Examining the Link between Crime and Unemployment: A Time Series Analysis for Canada

We use national and regional Canadian data to analyse the relationship between economic activity (as reflected by the unemployment rate) and crime rates. Given potential aggregation bias, we disaggregate the crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes rates and unemployment rate; we also disaggregate the data by region. We employ an error correction model in our analysis to test for short-run and long-run dynamics. We find no evidence of long-run relationship between crime and unemployment, when we look at both disaggregation by type of crime and disaggregation by region. Lack of evidence of a long-run relationship indicates we have no evidence of the motivation hypothesis. For selected types of property crimes, we find some evidence of a significant negative short-run relationship between crime and unemployment, lending support to the opportunity hypothesis. Inclusion of control variables in the panel analysis does not alter the findings, qualitatively or quantitatively

New mobilities across the lifecourse: A framework for analysing demographically-linked drivers of migration

Date of acceptance: 17/02/2015Taking the life course as the central concern, the authors set out a conceptual framework and define some key research questions for a programme of research that explores how the linked lives of mobile people are situated in time–space within the economic, social, and cultural structures of contemporary society. Drawing on methodologically innovative techniques, these perspectives can offer new insights into the changing nature and meanings of migration across the life course.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Posterior-based proposals for speeding up Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development of application specific implementations. This paper introduces "posterior-based proposals" (PBPs), a new type of MCMC update applicable to a huge class of statistical models (whose conditional dependence structures are represented by directed acyclic graphs). PBPs generates large joint updates in parameter and latent variable space, whilst retaining good acceptance rates (typically 33%). Evaluation against other approaches (from standard Gibbs / random walk updates to state-of-the-art Hamiltonian and particle MCMC methods) was carried out for widely varying model types: an individual-based model for disease diagnostic test data, a financial stochastic volatility model, a mixed model used in statistical genetics and a population model used in ecology. Whilst different methods worked better or worse in different scenarios, PBPs were found to be either near to the fastest or significantly faster than the next best approach (by up to a factor of 10). PBPs therefore represent an additional general purpose technique that can be usefully applied in a wide variety of contexts.Comment: 54 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Robust tests for time-invariant individual heterogeneity versus dynamic state dependence

We derive tests for persistent effects in a general linear dynamic panel data context. Two sources of persistent behavior are considered: time-invariant unobserved factors (captured by an individual random effect) and dynamic persistence or “state dependence” (captured by autoregressive behavior). We will use a maximum likelihood framework to derive a family of tests that help researchers learn whether persistence is due to individual heterogeneity, dynamic effect, or both. The proposed tests have power only in the direction they are designed to perform, that is, they are locally robust to the presence of alternative sources of persistence, and consequently, are able to identify which source of persistence is active. A Monte Carlo experiment is implemented to explore the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures. The tests are applied to a panel data series of real GDP growth for the period 1960–2005

Testing for spatial autocorrelation: the regressors that make the power disappear

We show that for any sample size, any size of the test, and any weights matrix outside a small class of exceptions, there exists a positive measure set of regression spaces such that the power of the Cli-Ord test vanishes as the autocorrelation increases in a spatial error model. This result extends to the tests that dene the Gaussian power envelope of all invariant tests for residual spatial autocorrelation. In most cases, the regression spaces such that the problem occurs depend on the size of the test, but there also exist regression spaces such that the power vanishes regardless of the size. A characterization of such particularly hostile regression spaces is provided

Does Political and Economic Freedom Matter for Inbound Tourism? A Cross-National Panel Data Estimation

The paper examines the impact of political and economic freedom on inbound tourism for over 110 countries during 1995-2012. Panel country fixed-effects techniques are utilized to examine the relationship after controlling for other factors that contribute to inbound tourism. The results show that civil liberties and economic freedom (among several other freedom measures) are positively and significantly associated with inbound tourism. Examination of the moderation effect reveals that civil liberties (economic freedom) tend to play a more influential role on inbound tourism when the level of economic freedom (civil liberties) is relatively low

Overtime working, the Phillips curve and the wage curve: British engineering, 1926-66

This paper shows that wage-unemployment elasticities derived from estimated wage curves and Phillips curves may be critically dependent on the measurement of wages. Incorporating hourly wage earnings, that include the influence of overtime payments, can lead to seriously distorted results. Meaningful elasticities are obtained only if hourly standard wages form the basis of analysis. Work is based on a unique data set describing two homogeneous blue-collar occupational groups - skilled fitters and unskilled labourers - in the British engineering industry. Each group is also divided into timeworkers and piece-rate workers. Data are aggregated into a panel of 28 local labour markets and cover the highly contrasting periods, 1928-1938 and 1954-1966