Top ten risk factors for morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic systolic heart failure and elevated heart rate: the SHIFT risk model

Aims We identified easily obtained baseline characteristics associated with outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure (HF) and elevated heart rate (HR) receiving contemporary guideline-recommended therapy in the SHIFT trial, and used them to develop a prognostic model. Methods We selected the 10 best predictors for each of four outcomes (cardiovascular death or HF hospitalisation; all-cause mortality; cardiovascular mortality; and HF hospitalisation). All variables with p &#60; 0.05 for association were entered into a forward stepwise Cox regression model. Our initial analysis excluded baseline therapies, though randomisation to ivabradine or placebo was forced into the model for the composite endpoint and HF hospitalisation. Results Increased resting HR, low ejection fraction, raised creatinine, New York Heart Association class III/IV, longer duration of HF, history of left bundle branch block, low systolic blood pressure and, for three models, age were strong predictors of all outcomes. Additional predictors were low body mass index, male gender, ischaemic HF, low total cholesterol, no history of hyperlipidaemia or dyslipidaemia and presence of atrial fibrillation/flutter. The c-statistics for the four outcomes ranged from 67.6% to 69.5%. There was no evidence for lack of fit of the models with the exception of all-cause mortality (p = 0.017). Similar results were found including baseline therapies. Conclusion The SHIFT Risk Model includes simple, readily obtainable clinical characteristics to produce important prognostic information in patients with chronic HF, systolic dysfunction, and elevated HR. This may help better calibrate management to individual patient risk.</p

Effect of visit-to-visit variation of heart rate and systolic blood pressure on outcomes in chronic systolic heart failure: results from the Systolic Heart Failure Treatment With the If Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHIFT) trial

Background: Elevated resting heart rate (HR) and low systolic blood pressure (SBP) are related to poor outcomes in heart failure (HF). The association between visit-to-visit variation in SBP and HR and risk in HF is unknown. Methods and Results: In Systolic Heart Failure Treatment with the If inhibitor ivabradine Trial (SHIFT) patients, we evaluated relationships between mean HR, mean SBP, and visit-to-visit variations (coefficient of variation [CV]=SD/mean×100%) in SBP and HR (SBP-CV and HR-CV, respectively) and primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular mortality or HF hospitalization), its components, all-cause mortality, and all-cause hospitalization. High HR and low SBP were closely associated with risk for primary endpoint, all-cause mortality, and HF hospitalization. The highest number of primary endpoint events occurred in the highest HR tertile (38.8% vs 16.4% lowest tertile; P&lt;0.001). For HR-CV, patients at highest risk were those in the lowest tertile. Patients in the lowest thirds of mean SBP and SBP-CV had the highest risk. The combination of high HR and low HR-CV had an additive deleterious effect on risk, as did that of low SBP and low SBP-CV. Ivabradine reduced mean HR and increased HR-CV, and increased SBP and SBP-CV slightly. Conclusions: Beyond high HR and low SBP, low HR-CV and low SBP-CV are predictors of cardiovascular outcomes with additive effects on risk in HF, but with an unknown effect size. Beyond HR reduction, ivabradine increases HR-CV. Low visit-to-visit variation of HR and SBP might signal risk of cardiovascular outcomes in systolic HF. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.isrctn.com/. Unique identifier: ISRCTN70429960

Efficacy profile of ivabradine in patients with heart failure plus angina pectoris

Objectives: In the Systolic Heart Failure Treatment with the If Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHIFT), slowing of the heart rate with ivabradine reduced cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalizations among patients with systolic chronic heart failure (CHF). Subsequently, in the Study Assessing the Morbidity-Mortality Benefits of the If Inhibitor Ivabradine in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease (SIGNIFY) slowing of the heart rate in patients without CHF provided no benefit for cardiovascular death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (primary composite end point), with secondary analyses suggesting possible harm in the angina subgroup. Therefore, we examined the impact of ivabradine in the patients with CHF plus angina in SHIFT. Methods: SHIFT enrolled adults with stable, symptomatic CHF, a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and a sinus rhythm with a resting heart rate ≥70 bpm. Outcomes were the SHIFT and SIGNIFY primary composite end points and their components. Results: Of 6,505 patients in SHIFT, 2,220 (34%) reported angina at randomization. Ivabradine numerically, but not significantly, reduced the SIGNIFY primary composite end point by 8, 11 and 11% in the SHIFT angina subgroup, nonangina subgroup and overall population, respectively. Ivabradine also reduced the SHIFT primary composite end point in all 3 subgroups. Conclusions: In SHIFT, ivabradine showed consistent reduction of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with CHF; similar results were seen in the subgroup of SHIFT patients with angina

Temporal variations in the acoustic signal from faculae

The integrated brightness of the Sun shows variability on time-scales from minutes to decades. This variability is mainly caused by pressure mode oscillations, by granulation and by dark spots and bright faculae on the surface of the Sun. By analyzing the frequency spectrum of the integrated brightness we can obtain greater knowledge about these phenomena. It is shown how the frequency spectrum of the integrated brightness of the Sun in the frequency range from 0.1 to 3.2 mHz shows clear signs of both granulation, faculae and p-mode oscillations and that the measured characteristic time-scales and amplitudes of the acoustic signals from granulation and faculae are consistent with high-resolution observations of the solar surface. Using 13 years of observations of the Sun's integrated brightness from the VIRGO instrument on the SOHO satellite it is shown that the significance of the facular component varies with time and that it has a significance above 0.99 around half the time. Furthermore, an analysis of the temporal variability in the measured amplitudes of both the granulation, faculae and p-mode oscillation components in the frequency spectrum reveals that the amplitude of the p-mode oscillation component shows variability that follows the solar cycles, while the amplitudes of the granulation and facular components show signs of quasi-annual and quasi-biennial variability, respectively.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Budget impact of adding ivabradine to standard of care in patients with chronic systolic heart failure in the United States

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) costs $21 billion annually in direct health care costs, 80 OBJECTIVE: To estimate the budget impact of ivabradine from a U.S. commercial payer perspective. METHODS: A budget impact model estimated the per-member-per month (PMPM) impact of introducing ivabradine to existing formularies by comparing a reference scenario (SoC) and a new drug scenario (ivabradine + SoC) in hypothetical 1 million-member commercial and Medicare Advantage plans. In both scenarios, U.S. claims data were used for the reference cumulative annual rates of hospitalizations (HF, non-HF cardiovascular [CV], and non-CV), and hospitalization rates were adjusted using SHIFT data. The model controlled for mortality risk using SHIFT and U.S. life table data, and hospitalization costs were obtained from U.S. claims data: HF-related =$37,507; non-HF CV = $28,951; and non-CV =$17,904. The annualized wholesale acquisition cost of ivabradine was $4,500, with baseline use for this new drug at 2 RESULTS: Based on the approved U.S. indication, approximately 2,000 commercially insured patients from a 1 million-member commercial plan were eligible to receive ivabradine. Ivabradine resulted in a PMPM cost savings of$0.01 and $0.04 in years 1 and 3 of the core model, respectively. After including the acquisition price for ivabradine, the model showed a decrease in total costs in the commercial ($991,256 and $474,499, respectively) and Medicare populations ($13,849,262 and $4,280,291, respectively) in year 1. This decrease was driven by ivabradine’s reduction in hospitalization rates. For the core model, the estimated pharmacy-only PMPM in year 1 was$0.01 for the commercial population and $0.24 for the Medicare Advantage population. CONCLUSIONS: Adding ivabradine to SoC led to lower average annual treatment costs. The negative PMPM budget impact indicates that ivabradine is an affordable option for U.S. payers

Incremental benefit of drug therapies for chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a network meta-analysis

Aims: A network meta‐analysis (NMA) of all recommended drug groups for the treatment of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), including their combinations, was performed to assess the relative efficacy and incremental benefit. Methods and results: A search was made in biomedical databases for randomized controlled trials published between 1987 and 2017 on angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), beta‐blockers (BBs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), ivabradine (IVA), or angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI). A total of 58 relevant trials were identified. The relative efficacy of each treatment group (or combination) in terms of all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, all‐cause hospitalizations and hospitalizations for heart failure, per patient‐year of follow‐up, were combined in a random‐effects Bayesian NMA. The pairwise comparison between each regimen and for each outcome was estimated. The NMA was dominated by 15 large‐scale trials with between 1984 and 18 898 patient‐years of follow‐up. Combinations of drug groups showed incremental benefits on outcomes over single groups. The most effective combinations were ARNI+BB + MRA and ACEI+BB + MRA + IVA, showing reductions in all‐cause mortality (vs. placebo) of 62% and 59%, respectively; hazard ratios were 0.38 [credible interval (CrI) 0.20–0.65] and 0.41 (CrI 0.21–0.70); and in all‐cause hospitalizations with reductions of 42% for both. These two combinations were also the most effective for the other outcomes studied. Conclusion: Our analysis shows that the incremental use of combinations of disease‐modifying therapies has resulted in the progressive improvement in mortality and hospitalization outcomes in HFrEF. Our findings support the current guideline recommendations

Seismology of beta Cephei stars: differentially-rotating models for interpreting the oscillation spectrum of nu-Eridani

A method for the asteroseismic analysis of beta Cephei stars is presented and applied to the star nu Eridani. The method is based on the analysis of rotational splittings, and their asymmetries using differentially-rotating asteroseismic models. Models with masses around 7.13 M_sun, and ages around 14.9 Myr, were found to fit better 10 of the 14 observed frequencies, which were identified as the fundamental radial mode and the three L=1 triplets g, p, and p. The splittings and aymmetries found for these modes recover those provided in the literature, except for p. For this last mode, all its non-axysimmetric components are predicted by the models. Moreover, opposite signs of the observed and predicted splitting asymmetries are found. If identification is confirmed, this can be a very interesting source of information about the internal rotation profile, in particular in the outer regions of the star. In general, the seismic models which include a description for shellular rotation yield slightly better results as compared with those given by uniformly-rotating models. Furthermore, we show that asymmetries are quite dependent on the overshooting of the convective core, which make the present technique suitable for testing the theories describing the angular momentum redistribution and chemical mixing due to rotationally-induced turbulence.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, 8 tables. ApJ (in press

A functional yeast survival screen of tumor-derived cDNA libraries designed to identify anti-apoptotic mammalian oncogenes

Yeast cells can be killed upon expression of pro-apoptotic mammalian proteins. We have established a functional yeast survival screen that was used to isolate novel human anti-apoptotic genes overexpressed in treatment-resistant tumors. The screening of three different cDNA libraries prepared from metastatic melanoma, glioblastomas and leukemic blasts allowed for the identification of many yeast cell death-repressing cDNAs, including 28% of genes that are already known to inhibit apoptosis, 35% of genes upregulated in at least one tumor entity and 16% of genes described as both anti-apoptotic in function and upregulated in tumors. These results confirm the great potential of this screening tool to identify novel anti-apoptotic and tumor-relevant molecules. Three of the isolated candidate genes were further analyzed regarding their anti-apoptotic function in cell culture and their potential as a therapeutic target for molecular therapy. PAICS, an enzyme required for de novo purine biosynthesis, the long non-coding RNA MALAT1 and the MAST2 kinase are overexpressed in certain tumor entities and capable of suppressing apoptosis in human cells. Using a subcutaneous xenograft mouse model, we also demonstrated that glioblastoma tumor growth requires MAST2 expression. An additional advantage of the yeast survival screen is its universal applicability. By using various inducible pro-apoptotic killer proteins and screening the appropriate cDNA library prepared from normal or pathologic tissue of interest, the survival screen can be used to identify apoptosis inhibitors in many different systems

Time to benefit of heart rate reduction with ivabradine in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction

Aims In the SHIFT (Systolic Heart failure treatment with the If inhibitor ivabradine Trial, ISRCTN70429960) study, ivabradine reduced cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in sinus rhythm and with a heart rate (HR) ≥70 bpm. In this study, we sought to determine the clinical significance of the time durations of HR reduction and the significant treatment effect on outcomes among patients with HFrEF. Methods and results The time to statistically significant reduction of the primary outcome (HF hospitalization and cardiovascular death) and its components, all-cause death, and HF death, were assessed in a post-hoc analysis of the SHIFT trial in the overall population (HR ≥70 bpm) and at HR ≥75 bpm, representing the approved label in many countries. Compared to placebo, the primary outcome and HF hospitalizations were significantly reduced at 102 days, while there was no effect on cardiovascular death, all-cause death, and HF death at HR ≥70 bpm. In the population with a baseline HR ≥75 bpm, a reduction of the primary outcome occurred after 67 days, HF hospitalization after 78 days, cardiovascular death after 169 days, death from HF after 157 days and all-cause death after 169 days. Conclusion Treatment with ivabradine should not be deferred in patients in sinus rhythm with a HR of ≥70 bpm to reduce the primary outcome and HF hospitalizations, in particular in patients with HR ≥75 bpm. At HR ≥75 bpm, the time to risk reduction was shorter for reduction of hospitalization and mortality outcomes in patients with HFrEF after initiation of guideline-directed medication, including beta-blockers at maximally tolerated doses