Optimal design of studies of influenza transmission in households. I: Case-ascertained studies

Case-ascertained household transmission studies, in which households including an index case are recruited and followed up, are invaluable to understanding the epidemiology of influenza. We used a simulation approach parameterized with data from household transmission studies to evaluate alternative study designs. We compared studies that relied on self-reported illness in household contacts vs. studies that used home visits to collect swab specimens for virological confirmation of secondary infections, allowing for the trade-off between sample size vs. intensity of follow-up given a fixed budget. For studies estimating the secondary attack proportion, 2-3 follow-up visits with specimens collected from all members regardless of illness were optimal. However, for studies comparing secondary attack proportions between two or more groups, such as controlled intervention studies, designs with reactive home visits following illness reports in contacts were most powerful, while a design with one home visit optimally timed also performed well. © 2011 Cambridge University Press.published_or_final_versio

Transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease and its potential driving factors in Hong Kong

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Behavioural changes in relation to risk perception and prevention of avian and human influenza in the general population of Hong Kong, 2006 to 2010

Conference Theme: Translating Health Research into Policy and Practice for Health of the PopulationPoster Presentation: abstract no. P84-Ab0047BACKGROUND: The Hong Kong government has introduced a series of progressive measures on importation, farming and retail of live poultry to minimize risk of A/H5N1 transmission since 1997. Perceived risk of A/H5N1 and related preventions could decline as these macro-level policies minimizing human-chicken contact. This may paradoxically increase population risk of other influenza and respiratory infection due to reduced preventive behaviors. OBJECTIVES: A follow-up survey in 2010 was conducted to investigate change of live poultry exposure, risk perception and prevention of A/H5N1 among respondents who participated in the random household telephone survey in 2006. METHODS: Totally, of 1,760 respondents who completed the 2006 survey, 680 could be traced and ...published_or_final_versio

Experimental Identification of the Kink Instability as a Poloidal Flux Amplification Mechanism for Coaxial Gun Spheromak Formation

The magnetohydrodynamic kink instability is observed and identified experimentally as a poloidal flux amplification mechanism for coaxial gun spheromak formation. Plasmas in this experiment fall into three distinct regimes which depend on the peak gun current to magnetic flux ratio, with (I) low values resulting in a straight plasma column with helical magnetic field, (II) intermediate values leading to kinking of the column axis, and (III) high values leading immediately to a detached plasma. Onset of column kinking agrees quantitatively with the Kruskal-Shafranov limit, and the kink acts as a dynamo which converts toroidal to poloidal flux. Regime II clearly leads to both poloidal flux amplification and the development of a spheromak configuration.Comment: accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Ullemar's formula for the Jacobian of the complex moment mapping

The complex moment sequence m(P) is assigned to a univalent polynomial P by the Cauchy transform of the P(D), where D is the unit disk. We establish the representation of the Jacobian det dm(P) in terms of roots of the derivative P'. Combining this result with the special decomposition for the Hurwitz determinants, we prove a formula for the Jacobian which was previously conjectured by C. Ullemar. As a consequence, we show that the boundary of the class of all locally univalent polynomials in $U$ is contained in the union of three irreducible algebraic surfaces.Comment: 14 pages, submitted for "Complex Variables. Theory and Application

Submergence of magnetic flux in interaction of sunspot groups

Submergence of magnetic flux is demonstrated in the process of evolution of sunspot groups NOAA 6850 (26 Sep.-07 Oct. 1991) and 7220/22 (06-17 July 1992). In both cases new magnetic flux emerges immediately behind an existing spotgroup. The new flux does not interact with the old one, as can be seen in YOHKOH X-ray images, so no significant flare activity occurs, although umbrae of different magnetic polarity collide. In both cases the quickly forward moving p-spots of the new flux force the submergence of the f-spots of the older region, these being squeezed from two sides between the old and new p-spots. This leads to the disappearance of about 16 1021 Mx of f-polarity in AR 6850. In the case of this region the submerged flux interacts with newly emerging magnetic fields and in the next rotation continues its life as the complex and eruptive AR 6891. In AR 7220/22, spots of both polarities submerge in the intermediate part of the complex between the old leader of AR 7220 and the quickly growing AR 7222, leaving in the next rotation a bipolar-looking group (AR 7248), consisting of two p-polarity spots. So, submergence of magnetic flux due to interaction of old and new activity may play an important role in the decay of sunspot groups

Concordance of interim and final estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System meets twice a year to generate a recommendation for the composition of the seasonal influenza vaccine. Interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates provide a preliminary indication of influenza vaccine performance during the season and may be useful for decision making. We reviewed 17 pairs of studies reporting 33 pairs of interim and final estimates using the test-negative design to evaluate whether interim estimates can reliably predict final estimates. We examined features of the study design that may be correlated with interim estimates being substantially different from their final estimates and identified differences related to change in study period and concomitant changes in sample size, proportion vaccinated and proportion of cases. An absolute difference of no more than 10% between interim and final estimates was found for 18 of 33 reported pairs of estimates, including six of 12 pairs reporting VE against any influenza, six of 10 for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, four of seven for influenza A(H3N2) and two of four for influenza B. While we identified inconsistencies in the methods, the similarities between interim and final estimates support the utility of generating and disseminating preliminary estimates of VE while virus circulation is ongoing.VK Leung, BJ Cowling, S Feng, SG Sulliva

A Spherical Plasma Dynamo Experiment

We propose a plasma experiment to be used to investigate fundamental properties of astrophysical dynamos. The highly conducting, fast-flowing plasma will allow experimenters to explore systems with magnetic Reynolds numbers an order of magnitude larger than those accessible with liquid-metal experiments. The plasma is confined using a ring-cusp strategy and subject to a toroidal differentially rotating outer boundary condition. As proof of principle, we present magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the proposed experiment. When a von K\'arm\'an-type boundary condition is specified, and the magnetic Reynolds number is large enough, dynamo action is observed. At different values of the magnetic Prandtl and Reynolds numbers the simulations demonstrate either laminar or turbulent dynamo action

Hall magnetohydrodynamics of partially ionized plasmas

The Hall effect arises in a plasma when electrons are able to drift with the magnetic field but ions cannot. In a fully-ionized plasma this occurs for frequencies between the ion and electron cyclotron frequencies because of the larger ion inertia. Typically this frequency range lies well above the frequencies of interest (such as the dynamical frequency of the system under consideration) and can be ignored. In a weakly-ionized medium, however, the Hall effect arises through a different mechanism -- neutral collisions preferentially decouple ions from the magnetic field. This typically occurs at much lower frequencies and the Hall effect may play an important role in the dynamics of weakly-ionised systems such as the Earth's ionosphere and protoplanetary discs. To clarify the relationship between these mechanisms we develop an approximate single-fluid description of a partially ionized plasma that becomes exact in the fully-ionized and weakly-ionized limits. Our treatment includes the effects of ohmic, ambipolar, and Hall diffusion. We show that the Hall effect is relevant to the dynamics of a partially ionized medium when the dynamical frequency exceeds the ratio of ion to bulk mass density times the ion-cyclotron frequency, i.e. the Hall frequency. The corresponding length scale is inversely proportional to the ion to bulk mass density ratio as well as to the ion-Hall beta parameter.Comment: 11 page, 1 figure, typos removed, numbers in tables revised; accepted for publication in MNRA

Identification of gravity waves in hydrodynamical simulations

The excitation of internal gravity waves by an entropy bubble oscillating in an isothermal atmosphere is investigated using direct two-dimensional numerical simulations. The oscillation field is measured by a projection of the simulated velocity field onto the anelastic solutions of the linear eigenvalue problem for the perturbations. This facilitates a quantitative study of both the spectrum and the amplitudes of excited g-modes.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, Appendices only available onlin