245 research outputs found

    U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

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    Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

    U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

    Get PDF
    Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

    Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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    This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

    Poor glycated haemoglobin control and adverse pregnancy outcomes in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: Systematic review of observational studies

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    BACKGROUND: Glycaemic control in women with diabetes is critical to satisfactory pregnancy outcome. A systematic review of two randomised trials concluded that there was no clear evidence of benefit from very tight versus tight glycaemic control for pregnant women with diabetes. METHODS: A systematic review of observational studies addressing miscarriage, congenital malformations and perinatal mortality among pregnant women with type 1 and type 2 diabetes was carried out. Literature searches were performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane Library. Observational studies with data on glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) levels categorised into poor and optimal control (as defined by the study investigators) were selected. Relative risks and odds ratios were calculated for HbA(1c )and pregnancy outcomes. Adjusted relative risk estimates per 1-percent decrease in HbA(1c )were calculated for studies which contained information on mean and standard deviations of HbA(1c). RESULTS: The review identified thirteen studies which compared poor versus optimal glycaemic control in relation to maternal, fetal and neonatal outcomes. Twelve of these studies reported the outcome of congenital malformations and showed an increased risk with poor glycaemic control, pooled odds ratio 3.44 (95%CI, 2.30 to 5.15). For four of the twelve studies, it was also possible to calculate a relative risk reduction of congenital malformation for each 1-percent decrease in HbA(1c), these varied from 0.39 to 0.59. The risk of miscarriage was reported in four studies and was associated with poor glycaemic control, pooled odds ratio 3.23 (95%CI, 1.64 to 6.36). Increased perinatal mortality was also associated with poor glycaemic control, pooled odds ratio 3.03 (95%CI, 1.87 to 4.92) from four studies. CONCLUSION: This analysis quantifies the increase in adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with diabetes who have poor glycaemic control. Relating percentage risk reduction in HbA(1c )to relative risk of adverse pregnancy events may be useful in motivating women to achieve optimal control prior to conception

    Southern Ocean deep convection as a driver of Antarctic warming events

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    Simulations with a free-running coupled climate model show that heat release associated with Southern Ocean deep convection variability can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of up to 2.0 °C. The mechanism involves three steps: Preconditioning: heat accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the buoyantly unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice–albedo feedbacks (on annual–decadal timescales) and slow Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to convective heat release (on multidecadal–century timescales) drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport toward Antarctica. We discuss the potential of this mechanism to help drive and amplify climate variability as observed in Antarctic ice-core records

    ForCenS-LGM: a dataset of planktonic foraminifera species assemblage composition for the Last Glacial Maximum

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    Species assemblage composition of marine microfossils offers the possibility to investigate ecological and climatological change on time scales inaccessible using conventional observations. Planktonic foraminifera - calcareous zooplankton - have an excellent fossil record and are used extensively in palaeoecology and palaeoceanography. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19,000 – 23,000 years ago), the climate was in a radically different state. This period is therefore a key target to investigate climate and biodiversity under different conditions than today. Studying LGM climate and ecosystems indeed has a long history, yet the most recent global synthesis of planktonic foraminifera assemblage composition is now nearly two decades old. Here we present the ForCenS-LGM dataset with 2,365 species assemblage samples collected using standardised methods and with harmonised taxonomy. The data originate from marine sediments from 664 sites and present a more than 50% increase in coverage compared to previous work. The taxonomy is compatible with the most recent global core top dataset, enabling direct investigation of temporal changes in foraminifera biogeography and facilitating seawater temperature reconstructions

    Stability of North Atlantic water masses in face of pronounced climate variability during the Pleistocene

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    Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 19 (2004): PA2008, doi:10.1029/2003PA000921.Geochemical profiles from the North Atlantic Ocean suggest that the vertical δ13C structure of the water column at intermediate depths did not change significantly between glacial and interglacial time over much of the Pleistocene, despite large changes in ice volume and iceberg delivery from nearby landmasses. The most anomalous δ13C profiles are from the extreme interglaciations of the late Pleistocene. This compilation of data suggests that, unlike today (an extreme interglaciation), the two primary sources of northern deep water, Norwegian-Greenland Sea and Labrador Sea/subpolar North Atlantic, had different characteristic δ13C values over most of the Pleistocene. We speculate that the current open sea ice conditions in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea are a relatively rare occurrence and that the high-δ13C deep water that forms in this region today is geologically unusual. If northern source deep waters can have highly variable δ13C, then this likelihood must be considered when inferring past circulation changes from benthic δ13C records.National Science Foundation grants OCE-0118005 and OCE-0118001, which supported MER and DWO
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