadida por B. tectorum, y llevamos a cabo una serie de experimentos de germinación y competencia para probar el potencial de estas especies para restaurar el hábitat invadido por B. tectorum. Todas las especies produjeron semillas viables (oscilando entre un 56% a un 100% de viabilidad), y muchas especies presentaron una alta germinación bajo un rango de condiciones de caída sin estratificación en frío, que se cree aumentan el potencial para establecerse en hábitats dominados por B. tectorum. Seleccionamos a las 5 especies de mayor germinación y realizamos un estudio de la competencia en invernaderos para determinar su respuesta a la presencia de B. tectorum El crecimiento de las 5 especies fue suprimido por la hierba. Sin embargo, los resultados de germinación y los ensayos de competencia sugieren que varias especies evaluadas, en particular Acmispon humistratus, Cryptantha fendleri y Machaeranthera tanacetifolia, pueden ser beneficiosas para restaurar zonas invadidas por B. tectorum. Estas tres especies tienen mayor porcentaje de germinación (78%–100%) y tolerancia de germinación (de 0.42 a 0.63), y fueron menosperturbadas por B. tectorum (índice relativo de interacción negativa 0.28–0.49) que Penstemon palmeri, una especie utilizada en la restauración comúnmente.Acmispon humistratus y M. tanacetifolia, en particular, también son candidatos comunes para la restauración debido a los servicios que proporcionan a los ecosistemas. En general, los ejemplares nativos que crecen, se reproducen y toleran la competencia en hábitats degradados son posibles ganadores nativos y candidatos que merecen ser utilizados en la restauración de zonas degradadas de manera similar

An HMM-Based Framework for Supporting Accurate Classification of Music Datasets

open3In this paper, we use Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coecients (MFCC) to build statistical models of classical music composers directly from the music datasets. Several musical pieces are divided by instruments (String, Piano, Chorus, Orchestra), and, for each instrument, statistical models of the composers are computed.We selected 19 dierent composers spanning four centuries by using a total number of 400 musical pieces. Each musical piece is classied as belonging to a composer if the corresponding HMM gives the highest likelihood for that piece. We show that the so-developed models can be used to obtain useful information on the correlation between the composers. Moreover, by using the maximum likelihood approach, we also classied the instrumentation used by the same composer. Besides as an analysis tool, the described approach has been used as a classier. This overall originates an HMM-based framework for supporting accurate classication of music datasets. On a dataset of String Quartet movements, we obtained an average composer classication accuracy of more than 96%. As regards instrumentation classication, we obtained an average classication of slightly less than 100% for Piano, Orchestra and String Quartet. In this paper, the most signicant results coming from our experimental assessment and analysis are reported and discussed in detail.openCuzzocrea, Alfredo; Mumolo, Enzo; Vercelli, GianniCuzzocrea, Alfredo; Mumolo, Enzo; Vercelli, Giann