Зональные фораминиферовые схемы нижнего карбона западных регионов Украины

Запропоновано зональні форамініферові схеми нижнього карбону Придобруджинського прогину та Львівсько-Волинського басейну. У Придобруджинському прогині нараховується вісім зон і дві підзони, з них одна зона і дві підзони виділені вперше. У п'яти зон змінено види-індекси, У Львівсько-Волинському басейні є п’ять зон і дві підзони, з них одна зона нова. Дві колишні зони об'єднано в одну — з двома підзонами. Змінено види-індекси трьох зон. В обох регіонах уточнено обсяг зон та їх межі. Границі зон і підзон проведено за першою появою видів-індексів. Проведено зіставлення цих зональних схем із форамініферовими зонами Доно-Дніпровського регіону і Східно-Європейської платформи.Foraminiferal zonal schemes of the Lower Carboniferous of the Dobrudja Foredeep and Lvov-Volynian basin are proposed in the paper. The first scheme includes eight zones and two subzones; among them one zone and two subzones are specified for the first time. In five zones species-index is changed. The second scheme includes five zones and two subzones; one zone is specified for the first time. Two preceding zones are united into one with two subzones. In three zones species-index is changed. The boundaries of zones and subzones are determined according to the first occurrence of species-index. Correlation of these zones with foraminiferal zones of Dono-Dnieper region and East-European platform is performed

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice

Track E Implementation Science, Health Systems and Economics

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138412/1/jia218443.pd

Forecasting the global demand for HIV monitoring and diagnostic tests: A 2016-2021 analysis.

INTRODUCTION:Despite considerable progress, just over half of the 37 million people eligible to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) have accessed treatment and millions of HIV-positive people still do not know their status. With demand for ART continuing to grow, meeting the ambitious 90-90-90 HIV treatment targets will depend on improved access to high-quality diagnostics to both diagnose infection and monitor treatment adherence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Robust projections of future demand for CD4, viral load (VL), HIV early-infant-diagnosis (EID) tests and HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are needed as scale-up continues. METHODS:We estimate the current coverage for HIV diagnostics and project future demand to 2021 using a consolidated forecast using data on past coverage and current demand from a number of sources, from 130 predominantly LMIC countries. RESULTS:We forecast that the overall number of CD4 tests is expected to decline between now and 2021 as more countries adopt test-and-treat and shift to VL testing for patient monitoring. Our consolidated forecast projects a gradual decline in demand for CD4 tests to 16.6 million by 2021. We anticipate that demand for VL tests will increase to 28.5 million by 2021, reflecting the increasing number of people who will receive ART and the adoption of VL testing for patient monitoring. We expect that the demand for EID tests will grow more rapidly than in past years, driven by the implementation of testing at birth in programmes globally, in line with WHO guideline recommendations, doubling to 2.1 million tests by 2021. Demand for rapid diagnostic tests is also likely to increase, reaching 509 million tests by 2021. DISCUSSION:In order to achieve the ambitious 90-90-90 targets, it will be essential to maintain and improve access to CD4, VL, EID tests and RDTs. These projections provide insight into the global demand we can expect to see for these HIV monitoring and diagnostic tests, both in relation to historical trends, and the 90-90-90 targets. Our projections will better enable producers to ensure adequate supply, and to support procurement organisations in planning future funding and purchase plans to meet the anticipated demand. The findings highlight the ongoing need for governments and international funding bodies to prioritise improving capacity and access to HIV diagnostic and monitoring technologies in line with demand

Adoption of guidelines on and use of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global summary and forecasting study.

BACKGROUND In 2016, the UN General Assembly set a global target of 3 million oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users by 2020. With this target at an end, we aimed to assess global trends in the adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines and numbers of PrEP users, defined as people who received oral PrEP at least once in a given year, and to estimate future trajectories of PrEP use. METHODS In this global summary and forecasting study, data on adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations and numbers of PrEP users were obtained through the Global AIDS Monitoring system and WHO regional offices. Trends in these indicators for 2016-19 by region and for 2019 by country were described, including by gender and priority populations where data were available. PrEP user numbers were forecasted until 2023 by selecting countries with at least 3 years of PrEP user data as example countries in each region to represent possible future PrEP user trajectories. PrEP user growth rates observed in example countries were applied to countries in corresponding regions under different scenarios, including a COVID-19 disruption scenario with static global PrEP use in 2020. FINDINGS By the end of 2019, 120 (67%) of 180 countries with data had adopted the WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines (23 in 2019 and 30 in 2018). In 2019, there were about 626 000 PrEP users across 77 countries, including 260 000 (41·6%) in the region of the Americas and 213 000 (34·0%) in the African region; this is a 69% increase from about 370 000 PrEP users across 66 countries in 2018. Without COVID-19 disruptions, 0·9-1·1 million global PrEP users were projected by the end of 2020 and 2·4-5·3 million are projected by the end of 2023. If COVID-19 disruptions resulted in no PrEP user growth in 2020, the projected number of PrEP users in 2023 is 2·1-3·0 million. INTERPRETATION Widespread adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations coincided with a global increase in PrEP use. Although the 2020 global PrEP target will be missed, strong future growth in PrEP use is possible. New PrEP products could expand the PrEP user base, and, with greater expansion of oral PrEP, further adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations, and simplified delivery, PrEP could contribute to ending AIDS by 2030