National trends in emergency readmission rates: A longitudinal analysis of administrative data for England between 2006 and 2016

Objective To assess trends in 30-day emergency readmission rates across England over one decade. Design Retrospective study design. Setting 150 non-specialist hospital trusts in England. Participants 23 069 134 patients above 18 years of age who were readmitted following an initial admission (n=62 584 297) between April 2006 and February 2016. Primary and secondary outcomes We examined emergency admissions that occurred within 30 days of discharge from hospital (‘emergency readmissions’) as a measure of healthcare quality. Presented are overall readmission rates, and disaggregated by the nature of the indexed admission, including whether it was elective or emergency, and by clinical health condition recorded. All rates were risk-adjusted for patient age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, comorbidities and length of stay. Results The average risk-adjusted, 30-day readmission rate increased from 6.56% in 2006/2007 to 6.76% (P<0.01) in 2012/2013, followed by a small decrease to 6.64% (P<0.01) in 2015/2016. Emergency readmissions for patients discharged following elective procedures decreased by 0.13% (P<0.05), whereas those following emergency admission increased by 1.27% (P<0.001). Readmission rates for hip or knee replacements decreased (−1.29%; P<0.001); for acute myocardial infarction (−0.04%; P<0.49), stroke (+0.62%; P<0.05), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (+0.41%; P<0.05) and heart failure (+0.15%; P<0.05) remained stable; and for pneumonia (+2.72%; P<0.001), diabetes (+7.09%; P<0.001), cholecystectomy (+1.86%; P<0.001) and hysterectomy (+2.54%; P<0.001) increased. Conclusions Overall, emergency readmission rates in England remained relatively stable across the observation period, with trends of slight increases contained post 2012/2013. However, there were large variations in trends across clinical areas, with some experiencing marked increases in readmission rates. This highlights the need to better understand variations in outcomes across clinical subgroups to allow for targeted interventions that will ensure highest standards of care provided for all patients

Common sequences of emergency readmissions among high-impact users following AAA repair

Introduction The aim of the study was to examine common sequences of causes of readmissions among those patients with multiple hospital admissions, high-impact users, after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to focus on strategies to reduce long-term readmission rate. Methods The patient cohort (2006-2009) included patients from Hospital Episodes Statistics, the national administrative data of all NHS English hospitals, and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory modelling and sequence analysis were performed on the data. Results From a total of 16,973 elective AAA repair patients, 18% (n=3055) were high-impact users. The high-impact users among rAAA repair constituted 17.3% of the patient population (n=4144). There were 2 subtypes of high-impact users, short-term (7.2%) with initial high readmission rate following by rapid decline and chronic high-impact (10.1%) with persistently high readmission rate. Common causes of readmissions following elective AAA repair were respiratory tract infection (7.3%), aortic graft complications (6.0%), unspecified chest pain (5.8%), and gastro-intestinal haemorrhage (4.8%). However, high-impact users included significantly increased number of patients with multiple readmissions and distinct sequences of readmissions mainly consisting of COPD (4.7%), respiratory tract infection (4.7%) and ischaemic heart disease (3.3%). Conclusion A significant number of patients were high-impact users after AAA repair. They had a common and distinct sequence of causes of readmissions following AAA repair, mainly consisting of cardiopulmonary conditions and aortic graft complications. The common causes of long-term mortality were not related to AAA repair. The quality of care can be improved by identifying these patients early and focusing on prevention of cardiopulmonary diseases in the community

Age-related decline in antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated respiratory tract infections in primary care in England following the introduction of a national financial incentive (the Quality Premium) for health commissioners to reduce use of antibiotics in the community: an interrupted time series analysis

Objectives: To assess the impact of the 2015/16 NHS England Quality Premium (which provided a financial incentive for Clinical Commissioning Groups to reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care) on antibiotic prescribing by General Practitioners (GPs) for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Method: Interrupted time series analysis using monthly patient-level consultation and prescribing data obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), between April 2011 and March 2017. The study population comprised patients consulting a GP who were diagnosed with an RTI. We assessed the rate of antibiotic prescribing in patients (both aggregate and stratified by age) with a recorded diagnosis of uncomplicated RTI, before and after the implementation of the Quality Premium. Results: Prescribing rates decreased over the six year study period, with evident seasonality. Notably, there was a 3% drop in the rate of antibiotic prescribing (equating to 14.65 prescriptions per 1,000 RTI consultations) (p<0.05) in April 2015, coinciding with the introduction of the Quality Premium. This reduction was sustained, such that after two years there was a 3% decrease in prescribing relative to that expected had the pre-intervention trend continued. There was also a concurrent 2% relative reduction in the rate of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing. Antibiotic prescribing for RTIs diagnosed in children showed the greatest decline with a 6% relative change two years after the intervention. Of the RTI indications studied, the greatest reductions in antibiotic prescribing were seen for patients with sore throats. Conclusions: Community prescribing of antibiotics for RTIs significantly decreased following the introduction of the Quality Premium, with the greatest reduction seen in younger patients

Funnel plots, performance variation and the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project 2003–2004

BACKGROUND: Clinical governance requires health care professionals to improve standards of care and has resulted in comparison of clinical performance data. The Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (a UK cardiology dataset) tabulates its performance. However funnel plots are the display method of choice for institutional comparison. We aimed to demonstrate that funnel plots may be derived from MINAP data and allow more meaningful interpretation of data. METHODS: We examined the attainment of National Service Framework standards for all hospitals (n = 230) and all patients (n = 99,133) in the MINAP database between 1(st )April 2003 and 31(st )March 2004. We generated funnel plots (with control limits at 3 sigma) of Door to Needle and Call to Needle thrombolysis times, and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers and statins post myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Only 87,427 patients fulfilled criteria for analysis of the use of secondary prevention drugs and 15,111 patients for analysis by Door to Needle and Call to Needle times (163 hospitals achieved the standards for Door to Needle times and 215 were within or above their control limits). One hundred and sixteen hospitals fell outside the 'within 25%' and 'more than 25%' standards for Call to Needle times, but 28 were below the lower control limits. Sixteen hospitals failed to reach the standards for aspirin usage post AMI and 24 remained below the lower control limits. Thirty hospitals were below the lower CL for beta-blocker usage and 49 outside the standard. Statin use was comparable. CONCLUSION: Funnel plots may be applied to a complex dataset and allow visual comparison of data derived from multiple health-care units. Variation is readily identified permitting units to appraise their practices so that effective quality improvement may take place

Guidelines for Designing Social Robots as Second Language Tutors

In recent years, it has been suggested that social robots have potential as tutors and educators for both children and adults. While robots have been shown to be effective in teaching knowledge and skill-based topics, we wish to explore how social robots can be used to tutor a second language to young children. As language learning relies on situated, grounded and social learning, in which interaction and repeated practice are central, social robots hold promise as educational tools for supporting second language learning. This paper surveys the developmental psychology of second language learning and suggests an agenda to study how core concepts of second language learning can be taught by a social robot. It suggests guidelines for designing robot tutors based on observations of second language learning in human–human scenarios, various technical aspects and early studies regarding the effectiveness of social robots as second language tutors

The association between day of delivery and obstetric outcomes: an observational study

Study question What is the association between day of delivery and measures of quality and safety of maternity services, particularly comparing weekend with weekday performance? Methods This observational study examined outcomes for maternal and neonatal records (1 332 835 deliveries and 1 349 599 births between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2012) within the nationwide administrative dataset for English National Health Service hospitals by day of the week. Groups were defined by day of admission (for maternal indicators) or delivery (for neonatal indicators) rather than by day of complication. Logistic regression was used to adjust for case mix factors including gestational age, birth weight, and maternal age. Staffing factors were also investigated using multilevel models to evaluate the association between outcomes and level of consultant presence. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and—for both neonate and mother—infections, emergency readmissions, and injuries. Study answer and limitations Performance across four of the seven measures was significantly worse for women admitted, and babies born, at weekends. In particular, the perinatal mortality rate was 7.3 per 1000 babies delivered at weekends, 0.9 per 1000 higher than for weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.13). No consistent association between outcomes and staffing was identified, although trusts that complied with recommended levels of consultant presence had a perineal tear rate of 3.0% compared with 3.3% for non-compliant services (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 1.00 to 1.45). Limitations of the analysis include the method of categorising performance temporally, which was mitigated by using a midweek reference day (Tuesday). Further research is needed to investigate possible bias from unmeasured confounders and explore the nature of the causal relationship. What this study adds This study provides an evaluation of the “weekend effect” in obstetric care, covering a range of outcomes. The results would suggest approximately 770 perinatal deaths and 470 maternal infections per year above what might be expected if performance was consistent across women admitted, and babies born, on different days of the week

Comparative epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection in England and the US

Objective: To examine whether there is an epidemiological difference between Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) inpatient populations in England and the United States. Design: A cross-sectional study. Setting: National administrative inpatient discharge data from England (Hospital Episode Statistics) and the United States (National Inpatient Sample) in 2012. Participants: De-identifiable non-obstetric inpatient discharges from the national datasets were used to estimate national CDI incidence in the United States and England using ICD9-CM(008.45) and ICD10(A04.7) respectively. Main outcome measures: The rate of CDI was calculated per 100,000 population using national population estimates. Rate per 100,000 inpatient discharges was also calculated separated by primary and secondary diagnosis of CDI. Age, sex and Elixhauser comorbidities profiles were examined. Results: The US had a higher rate of CDI compared to England: 115.1/100,000 vs. 19.3/100,000 population (p<0.001). CDI age profiles differed between the countries (p<0.001): in England, patients ≥75years constitute a larger proportion of CDI cases, whilst those aged 25-70 constitute more cases in the US(p<0.001). Overall adjusted odds of CDI in females compared to males was elevated in both England (OR1.26 95%CI[1.21,1.31] p<0.001) and the US (OR1.20 95%CI[1.18,1.22] p<0.001). The proportion of CDI patients with comorbidities was greater in the US compared to England apart from dementia, which was greater in England (9.63% vs. 1.25%,p<0.0001). Conclusions: The 2012 inpatient CDI rate within the US was much higher than in England. Age and co-morbidity profiles also differed between CDI patients in both countries. The reasons for this are likely multi-factorial but may reflect national infection control policy

Socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity inequalities in disruption to NHS hospital admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national observational study

Introduction Hospital admissions in many countries fell dramatically at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Less is known about how care patterns differed by patient groups. We sought to determine whether areas with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation or larger ethnic minority populations saw larger falls in emergency and planned admissions in England. Methods We conducted a national observational study of hospital care in the English National Health Service (NHS) in 2019–2020. Weekly volumes of elective (planned) and emergency admissions in 2020 compared with 2019 were calculated for each census area. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to estimate the reductions in volumes for areas in different quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation and ethnic minority populations after controlling for national time trends and local area composition. Results Between March and December 2020, there were 35.5% (3.0 million) fewer elective admissions and 22.0% (1.2 million) fewer emergency admissions with a non-COVID-19 primary diagnosis than in 2019. Areas with the largest share of ethnic minority populations experienced a 36.7% (95% CI 24.1% to 49.3%) larger reduction in non-primary COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with those with the smallest. The most deprived areas experienced a 10.1% (95% CI 2.6% to 17.7%) smaller reduction in non-COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with the least deprived. These patterns are not explained by differential prevalence of COVID-19 cases by area. Conclusions Even in a healthcare system founded on the principle of equal access for equal need, the impact of COVID-19 on NHS hospital care for non-COVID patients has not been spread evenly by ethnicity and deprivation in England. While we cannot conclusively determine the mechanisms behind these differences, they risk exacerbating prepandemic health inequalities. Data availability statement Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available

Investigating the association of alerts from a national mortality surveillance system with subsequent hospital mortality in England: An interrupted time series analysis.

Objective To investigate the association between alerts from a national hospital mortality surveillance system and subsequent trends in relative risk of mortality. Background There is increasing interest in performance monitoring in the NHS. Since 2007, Imperial College London has generated monthly mortality alerts, based on statistical process control charts and using routinely collected hospital administrative data, for all English acute NHS hospital trusts. The impact of this system has not yet been studied. Methods We investigated alerts sent to Acute National Health Service hospital trusts in England in 2011–2013. We examined risk-adjusted mortality (relative risk) for all monitored diagnosis and procedure groups at a hospital trust level for 12 months prior to an alert and 23 months post alert. We used an interrupted time series design with a 9-month lag to estimate a trend prior to a mortality alert and the change in trend after, using generalised estimating equations. Results On average there was a 5% monthly increase in relative risk of mortality during the 12 months prior to an alert (95% CI 4% to 5%). Mortality risk fell, on average by 61% (95% CI 56% to 65%), during the 9-month period immediately following an alert, then levelled to a slow decline, reaching on average the level of expected mortality within 18 months of the alert. Conclusions Our results suggest an association between an alert notification and a reduction in the risk of mortality, although with less lag time than expected. It is difficult to determine any causal association. A proportion of alerts may be triggered by random variation alone and subsequent falls could simply reflect regression to the mean. Findings could also indicate that some hospitals are monitoring their own mortality statistics or other performance information, taking action prior to alert notification.</p